Posted on 06/27/2002 5:33:42 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
CAIRO, June 26 (Reuters) - A cautious nod from America's Arab allies to Washington's new Middle East agenda is at odds with popular scorn, but is a pragmatic move to maintain influence in the only game in town, analysts said on Wednesday.
Egypt and Jordan -- the only two Arab states which have peace treaties with Israel -- called the long-awaited policy speech by President George W. Bush a good first step out of a regional logjam, while glossing over what amounted to a call for Palestinian President Yasser Arafat's removal.
Saudi Arabia, another vital U.S. ally and key player in peace efforts, has made no official comment yet. But newspaper editorials, which normally reflect government thinking, said the speech was the first time Washington had spelled out a vision and timeline for a viable Palestinian state.
"For Egypt or Jordan or Saudi Arabia, the point now is to get out of the deadlock," said Egyptian analyst Randa Ashmawi.
"Anything, absolutely anything has to be done to get out of the present situation. Bush's speech comes as something that could give a push...Even though it is not very clear, it is the only thing on the table at the moment," she said.
With the Oslo interim peace accords widely considered dead, and the only global superpower calling the shots in a world traumatised by September 11, analysts said moderates had little choice but to back the U.S. plan if they wanted to be involved.
INFLUENCE THROUGH ENGAGEMENT
But aware of an angry public which sees Washington in Israel's corner, analysts say these Arab governments were at pains to highlight elements in the speech they supported -- like the creation of a Palestinian state and Israeli withdrawal -- while steering clear of the price Arabs would have to pay.
Such a strategy could let them influence what was still a skeletal peace framework through engagement, instead of forfeiting input by rejecting the speech.
They also note that Washington's controversial call for a new Palestinian leadership may have struck a latent chord with some Arab leaders who consider Arafat yesterday's man. While stressing that Palestinians have the right to choose their own leader, no Arab state has offered unwavering support for Arafat.
"No one likes to bet on a losing horse," said Jordanian analyst Fahd Fanek. "The (political) death sentence against Arafat has been issued and he is being shown the door."
An Egyptian official said his country had long been urging for greater reforms within the Palestinian Authority. "We believe Arafat should have done a lot more. We support him, but at the same time we don't want to alienate the United States."
In a post-September 11 world, Washington's Arab allies also do not want to be seen backing a man whom Washington links to terrorism, lest they get sucked into a perceived "axis of evil".
"Arab leaders are terrorised. Talk now is about changing regimes and replacing leaders. If they don't go along (with the United States), they are afraid that their time (to be replaced) would come," Fanek said.
KEEPING CONTROL
One Arab official acknowledged that his government's support for the Bush proposal ran counter to public anger, but said it was acting in the national interest.
"Most of the public believes that Mr Bush has adopted the Israeli agenda entirely, even though there were positive points in the speech. There is a dilemma, a gap (between the government response and popular sentiment). But sometimes the leadership knows better than the public," he said.
Analysts say Arab moderates are worried about losing their role lest Israel or extremists at home dictate the way ahead.
"A stiff Arab rejection of Bush's speech will only please Israel, which will do whatever it wants," the London-based pan-Arab newspaper Asharq al-Awsat said, pointing out that the U.S. plan could eventually mean painful concessions for Israel on issues such as land, refugees and settlements.
Taha Abdel Aleem, deputy director of Egypt's al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, said Arab states like Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt were clinging to any initiative which might quell the violence and so undermine extremists who feed on popular frustration with the conflict.
"If the (current) situation continues, the radicals will not only get the upper hand in Palestine, but in the whole Arab world," he said.
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