Syria: Public Statements Reveal Inner Conflicts

STRATFOR ^ | 19 June 2002 | Staff

[Axion]

Syria: Public Statements Reveal Inner Conflicts
19 June 2002

Summary

Syrian President Bashar Assad is complaining publicly about U.S. pressure on his regime that has continued even after Damascus' cooperation against al Qaeda. Despite Syria's help, Washington likely is wary about opposition to its forming Middle East peace plan. For his part, Bashar likely made the statement as a warning that anti-terrorism cooperation may not last if the United States does not give.

Analysis

Syrian President Bashar Assad has gone public with complaints that, despite Syrian cooperation against al Qaeda, the United States still is putting diplomatic pressure on his regime. In an interview with Knight Ridder News Service, Assad specifically noted that Washington has not taken Syria's name off of its list of terrorist-sponsoring countries, while claiming that his government supplied intelligence that saved the lives of "many American soldiers."

Syria's record on terrorism is decidedly mixed, although it does appear to be working with the United States against al Qaeda. This is not surprising considering that Damascus has been combating Islamic fundamentalists -- who oppose the secular Assad regime -- longer than Washington has.

Sources cited by Knight Ridder say that the intelligence provided by Syria on al Qaeda includes information gathered from monitoring the Damascus telephone line of a relative of one of Osama bin Laden's wives and by interrogating Mohammed Haydar Zammar, a German citizen of Syrian origin who was a key player in al Qaeda's German operations.

But it appears that the cooperation between Damascus and Washington is limited to al Qaeda. Syria reportedly has facilitated arms shipments to Iraq by allowing Iraqis to unload the weapons in Syrian ports and travel by rail to the border. Syria also has done little to restrain the Lebanon-based Hezbollah group from staging attacks in Israeli territory, nor has it clamped down on the Islamic Jihad, which has its headquarters and logistical facilities in Syria but continues to operate in the West Bank.

This straddling is awkward but has been going on for months. It doesn't explain why Assad felt compelled to air his complaints about the United States in public now.

The best explanation lies, as it so often does, in the conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians. The Bush administration has been working on some sort of peace plan for weeks, not because it truly believes the proposal will solve the conflict, but because the administration hopes that drawn-out negotiations might decrease the severity of the violence in the region and allow the White House to focus on other issues, like Iraq.

One of the threats to Washington's peace plan is Syria, which opposes a cessation of violence in Israel and a U.S. military campaign against Iraq. Peace between the Israelis and Palestinians -- or at least the best facsimile of peace -- as well as a neutered Iraq would leave Syria standing as the biggest threat, and potential next target, of both Israel and Washington in the Middle East.

Damascus' desire and ability to interfere is why the U.S. government likely has been putting even more heat on the Syrian government than usual to support -- or at least not actively oppose -- its initiative. Evidence of this is indirect, but the cancellation of a recent meeting between Bush and Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Sharaa is one indication.

So Assad's response appears twofold. The first part is simple public relations. Leaking information about Syrian anti-terrorism cooperation to the press generates positive headlines and influences grassroots public opinion in the United States. But Assad knows he can't count on a groundswell of popular support from the American public. So bringing up Syria's cooperation may also be a veiled threat to end that cooperation should Washington push too hard.