Posted on 06/18/2002 9:53:40 AM PDT by NativeNewYorker
EVANS-NOVAK POLITICAL REPORT: June 18, 2002
2002-06-18 12:43 (New York)
==============================================================================
June 18, 2002
Washington, D.C.
Vol. 36, No. 13
To: Our Subscribers
Unhappiness with Ashcroft points to internal trouble in the Bush
Administration as the President announces a first strike against
Iraq.
U.S. makes move to win good graces of Russia, but may be losing
its free-trade credentials.
Daschle scores another win in the Senate, but Yucca battle
looms.
In this issue: primaries and runoffs in Alabama, South Carolina
and Utah next week.
BUSH ADMINISTRATION
Outlook: While President George W. Bush's approval rating
remains high, a sense of unease pervades his administration --
particularly when it comes to the performance of some key Cabinet
members.
1) The White House did not hide concern over Atty. Gen. John
Ashcroft's “dirty bomb” announcement from Moscow that had the effect
of spooking markets and frightening other Americans. Ashcroft is
accused of grandstanding -- a major sin in the Bush Administration.
2) Tom Ridge has been a disappointing Homeland Security director
and certainly is not first in line for the Cabinet-level post. He
could stay as a senior presidential aide or become Secretary of
Transportation.
3) The vacancy at Transportation could be created by the
possibility that Norman Mineta, the Cabinet's only Democrat, will be
its first resignation. He has been in poor health and clearly has not
been up to the challenges of 9/11.
4) White House Chief-of-Staff Andrew Card is possible for the
new Cabinet post, but his stock has fallen as a result of his
indiscreet comments in an Esquire magazine article about senior
adviser Karl Rove -- and about Bush himself.
5) Beyond personnel difficulties, the economy worries Bush
Administration officials more than they admit publicly. The recovery,
as we have reported, is passive. The prolonged stock market torpor is
disturbing.
6) The conviction of Arthur Andersen, a delight for the young
lawyers at the Justice Department, is seen in the White House and by
Republicans as going after the wrong target. The attack on a
corporation instead of individuals is widely viewed as a policy
error.
First-Strike: The surprisingly candid revelations that President
Bush has signed papers calling for the overthrow of Saddam Hussein,
coupled with his call for a first-strike against terrorist nations,
signals to the world that the attack on Iraq is set, with the time
still undetermined.
1) The dissent from this view is limited and certainly is not
coming from the Democratic leadership. Senate Majority Leader Tom
Daschle (D-S.D.) has signed on, and that is significant.
2) The anti-Iraq attack is tied to bipartisan, largely
uncritical support of Israel. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon told a
closed meeting of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last week
that removal of Saddam Hussein is the best way to solve the
Palestinian question. He was not contradicted.
3) Secretary of State Colin Powell and the uniformed military
are skeptical about the Iraq attack, but their voices are necessarily
muted if the Commander-in-Chief seems to have made his decision.
U.S.-Russia: Last week, the U.S. followed Europe by recognizing
Russia as a market economy, a key step towards Russia's accession
into the WTO.
1) Like Europe's decision, the Bush Administration's recognition
of Russia followed promises by President Vladimir Putin that the
state would dismantle the high subsidies for its energy industry.
Still, in some ways, Russia is moving away from a free market,
and motivation behind Bush's decision can be found in political and
diplomatic considerations as much as in an assessment of Russia's
situation. The EU and the U.S. are engaged in a battle for the good
graces of Russia. Also, Russia has bought some favor with the U.S. by
its expressed support of the war on terrorism.
2) The recognition means that the U.S. and the EU will treat
Russia as it treats other allies in trade disputes. Specifically, in
determining punitive tariffs, nations will regard prices in Russia as
true market prices from which to calculate tariff rates.
3) Critics point out, though, that in some industries Russia is
making moves towards increased state control of some industries. In
particular, Russia has taken steps to nationalize the country's
largest vodka maker and monopolize the vodka industry there.
4) The Bush Administration hopes that the gesture will push
Russia to stop providing Iran with materials that can be used as
weapons. Also, if the recognition does work to liberalize the energy
industry in Russia, that will decrease the influence of OPEC over the
oil supply coming into the U.S.
5) Russia will have more difficulty obtaining market-economy
recognition by other WTO members who see themselves with less to gain
from the gesture than do the U.S. and EU.
Global Warming: President Bush has continued his missteps on the
environment, once again giving ammunition to his opponents on the
left while upsetting his supporters on the right. Because of the
incoherence of Bush's message, it is nearly impossible to predict, in
the short term, what policies and regulations the Administration will
put forth.
1) Bush blamed it on the “bureaucracy” when his Environmental
Protection Agency submitted to a UN panel a document that depends on
a report drafted during the Clinton/Gore Administration regarding the
human impact on global climate. Specifically, Administration watchers
blame Phil Cooney, the chief of staff at the Council on Environmental
Quality, an Executive Office agency outside of the EPA.
2) The change in direction hurts Bush in many ways. It allows
Bush opponents to further the perception of the President as bungling
and uninformed on the environment. It also exacerbates problems with
business interests and conservatives who want him officially to
withdraw the document and remove the U.S. signature from the Kyoto
global warming treaty.
3) This points to what some say is a systemic problem in the
Bush White House: too many career bureaucrats and appointees who are
not true conservative believers, and perhaps not even loyal to Bush.
MONEY REPORT
Steel Tariffs: The Bush Administration is coming across new
problems stemming from the 30 percent tariffs it imposed on imported
steel in March.
1) Administration officials say they are surprised by the price
spikes in steel and manufacturing. They assert these prices are more
due to exaggeration and over-reaction than actual market conditions.
Steel prices were rising in the first quarter of 2001, before the
tariffs were imposed. In January through March of this year, hot-
rolled steel prices climbed 10 percent -- about $20 per ton.
2) After the announcement of the tariffs, buyers flocked to pick
up steel before the levies went into effect, and prices approached
$275 a ton. The decrease in supply caused by the tariffs has brought
a ton of steel up to $300, compared to $210 at the end of last year.
Administration officials had said in March that they expected
increases smaller than have actually appeared.
3) Meanwhile, WTO agreed yesterday to rule on Europe's proposed
$888 million in retaliatory tariffs against U.S. The WTO panel will
also examine weather Asian countries have grounds for retaliation.
Underlying the European dispute are the political ambitions of EU
Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy who wants to be a leader of the left
in France.
4) President Bush could defuse some European resentment on steel
by granting generous exemptions to certain exporters into the U.S.
Steel interests and manufacturers are lobbying heavily in Washington
on opposite sides of the debate over exemptions. Over 600 exemptions
have been requested already. Still, the steel interests-primarily the
labor unions-have more political influence with Bush than do the
opposing industries.
CONGRESS
Supplemental Appropriations: President Bush's threats against a
pork-laden bill are running into complications.
1) The House Republican leaders have insisted on passing the
debt-limit as part of the Supplemental rather than as a free-standing
bill, in order to save Republican members the embarrassment.
2) Senate Democrats have seized the opportunity and suggested
that they will drop their insistence on a separate debt-limit
extension if the Supplemental includes spending caps that are much
higher than the President wants.
3) That suggests the possibility that Bush may be forced to sign
a Supplemental that he definitely does not want, in order to get the
debt limit extension -- and keep the Social Security checks rolling.
Senate: Majority Leader Daschle is on a winning streak.
1) Most recently he caught Republicans off guard by bringing up
the bill for permanent repeal of the estate tax last Wednesday. He
had announced the bill would hit the floor before the July 4 recess,
and so anti-tax groups had planned for then a grass-roots campaign
targeting vulnerable Democratic Senators such as Tim Johnson (S.D.)
and Jean Carnahan (Mo.). The vote came before they could launch their
efforts.
2) The bill got 54 votes, six short of the 60 needed to waive
the budget rules and pass the tax cut. The three most vulnerable
Senate Democrats -- Johnson, Carnahan and Sen. Paul Wellstone (Minn.)
-- all voted no.
3) Liberal Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.) joined most Democrats in
voting no, as did Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).
4) Daschle now is trying to avoid leaving Democratic
fingerprints on the vote to override Nevada's veto of the President's
decision to create a permanent nuclear-waste storage facility at
Yucca Mountain. The override will pass, but Democrats don't want to
look like the culprits. In Nevada's new House district, Democrat
Dario Herrera has a very slight edge over Republican Jon Porter, and
has successfully used Bush's Yucca stance against the GOP.
5) Law requires the Senate to vote on it, but does not dictate
who must bring up the vote. Republicans contend that it should be the
chairman of the Energy Committee, Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D).
House: Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) upset his party when he
more or less announced that the House would have to come back for a
lame duck session to complete the year's work. Amid consideration of
a prescription drug benefit and the work required to create the
Department of Homeland Security, almost nobody is confident the House
can complete the appropriations process before the target adjournment
date of October 4. But Republicans wish that Hastert had kept the
pressure on rather than granting an extension this early.
ELECTION 2002
Texas Report: Republicans have edges in the two major statewide
races, but everything is still liquid there.
1) Gov. Rick Perry (R) has consistently held a healthy lead over
wealthy businessman Tony Sanchez (D). Perry surged ahead after early
missteps by Sanchez. Sanchez took out massive early television buys,
and they were ineffective and too much, too early. He has slowed down
the pace of the TV ads, and his latest spots have been more
effective. Also, after Sanchez attacked a Perry appointee for hiding
some assets, it came out that Sanchez had failed to report $295,000
in Conoco stock.
2) One recent poll showed Perry leading by 20 points, but
Sanchez's campaign has contended that he trails by only 4 points. One
poll, conducted by the Texas Medical Association (which has endorsed
Sanchez) shows an eight-point Perry lead. The TMA poll expects a 33
percent Hispanic turnout, and so it probably overstates Sanchez's
support among likely voters.
A realistic Perry lead is probably in the low double digits, not
insurmountable for a candidate as well heeled as Sanchez.
3) Atty. Gen. John Cornyn's (R) race to succeed Sen. Phil Gramm
(R) is close enough to make national Republican leaders
uncomfortable. The poll late last week showed Cornyn leading former
Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk (D) 35 percent to 30 percent, with 33 percent
of voters still undecided.
4) Kirk, if he won, would be the only African American in the
U.S. Senate, and national Democrats are uniting behind him.
Presidential hopefuls Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Tom Daschle (D-
S.D.) and John Edwards (D-N.C.) are hosting a $1,000/head fundraiser
for Kirk next Tuesday night. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y) will also
be appearing for him.
5) Cornyn's campaign hopes that Kirk's ties to liberal party
leaders will hurt him with Texans. They also emphasize that the
Dallas-Fort Worth chapter of the Center for American-Islamic
Relations counts Kirk as a friend.
6) Cornyn, meanwhile, is trying capitalize on two things very
popular in Texas: President Bush and tort reform. Cornyn pledges to
be Bush's go-to guy on the issue, which has some cache in a state
where trial lawyers are ubiquitous and have a bad reputation.
7) The redistricting plan leaves basically none of the state's
32 congressional seats in contention and Republicans will shrink the
Democrats' edge in the delegation from 17 to 13 down to 17 to 15.
New York Report: The Congressional redistricting plan requested
by Vice President Dick Cheney and House Speaker Hastert leaves out in
the cold Rep. Ben Gilman (R) and Democrat Rep. Louise Slaughter.
1) Slaughter may challenge Rep. John LaFalce (D) in a primary,
or move and run against Rep. Tom Reynolds (R). Either way, she
doesn't appear to have much of a chance.
2) For 15-term Rep. Gilman, though, the options are more open.
He has at least entertained bolting the Republican Party and running
as a Democrat against Rep. Sue Kelly (R). However, he may have ruled
this out when Democrats told him that he would not be in line for the
chairmanship of the International Relations Committee if he won and
Democrats regained the majority. Gilman ran the committee for six
years before GOP term-limits made him hand over the gavel. Rep. Tom
Lantos (D-Calif.), in his 11th term, is the top Democrat on the
committee.
3) Gilman has hired Republican consultant Arthur Finklestein to
test the waters in Kelly's district, as well as in the districts of
Reps. Nita Lowey (D) and Eliot Engel (D). Gilman may also consider a
run against Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D).
4) The most likely outcome in New York is that Gilman and
Slaughter both lose, and the other 29 incumbents win re-election,
leaving Democrats with an 18-to-11 majority in the state delegation.
5) The re-election of Gov. George Pataki (R) to a third term
long has been considered a virtual certainty, but a few caveats have
emerged.
6) The wild card is the independent candidacy of billionaire
Thomas Golisano. He claims he will spend $75 million of his own money
-- five times what he spent in his last run for governor four years
ago. Considering what happened in last year's New York City mayoral
election, Golisano could at least cripple Pataki.
7) Pataki has drifted considerably to the left over the last
eight years, and some disaffected conservatives could be attracted by
Golisano. While Golisano is even less of a legitimate conservative
than Pataki, he is using the same “too liberal for too long” label on
Pataki that Pataki used on in Mario Cuomo in 1994.
8) State Comptroller Carl McCall (D) and former HUD Secretary
Andrew Cuomo (D) are in a bitter battle for the Democratic
nomination. While Cuomo has made many mistakes and has proved an
unattractive candidate, he is still the favorite in the September
primary -- mainly because McCall is an African-American. Cuomo is an
underdog against Pataki, but would benefit if Golisano takes votes
from Pataki.
JUNE 25 PRIMARIES
Next Tuesday Alabama and South Carolina will each hold runoffs
in a couple of primaries. Also, after the state GOP convention
narrowed down the field in two congressional races in Utah, voters
there will nominate their candidates for an open seat and a
vulnerable Democratic seat. However, the U.S. Supreme Court may rule
Thursday that the census count in North Carolina was inaccurate, in
which case, Utah would win a fourth seat, mixing up the picture.
Alabama-1: In the battle of two former Capitol Hill Chiefs of
Staff, the advantage lies with the one who has been in the district
for the last five years. Jo Bonner (R) has been the top aide to
retiring Rep. Sonny Callahan (R), but moved back to his district
office in Mobile in 1997. Tom Young (R) ran the office of Sen.
Richard Shelby (R), but worked out of Washington, D.C.
In the primary, Bonner got 40 percent of the vote to Young's 20
percent. Both candidates have been raising serious cash, but the
climb is uphill for Young. Third-place finisher David Whetstone (R)
has gotten behind Bonner, which may not help him much, but it is
indicative of the leanings in Whetstone's home base-suburban Baldwin
County.
While it is not impossible for someone in Young's position
(having lost 2 to 1 in the first round) to come back and win the
nomination, Young would need some sort of anti-Bonner backlash.
Bonner has very low negatives, and so should coast to victory next
week, and easily win in November to succeed his old boss. Likely
Bonner.
Alabama-7: More than one Alabama political insider has likened
Artur Davis's (D) primary challenge of Rep. Earl Hilliard (D) to a
bar fight. Davis, a former Assistant U.S. Attorney, got in a good
first punch, catching Hilliard off guard by earning 43 percent in the
primary and forcing a runoff by holding the incumbent to 46 percent.
But Hilliard won't be surprised again, and will fare better in
the general election. Hilliard has gone on the offensive, running ads
attacking Davis for taking money from what his supporters
characterize as “New York Jewish Republicans.” The cavalry has also
arrived for the five-term incumbent, with national Democratic money
pouring in to save him.
Davis did a good job of giving voters in the majority-black 7th
district a reason to fire Hilliard -- pointing to his campaign-
finance irregularities among other problems. Hilliard also hurt
himself by launching a factually-incorrect personal attack on Davis.
Davis has strong support in the district's urban areas that
include Birmingham Montgomery and Selma, while Hilliard is solid in
the rural regions. Both have money coming in from Washington,
including Republican groups.
Turnout will be the key, and with the Democratic establishment
motivated behind him, Hilliard won't get sucker-punched again.
Leaning Hilliard.
South Carolina Governor: When he first won election to the U.S.
House in 1994, Mark Sanford (R) surprised everyone. In a crowded
field he worked his way into a runoff with former state party
chairman Van Hipp (R) and then surpassed him in the end.
This time, Sanford goes into the runoff as the leader, after
winning 39 percent, edging out the favored Lt. Gov. Bob Peeler (R)
who had 37 percent. Sanford did better than expected upstate and was
very strong in his own district. Now he has won the endorsement of
Atty. Gen. Charlie Condon, who finished third last week with 16
percent. Sanford is running radio ads touting that support.
Peeler, after the primary, immediately went on the attack,
picking on Sanford's votes against increased military spending.
Peeler is a southern-style conservative who wants to repeal the
state's property taxes, while Sanford is a more of a libertarian and
has a plan for phasing out the state's income tax.
To Peeler's advantage, the race is being cast in part as a Bush-
McCain rematch, with McCain getting behind Sanford, and Bush's people
backing the LG. But in polls throughout the race, Peeler has failed
to exceed 37%, while Sanford's stock is clearly on the rise.
Because all runoffs depend on turnout, Peeler will be helped by
his strong grass-roots support, and a handful of local runoffs
upstate. But Sanford's statewide ID and positives are high now, and
Peeler's uncharacteristic reversion to negativism will hurt him.
The winner will take on Gov. Jim Hodges (D). Leaning Sanford.
South Carolina-3: After a recount last night, State Rep. Jim
Klauber's (R) lead held up in the race for second place and the right
to battle State Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) in a runoff next Tuesday.
Klauber pulled in 22 percent and edged out Circuit Court Solicitor
George Ducworth (R) by 26 votes.
Barrett pulled in 44 percent in the primary, and the odds are
against Klauber making up that gap. It is difficult to get district-
wide television exposure in the 3rd, and Barrett has very few
negatives on which Klauber could play.
Rep. Lindsey Graham (R) is vacating this seat in his effort to
succeed retiring Sen. Strom Thurmond (R). Although the seat had been
Democratic before Graham won in 1994, Tuesday's winner will be
favored over Democratic nominee George Brightharp who lost to Graham
in 2000. Likely Barrett.
Utah-1: At first glance, the two Republicans seeking to succeed
Rep. James Hansen (R) have similar profiles: Rob Bishop (R) was the
House Speaker and Kevin Garn (R) is the House Majority Leader. Also,
both candidates are conservatives.
But Bishop's strength is the backing of the party operatives --
he was chairman of the state GOP. Garn's strength is his money. He
says he's worth more than $40 million, and has pumped $600,000 of his
own wealth into his campaign.
The cash gives Garn higher name ID, which in this race may be
the difference. Also, with his prominent role in the state House,
Garn keeps Bishop from holding a monopoly on the support of the
party's foot soldiers. Leaning Garn.
Utah-2: Tim Bridgewater (R) and John Swallow (R) were the two
candidates to survive the GOP convention in the Congressional
district now held by Rep. Jim Matheson (D). If the Supreme Court
Thursday announces that Utah is entitled to a fourth district, both
men will run in that open fourth, giving Matheson an easy ride to re-
election.
Without that ruling, or if the current districts stand for only
2002, the general election will be a competitive race. Bridgewater,
like Garn in the 1st, has much of his own money with which to run,
but Swallow, a state representative, has run a better campaign by
many accounts.
Bridgewater bears some stigma as a carpetbagger, and also has no
legislative experience. With higher profile stories in Utah right
now, the party faithful will form a larger portion of the primary
electorate than otherwise. This is to Swallow's advantage. Leaning
Swallow.
Vintage 1940's... It was a bargain!
What polling have they seen on this? An April Nevada Republican Party poll showed Porter up 11. Giuliani stopped by to endorse Porter in mid-May. At the end of March, Porter had more cash on hand. At mid-April, the number of active Republican voters in Nevada exceeded Democrats by 7,290. Patrick Kennedy recently raised $20K for Herrera and Rudy raised $30K for Porter.
She's not available.
I have it on good authority from a friend of her husband, an attorney in Irving, Texas, that it has come down to Washington, or him.
She chose him, and she will NOT go back to Washington under any circumstances.
That doesn't mean she's not on the phone ten hours per day.
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