Posted on 06/19/2002 5:53:50 PM PDT by Axion
Israeli Plan To Seize PA Land Won't End Bloodshed Summary
19 June 2002
Israel announced June 19 that it will take and hold more Palestinian Authority-controlled territory in retaliation for suicide bombings. The threat is meant to deter further suicide bombings, but actually carrying it out will be a logistical nightmare for the Israeli military, and it will widen divisions within the Israeli government.
Analysis
In reaction to a June 18 suicide bombing in Jerusalem that killed 19 people, the Cabinet of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon approved a policy to begin seizing and holding Palestinian areas. What this means exactly is still unclear, but according to an Israeli government press release, "Israel will respond to every terror attack by capturing Palestinian Authority territory, which will be held for as long as the terror continues."
The decision was made before another suicide bombing in Jerusalem killed seven people June 19. The new policy is a massive shift in Israeli military strategy, and if fully implemented, will impact every aspect of Israeli-Palestinian relations.
Sharon's plan seems to be aimed at taking the fight to the Palestinians, in what would in effect be another offensive like the West Bank offensive from March 29 to May 10. The threat of Israeli seizures of Palestinian lands is also meant to deter future suicide attacks.
But if the government is serious about responding to every suicide bombing by taking and holding Palestinian territory, it could be setting the stage for a full-scale reoccupation and leave Israeli forces with no exit strategy. The plan may also aggravate divisions within Israel over how to respond to Palestinian suicide attacks. Finally, its implementation will be difficult -- if not impossible -- and will raise the level of bloodshed between the two sides rather than help end the fighting.
The scope of such an operation would be daunting. Even if Israel concentrates solely on the West Bank and leaves the Gaza Strip alone, its resources will be stretched to the limits if it tries to take and hold areas under Palestinian Authority control, known as Areas A and B. Under the 1993 Oslo accords, the PA has full or joint control of about 40 percent of the West Bank and 65 percent of the Gaza Strip. Area A would be the target for Israeli territory seizures since these regions are where the PA has full security and civilian control.
Together, the two territories total 6,220 square kilometers (2,400 square miles), almost twice the size of Puerto Rico, with a combined population of more than 3 million Palestinians, the vast majority of which live in the built-up urban areas. Urban fighting can be some of the bloodiest, as the battles in Jenin during the West Bank campaign clearly showed. Running battles, which lasted for days, as well as hidden explosives, left dozens of Israeli soldiers dead or wounded.
Seizing and holding territory in these areas is not necessarily beyond the capabilities of the 172,500-member Israel Defense Forces (IDF). But it would seriously strain an already weary military, which must be constantly ready for a war with its neighbors. It is also responsible for patrolling the Green Line that separates the occupied territories from Israel, as well as securing the Jewish state's 648 kilometers of borders with Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan. The IDF already had to mobilize an additional 20,000 reservists for its offensive in the West Bank, the largest single call-up in three decades.
During that operation, and in subsequent incursions, Israeli forces entered Palestinian-controlled areas only for short periods, during which they would conduct search-and-seizure operations or destroy infrastructure before withdrawing. The government's shift in policy will now require forces to remain in Area A as well as police these regions and assume civil responsibility. As a possible first step toward occupation, Israeli troops are currently trucking mobile homes into Jenin, the BBC reported June 19.
Stationing troops within Area A, however, is already triggering conflict in Israel. IDF Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz said June 19 that the IDF would not remain in the territories, Israeli daily Haaretz reported. Mofaz's statement seems a direct contradiction of Sharon's decision.
Even Defense Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer said June 19 he opposes retaking Area A, Haaretz reported. The conflict seems at least in part an issue over duration. For instance, Ben-Eliezer said that although he opposes retaking PA-controlled areas, IDF forces would still remain there for up to three weeks.
Opponents of the decision, like Knesset Labor member Haim Ramon, have called it a prelude to full-scale Israel reoccupation of the Palestinian territories, leading to an ultimate annexation. Supporters have argued that the government should regain absolute control over the areas, Haaretz reported.
The decision has caused political infighting, and the first preparations for the plan's implementation have not deterred further strikes, as evidenced by the second Jerusalem attack June 19.
Capturing PA territory, though not beyond Israel's military capabilities for short-term operations, is both a drastic and unsustainable plan for the long term. Before Oslo, Israel legally controlled all of the West Bank and Gaza. But the areas now under Palestinian control won't be easily reoccupied.
The Palestinian population has become more radicalized and militant and now has decades of experience of fighting Israeli soldiers. The result of Sharon's new plan could be tough and bloody battles throughout the West Bank and possibly even Gaza similar to those seen in Jenin in May.
Neither did not seizing the land. Net loss to the pallies.
/john
Granted.
But each time they set off another bomb, seize another town and its outlying areas. Order all residents to leave Israel forever.
Keep doing this until A) The bombs stop or B) There are NO Palestinians in Israel.
If condition B) is satisfied, build a massive, army-guarded fence. 30 feet of concrete topped with electrified chainlink and concertina wire. Sink it 20 feet into the ground with seismic sensors every 20 feet. Put cameras 50 feet apart, with monitoring substations every 1 mile. Troop barracks every five miles complete with fast-moving light-armored vehicles. Helicoptor patrols with thermal imaging.
/john
True. I concede that. So it still winds up being a net loss to the pallies when they blow themselves up and murder innocents.
Too bad IAF doesn't load a C-130 with a massive, wide band, high power RF source, and fly low and slow over the territories, thereby setting off every initiator that wasn't protected by a faraday shield.
/john
Personally, I would like to see Judaea and Samaria annexed, where any Arab remaining would then have to swear a loyalty oath to the Jewish state. If they won't, then they go too.
Yes, the EU, the American left, the Israeli left will howl and whine. But that would sure "End The Bloodshed" in STRATFOR's sense of defeatism.
Wimps.
And as you noted, when Israel surrounded/occupied the towns, there were very few if any terrorist bombings. That's because with a complete crackdown, there is little chance for the terrorists to get out of their home town undetected.
It is precisely because of these types of actions (the actions of the Palestinians) that Occupation is permitted according to the Geneva convention. In fact, the occupying army is required by the Geneva Convention to ensure that order is maintained in the occupied territories.
I have given our discussion much thought: build a giant wall, empty and annex villages, move the border etc. Here's what I think now.
A giant wall has the liability of permanence. On the other side will be Pali land forever, no matter what terrorist atrocities they continue to commit. Big mistake.
Emptying villages and deporting them to Jordan: requires Jordan to play along.
Better: declare this new policy, and after the next terror attack annex a strip of the PA along the Green Line, say 1K wide. Depopulate it. Push the inhabitants east, into the rest of the PA, and let Arafat feed and house them.
The 1k wide strip becomes what is better than a wall, a "free fire zone". Anyone in it is shot, bang dead. Better than a wall, because with each new terror attack in Israel, the 1k wide strip is shoved 1k further into the PA. (Which you cannot do with a billion dollar wall.) Again, shove out the inhabitants eastward and let Arafat feed them. This 1k wide moving strip of land is annexed to Israel, but kept empty as a military zone for security.
Eventually, all of the Palis will be in tiny strips hard against the Jordan River. They can stay in a few massive refugee camps, or move to Jordan, but they cannot return to Israel, not ever.
Like a wall.
Now there is the first really creative and workable thought I have heard on the middle-east situation in the past 8 years.
Please forward to the IDF - I think it might work!!
Ok, for an extra 5 points on your final grade, I'll give a movie quote, and you tell me what movie it's from:
"Come on, David! You think they don't know what you know? They have guys they pay to think of stuff like this.... < snip> If they want cable, they'll call you."
Please name the movie.
/john
Independence Day.
Give us a hard one next time.
If anything goes wrong -- your fault, my fault, nobody's fault -- I'm gonna blow your head off. No matter who gets killed, no matter who gets shot, I'm gonna blow your head off.Hint: The line was delivered by John Wayne.
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