Really, that just depends on your perspective. As Conan said above, someone had to be first.
Also depends on your theology.
No "Wars of the Worlds" to worry about either.
Posted on 06/25/2002 10:30:16 AM PDT by RightWhale
Astronomers on Brink of Watershed in Planet Discoveries
By Robert Roy Britt Senior Science Writer
posted: 07:00 am ET 24 June 2002
WASHINGTON, D.C. - The first phase of a two-decade hunt for planets around other stars ended this month with announcements of the discovery of two planets in Jupiter-like orbits, proving that our solar system has cousins, at least of the distant variety.
Now it is census time. The world's top planet hunters are rushing headlong into Phase II, during which they expect the number of known extrasolar planets to rise dramatically from its present total of about 100. Several groups are fanning out in all manner of observational directions, with telescopes big and small, to root out, count and characterize other solar systems.
Based on interviews with top experts, the new era will probably last anywhere from four to six years, barring any major surprises. It may be the least glamorous of the three phases outlined by astronomers, but it is a necessary prelude to the holy grail of planet hunting: Phase III, the discovery of Earth-like planets.
This phase would begin if and when the first rocky planets are detected, places that would resemble Earth, places where liquid water exists on the surface and the temperature is conducive to life.
"That'll be the real breakthrough, when you find things that you'd actually like to own real estate on," said David Latham of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.
While Phase I and II are being conducted from the ground, Phase III must wait for a new generation of space-based telescopes to be built. Last week, Latham and other top planet hunters gathered at the Carnegie Institution here to assess the status and future of their burgeoning profession.
Phase II: The Watershed
For now, technology limits discoveries to large, gaseous planets. All have been found by a creative method that notes the wobble of a star caused by the gravitational tug of an orbiting planet.
A new approach, which involves watching a planet eclipse the light of a star, shows imminent promise.
Two research teams have already used this so-called transit method to find "potential planet candidates." The first were announced by the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment (OGLE) team in February. The European group found 42 candidates among the millions of stars they monitored.
On Thursday, Princeton University's Gabriela Mallen-Ornelas said her EXtra-solar PLanet Occultation Research (EXPLORE) project had identified three and possibly four candidates in a survey of 38,000 stars.
With both these projects, some of the objects will likely turn out to be companion stars, instead of gas giant planets. The astronomers say they are very close to telling the difference as they refine their methods and determine how to use other telescopes for follow-up observations.
Other researchers agree there is a good chance some of these candidates will indeed be planets.
"We are on the brink of the first discovery of a planet by the transit method," Latham said. "And then I think you'll find it's a watershed. They'll start to come fast and furious. You'll see dozens of them."
Latham expects the first announcement by year's end. He told SPACE.com he would be disappointed if it did not come within 12 months. He said several other groups have completed observations of various star fields, but unlike the OGLE and EXPLORE teams they're just beginning to analyze their data and do follow-up work.
Complimentary approaches
The transit method brings two important advantages to the search. While the wobble method typically involves surveys of 2,000 stars or less, the transit technique can survey tens of thousands or millions of stars at one time. Further, the wobble method works best for Sun-like stars, whereas transits can be spotted around other, hotter stars.
Using both approaches, astronomers expect to find enough gas giants in the near future to begin making judgements about just how common solar system formation is and how often it resembles what happened around our Sun.
The wobble scientists have several more possible Jupiters in their data already but are waiting for each of the objects to make a compete orbit before it is announced. The orbits can take 10-15 years -- roughly equal to how long the researchers have been collecting data on many of the stars.
"What will be very exciting in the next couple of years is for other Jupiter-like planets to turn up," said Caltech's David Charbonneau, who last year led a team that made the first detection of an atmosphere of a planet around another star. "Then we'll learn what the rate of occurrence is of those Jupiter analogues. Is it 50 percent? Is it 10 percent? Or is it very rare?"
Jupiter-like planets are considered important in part because they shield inner planets, like Earth, by absorbing comets and asteroids that might otherwise routinely hit and sterilize the smaller worlds.
Phase III: Other Earths
Almost no one expects a true Earth-like planet to be found until at least the end of the decade.
NASA's Kepler mission, slated to launch in 2007, will survey about 100,000 stars continuously for four years, looking for transiting planets. The mission could detect some rocky planets orbiting very close to their host stars in the early months, because the planets would orbit frequently.
Such a finding would signal the beginning of Phase III, proving that Earth-like planets, at least in some form, can develop around other stars.
But a potentially habitable planet in an Earth-like orbit would take roughly one year to complete a full trip around its star. If one is spotted, it would not be announced until it had been observed on multiple passes, said William Borucki, who leads the mission. Borucki told SPACE.com that if Kepler detects a possible Earth-like planet, his team will want to be sure about it, and so the data would not be released until late in the mission, probably 2010 or later.
Kepler is designed to create a census of terrestrial planets in one patch of sky.
If Earth-like planets are common, Borucki said Kepler could be expected to find up to 500 of them. He notes that we might then assume life could be prevalent throughout the galaxy. If Kepler finds few or none, scientists would infer we are more likely to be rather alone.
Earlier opportunities
A French mission to find terrestrial planets, called COROT , will launch in late 2005 and has a chance of stealing some of Kepler's thunder. COROT researchers, if they are fortunate, could announce the first extrasolar terrestrial planet in 2006, COROT scientist Claire Moutou said in an interview.
But for COROT to spot a terrestrial, the planet will have to orbit very close to its host star. COROT will not be able to spot Earth-sized planets in Earth-like orbits.
A Canadian project, being done on a shoestring budget of about $10 million, has a long-shot chance of finding a terrestrial planet much sooner, said Latham, the Harvard-Smithsonian researcher.
The Microvariability & Oscillations of STars (MOST), due to go up this October, will be the smallest space telescope ever launched -- about size of a pie plate.
"They aren't going to look at very many stars, but they're going to look at them with much better photometric precision and monitoring duration than is possible from the ground," Latham said. "And they might get lucky."
Luck, as any astronomer knows, is part of the game. But so is hard work and creativity -- something that the planet hunting community is getting a lot more of as the relatively new field gains steam.
"This field has exploded so dramatically and has attracted so many people, especially young people, that we have all kinds of new ideas," Latham said. "The richness of the new ideas means that all kinds of discoveries could happen [including things] that I'm not even thinking of today because I'm an old guy."
What a horrible, lonely, waste that would be.
Really, that just depends on your perspective. As Conan said above, someone had to be first.
Also depends on your theology.
No "Wars of the Worlds" to worry about either.
There's no basis for saying that, yet.
Is that what it is? The atheist who
hopes to find other life in the universe
as opposed to the Christian who prefers
that we be alone in the universe?
If that is the deal, atheism looks a lot
friendlier that its antithesis. Brrr.
Well, I did allow myself some wiggle room by saying "seems to indicate."
But what do we have right now, a few hundred observed solar systems? And only a few are remotely similar to ours, showing planets that are have fairly circular orbits.
I'm all for more research, but I'm comfortable saying that solar systems like ours aren't all that plentiful. Call it a hunch if you like, and if the evidence indicates otherwise, I'll have no problem saying so.
I'm praying we find a planet full of swollen-headed, ashen grey midgets with scolex-like mouths.
They'd be great for dwarf-bowling. : +{ )
And is this where your theology leads you?
It's about 100 right now, but they added 20 last week and this week is yet young.
try religion, and the state.
paradigm shift.
To quote Linus in the Peanuts comic strip "The theological implications are astounding - either way"...
I'm curious as to whose 'apple cart' you think would be upset by the discovery of life on other planets.
Probably the same "apple carts" that will be upset when people stop dying due to biologic immortality.
And what the heck is "prime health immortality"?
Biologic immortality (you omitted the key word "biologic") is living in the physical, flesh and blood body forever. Prime health is optimum health. A physically fit state of health analogous to a person in their mid twenties. Thus, living forever with optimum health -- physical fitness.
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