Posted on 06/26/2002 3:01:08 PM PDT by Axion
Pakistan: Response to Al Qaeda Attack May Hurt Musharraf Summary
26 June 2002
Reported al Qaeda militants ambushed and killed 10 Pakistani soldiers near the western border June 25, the first time Pakistani soldiers have been killed in the hunt for al Qaeda. The country's army likely will respond in kind, a choice that is wise militarily but dangerous politically for President Pervez Musharraf.
Analysis
Pakistani forces backed by helicopters scoured for fleeing al Qaeda fighters in tribal areas near the western border with Afghanistan June 26, after 10 Pakistani troops were killed during a raid on an extremist hideout. These were the first known combat deaths among Pakistani soldiers in the hunt for Taliban and al Qaeda fugitives along the border.
Though there is still debate over Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's commitment to fighting al Qaeda and other extremist groups, militants on the western border seem to have made up their minds as to where the president stands. The attack signals clearly that the militants have rejected the authority of Musharraf's government. The likely increase in Pakistan military operations that will follow could strengthen the opposition against him.
Pakistani troops have been trying to intercept militants in rugged western Pakistan for months, facing little resistance but also seeing little success. Until now it appeared that al Qaeda and Taliban fighters were content to escape and evade the Pakistani troops. But that has changed.
The recent raid was based on tip-offs from U.S. intelligence agents that 40 to 50 al Qaeda members were hiding in a compound near Azam Warsak, about 24 miles from the Afghan border. The militants, who reportedly included Chechen fighters, ambushed the Pakistanis after inviting them into the compound for a meeting after six hours of negotiations, according to a local journalist cited by Agence France-Presse. More Pakistanis were killed when they rushed in to help their comrades.
The ambush came after several weeks of anti-militant operations ordered by Musharraf. Earlier this month, the president demanded and got a sizable reduction in militant infiltrations into the disputed state of Kashmir. Most reports from the area suggest that the Pakistani army set up enough checkpoints, closed enough camps and intimidated enough militant leaders to cause the drop-off.
For instance, earlier this week Pakistani police arrested around 95 members of Sipah-e-Sahaba of Pakistan and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, two banned extremist groups linked to al Qaeda. And there may be more to come.
A major military operation involving Pakistani and U.S. troops could be launched in western Pakistan in the next few weeks, according to Pakistani media sources. The operation reportedly was given final approval when U.S. Central Command chief Tommy Franks visited Islamabad this week.
Given that questions remain about the loyalty of Pakistan's intelligence service, it appears Musharraf and Washington have created an unofficial, parallel apparatus to use against extremists. Much of the intelligence, oddly enough, is coming from the United States either through the FBI, which is operating in Pakistan's urban centers, or military forces stationed in Afghanistan. Although the United States has little chance of infiltrating militant groups, it can supply imagery, which can easily pinpoint 50 fighters holed up in a compound, or phone intercepts, as the FBI is reportedly doing.
The ambush already has pushed the Pakistani military into action, as more than 500 soldiers have moved into the area and sealed off the village. These efforts likely will become more active throughout western Pakistan and lead to more military clashes throughout the country.
This will make things more difficult for the extremists in the area, but it will also redefine the political balance in the border regions, as the Pakistani government is forced to side more and more with the United States and as the militants attempt to lead all the groups -- Islamist, nationalist or ethnic -- that oppose Musharraf.
More honorable tactics by the Al Qaeda. When we capture any of these goons, we should question them on the spot and shoot them through the head. No quarter in the war on terror.
I look forward to the Pakistani response.
It's an old trick, but once done will not work again. Direct military action will be the mode of operation from now on.
The fact that the jihadis would ambush them is symptomatic of the fact that the Pakistani military has lost the trust of the jihadis. That is a good sign because it means the Pakistani military is finally taking real (and not just cosmetic) action against them.
My attitude toward the Washington Redskins does not make me a very good person to ask about their chances for improvement this year. It doesn't make me a very good person to ask about coaching changes. My opinion hasn't changed in many years, and it's extremely unlikely to ever change and I'm comfortable with that.
It is the same thing with you and Pakistan.
Likewise, if al-Qaeda is ambushing Pakistani soldiers, that is a very good indication that al-Qaeda no longer trusts their former patrons in the Pakistani military and is no longer allied with them. Friends don't ambush each other.
I'm looking forward to news of the retaliation, if it is made public. The next few weeks should be interesting.
The two-nation theory was just an eyewash. The founding of Pakistan was in fact a power grab by rich, influential Muslims of British India who feared political and social marginalization, with a consequent loss of power and wealth, in a Hindu dominated India. The two-nation theory was just something they pulled out of their rear ends to justify it.
IMHO, of course ;-)
It's a more dangerous time now for Musharraf, but it also could rally public support against the terrorists. That is what I hope happens, but I don't know how to predict what the Pakistani public will think. Maybe the Pak papers will give us a clue.
That actually makes more sense than the textbook reason given that the British did it for humanitarian reasons.
But if you're right, those rich influential families should still control Pakistan, and I haven't heard a hint of that.
I doubt it. The Pakistani middle class is intensely nationalistic. So far they've been pretty quiet and have ceded the stage to the mullahs. But more incidents involving dead Pakistani soldiers at the hands of forces supported by Pakistans mullah-faction, and I suspect we will see a strengthening of anti-mullah sentiment in the Pakistani middle class. Once Musharraf has that, he's golden.
They don't anymore. Those families were migrants from India and they dominated the commercial, academic and political spheres of Pakistan in its early years. The first PM of Pakistan was an Indian lawyer from Bombay who drank alcohol and ate pork - Jinnah. The entire government back then was dominated by Indian migrants. The universities were staffed by educated Indian Muslims. The radio stations had Urdu-speakers from India, since Urdu is a north Indian language and there weren't too many Urdu speakers in Pakistan except for the migrants.
Indian migrants dominated a lot, but they never dominated the Army. The Army was primarily Punjabi then and still is. The Indian migrants got marginalized early on, with the first coup by a Punjabi general. Decades of army rule, over time, destroyed any hold the migrants had over Pakistan.
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