Attacks in Saudi Arabia resume

A British banker was killed yesterday in a suspected car bomb attack in the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyadh, signaling the return of attacks on foreigners that were perpetrated in 2000 and 2001.

The 35-year-old man died when his vehicle exploded in the street outside a residential compound at 9:45 a.m. Saudi time. The bomb is believed to have been planted on the vehicle, according to Saudi police sources cited by the BBC.

The bombing appears to be the latest in a string of attacks against American, British and Australian expatriates in Saudi Arabia reaching back to November 2000. But that streak basically ended in the middle of last year. The resurgence of these types of attacks is noteworthy, as is the question of what comes next.

Previous attacks were relatively sophisticated, mostly using plastic explosives and detonation devices not available to the average Saudi. This suggests that the attacks originated from a single source and were not a series of random, isolated incidents. Victims ranged in age, nationality and occupation, though all were from English-speaking countries.

The previous bombings spanned a six-month period. Since the Saudi internal security services have such a tight grip on the country, it is likely they occurred with the cooperation, or at least implicit consent, of some element inside the security services. The security elements may simply be anti-Western, or they may have regarded the attacks as pressure valves, releasing popular unrest in manageable doses.

The bombers have not made demands or political statements, but their purpose is fairly clear. Attacking Westerners is a way to erode the delicate middle ground inhabited by the Saudi government. Dead Westerners will either fray relations between the Saudi government and the United States and United Kingdom, or they will force the government closer to the West and away from many of the Saudi people.

The bombers' strategy of causing friction between the Saudis and the West is relatively simple to discern, and the American, British and Saudi governments have tried not to fall into the trap. The Saudis played to their domestic audience by immediately arresting seven Westerners for the crime. The United States and United Kingdom were extremely upset, but both countries downplayed the incidents as much as they could, even asking some of the victims families not to "rock the boat" according to the UK-based Guardian.

Meanwhile, the United States and United Kingdom worked quietly to get the Saudi government to suppress the bombers. The tactic seems to have worked, as the attacks stopped after May 2001.

In the post Sept. 11 atmosphere, there was more incentive for the bombers to start up again yet also greater incentive for the Saudi government to prevent them. On balance, the government did well, with only one incident – a pedestrian who exploded a bomb that killed one American at a shopping center in early October, as the United States was making military preparations against Afghanistan.

However, in light of today's bombing, and a shooting incident against an Australian earlier this month, the Saudi government's streak of suppression seems to be in danger. The uptick is likely due to one of two things: Either the Saudi government is relaxing its security posture – which is unlikely – or the bombers have adapted and reorganized.

This raises an issue for the bombers. Their old tactics didn't achieve the strategic outcome they were seeking so why continue to use them? The Saudi government did not break with the United States or the United Kingdom, nor did it alienate its people to an obvious degree. Of course the current context is different with U.S. public opinion raging against Riyadh and more grumbling in Saudi Arabia.

The question is whether to continue with attacks against individual Westerners – and hope to force a crisis before getting caught – or to try something different. Picking up the pace of attacks would be difficult, and there aren't many other vulnerable targets in Saudi Arabia. A more likely option is to increase the size and scope of the attacks.

I think we need a few cia operatives setting off a few bombs in Saudi Arabia and Syria and a few other places. I believe if we hit back in a few key spots it may teach these bastards that there is a price. Lets start with
maybe the Haj.

I am sorry the British man died. However, there are no tourists in a war, as the saying goes, and Euro and US nationals need to understand that *the Saudis are not our friends.*

Everyone knows the places in their own cities where you just do not go, and it goes double for countries like Saudi Arabia.

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