Posted on 06/27/2002 7:45:58 AM PDT by NormsRevenge
Would Aliens Visit?
Thu Jun 27, 8:42 AM ET
By Seth Shostak
Senior Astronomer, Project Phoenix, SPACE.com
When it comes to alien activities, visiting Earth seems to be pretty high on the "to do" list. But does that make sense?
|
|
But let’s back off to our neutral corners for a moment and consider an intimately related question: why would aliens be visiting now? According to the most popular view of this matter, extraterrestrial craft have been flitting across our skies since 1947. That’s 55 years in a planetary history of 4,600,000,000 years. If we assume for the moment that these claims are real, this chronology tells us immediately that either (1) we are the beneficiaries of an enormously rare event (one chance in 100 million, or if you want to argue that no aliens would visit until they detected oxygen in our atmosphere, one chance in 40 million), (2) the aliens routinely visit Earth, or (3) our activities (nuclear tests, environmental degradation, etc.) have attracted the aliens’ attention, and encouraged them to drop by.
The first possibility, that we just happened to luck out (being around for the first and only alien encounter), is less probable than that you – not someone, but you – will win next month’s lottery jackpot. It strains credulity, to use polite vernacular.
The second possibility, that Earth hosts extraterrestrials on a routine basis, and therefore a visit during your lifetime is not particularly improbable, deserves a bit more scrutiny. The question is, how often do they visit? If it’s only once in a few tens of millions of years, we’re back to the first possibility, and the odds are highly stacked against you being one of the lucky visitees. But some folk claim that aliens have glissaded to Earth in historical times (five millennia ago, when the pyramids were built, or one millennium ago, when the Nazca Indians elected to decorate the Peruvian desert floor with glyphs of turkeys and other of their favorite fauna). If any of this is true, it argues for visits at least once every 1,000 years or so. The problem with this is that – barring some reason for them to visit humans in particular (a possibility we consider below) – it implies that there have been millions of expeditions to Earth! We may send the occasional anthropological research team to Borneo, but we don’t send millions. And it’s a lot easier to get to Borneo than to traverse hundreds or thousands of light-years. This, too, seems to be an unlikely explanation for visitors now.
Finally, we consider door number three – we have enticed the aliens with human activity. Let’s set aside the question of whether advanced galactic societies would have the slightest interest in our wars, our pollution problems, or our reproductive systems. The real question is, how would they know about us at all?
In fact, there’s only one clear and persistent "signal" that Homo sapiens has ever sent to the stars: our high-frequency radio transmissions, including television and radar. The Victorians (let alone the Egyptians or the Nazca Indians), despite all their technical sophistication, could never have been spotted from light-years away. Humans have been making their presence known to the universe only for the last 70 years or so.
And that’s a problem. It means that even if, after receiving an earthly transmission, the aliens can immediately scramble their spacecraft and fly to Earth at the speed of light, they can’t be farther than 8 light-years away to have arrived by 1947. There are four star systems within this distance. Count ‘em, four. We’re back to winning the lottery.
What about warp drive? Maybe the aliens can create wormholes and get here in essentially no time. It doesn’t matter. Our signals travel at the speed of light, and this means that even with infinitely fast spacecraft, the aliens can’t be farther off than 15 light-years to have reached our lovely planet by 1947. The number of star systems within 15 light-years is about three dozen. There would have to be 10 billion technically sophisticated societies in the Galaxy to have a reasonable chance of finding one camped out among the nearest three dozen stars. That’s optimism of a high level indeed.
It’s nice to think that either Earth or its human inhabitants have not only attracted the attention of galactic neighbors, but encouraged them to visit. But frankly, the numbers don’t give much support to this somewhat self-indulgent idea.
Visit SPACE.com for more space-related news including videos, launch coverage and interactive experiences. Check out our huge collection of Image Galleries and Satellite Views from Space. Follow the latest developments in the search for life in our universe in our SETI: Search for Life section. Sign up for our free daily email newsletter today!
Why do people always assume "aliens" are extra-TERRESTRIAL visitors? What if they are extra-DIMENSIONAL visitors who travel no distance whatsoever to visit us?
All New-Age literature (And I mean unanimously) claim that soon "benign aliens" will visit our planet after FIRST removing "people with outdated and backwards modes of thought". (i.e. Christians) According to NewAgers, Christians who believe the Bible are what's holding Earth back from a coming "golden age of enlightenment" which will be ushered in by these wonderful alien beings.
Putting two and two together, suppose those of us who believe the Bible are right. Suppose the Bible is truly the Word of God, and everything it says is true. Satan is going to have to explain away "The Rapture", when tens of millions of people vanish into thin air.
Think about it.
Whether aliens have visited or not aside, IF they have, why would anyone assume that the Roswell incident was the very first time such an event had ever happened?
The "evidence" (such as there is) suggests (to those inclined to follow such things) that these visitations have been recorded as a part of our art and lore for hundreds if not thousands of years.
The author's entire thesis seems to be built around the date of 1947 and therefore is complete rubbish from any viewpoint.
Roswell happened within MONTHS of Israel's re-birth as a nation, after it was an obvious done deal that Israel would be given statehood.
Think not. Just watch from a safe distance.
uh... berned, I am obviously missing some connection between these two events... my question was directed at how the author settled on the date of 1947 for his supposed 'first visit' by an alien civilization.
What does "Israel's rebirth" have to do with this topic? Are there some dots you can connect for us all?
Yes indeed. The theory has been around in Christian circles for many years, and is not my own to take credit for. It goes something like this, and of course, those who don't believe the inerrantness of the Bible won't buy the theory either...
There are good arguments that the next big prophetic event will be the Rapture of the Church, which will happen before the Tribulation. (Some disagree as to the timing of the Rapture, but lets assume the pre-trib'ers are correct). Millions of Christians and Bible believers will vanish into thin air in the blink of an eye. (This is the whole premise of the mega-million selling "Left Behind" series). Now...
Satan is going to have to find some way explain away the Rapture. (Or else those Left Behind will put two and two together pretty fast, and Satan will have no way for his boy, the anti-christ, to take over a world that is "on to him")
So... what cover story? The theory is that UFO's are demonic apparitions/deceptions. (See my note #6.) When Roswell happened, the UN had already agreed in principal to Israel's statehood, and were just working out the details. (I.O.W., Satan knew that Israel's re-birth was a done deal).
The reason Israel's re-birth is crucial, is that God prophesied in Ezekiel, and Revelation and many other places, that in the end-times, Israel would be back in the land. Roswell was sort of Satan hitting the panic button. He had to get the deception out there for public consumption so that if the Rapture happened, say in 1948, he'd have his cover story in place.
By now, New Age literature has so hammered home the concept of "benign aliens" coming to "free us" after they zap those backward thinking Bible believers off the earth, that Satan's necessary deception is sufficiently in-place. If UFO's were to make a mass "landing" tommorow, would people worldwide really be THAT flabbergasted? It's been such a part of our entertainment and media culture for so many years, that people are pretty ready to just accept it.
Christians have been so effectively demonized in our culture and media, that the vast majority of people on earth will be GLAD to be rid of us. Everything is pretty well set up for what Jesus Christ said would be the "age of deception". There is much more to the theory, but I don't want to overload anybody.
Let's get back to the question I originally asked, "Why and How did the author settle on the date of 1947? Roswell?"
Not that I don't see some small amount of logic in your theory, but... for those inclined to believe such "evidence" there is, in fact, evidence available to indicate "visits" since at least ancient Sumarian times. For Biblical buffs, the Nephilm are also easily explained away as "visitors" from another civilization or another dimension (insert your theory here)
So what makes the author choose Roswell as "the first" visit? and doesn't this assumption on the author's part make the entire story just plain old BS?
I won't spoil it if you haven't seen it.
I believe it probable that we are "out in the sticks" and thus undiscovered (in which case purposely trying to contact 'aliens' is either ineffective and probably a very, very Bad Idea.
Or, we are visited frequently but are not sufficiently aware to realize this. In any case, it's pretty damn strange state of affairs no matter what the deal is.
Visit?!!! Heck, half of Mexico is living and working here....
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.