New maps energize NC GOP (Republicans sense big chance to control both House, Senate )

This week they will be three of the most powerful men in North Carolina as they help craft a state budget directing how billions should be spent. But in six months, the three Democratic leaders -- state Sens. Aaron Plyler, a Monroe contractor, Fountain Odom, a Charlotte lawyer, and Howard Lee, a Chapel Hill businessman --could be out of a job.

The three Democrats are not alone. The new redistricting maps drawn by a Superior Court judge have cast doubt on whether Democrats can retain control of the General Assembly in November. And the maps give Republicans a historic opportunity.

Invigorated by their new prospects, Republican lawmakers are busily recruiting candidates to run for new districts and asking national GOP leaders for financial help from Washington.

"I don't think there is any doubt that Republicans will pick up seats in the Senate," said state Republican Leader Patrick Ballantine, a Wilmington attorney. "It is not healthy for one political party to be in charge of [the Senate] for 134 years. One hundred and thirty-four years of uninterrupted power is being challenged now for the first time."

A comparison of the political leanings of the new districts -- how residents voted in the 2000 elections -- shows that in the 50-member Senate, the number of seats in Democratic-leaning districts could drop from 35 to between 28 and 22 seats, according to an analysis by The News & Observer. In the 120-member House, the number of seats in Democratic-leaning districts could drop from 60 to 57.

The analysis, which yielded findings similar to those by various other groups, shows not only that Republicans are in a position to win back control of the state House, but that they stand a good chance of gaining control of the state Senate for the first time since horse-and-buggy days.

Such a historic power shift could affect policy on all levels of state government.

Shaken Democrats vowed to mount a campaign to retain control of the General Assembly, taking advantage of their larger stable of seasoned incumbents and their larger war campaign chests.

"We will keep control of the Senate," said Senate leader Marc Basnight, a Manteo contractor. But even Basnight foresees a diminished Democratic majority in the Senate, shrinking from 35 seats to 28 to 30 seats.

Democrats currently hold a 62-58 majority in the House and a 35-15 margin in the Senate.

When the General Assembly passed a redistricting plan last year -- something it is required to do after every census -- it created House and Senate districts designed to keep the legislature under Democratic control when the voters go to the polls in November. The Democrats won the power to control the redistricting process in the 2000 elections.

But the state Supreme Court, which is controlled by a 5-2 Republican majority, ruled that the legislature's plan violated a state constitutional provision prohibiting the splitting of counties. The ruling empowered Superior Court Judge Knox V. Jenkins Jr. to oversee revised maps and draw his own, if he judged it necessary.

Jenkins, a member of Republican Sen. Jesse Helms' political organization before he went on the bench, set aside a second set of maps produced by legislators and drew his own, using districts that in many cases resemble those drawn by Republicans.

A legal battle continues over the maps in both a federal court and the U.S. Justice Department. Meanwhile, North Carolina's elections remain on hold.

Although past voting trends provide important clues to the political leanings of a district, elections turn on many factors, from the popularity of the party's top candidates to the mood of voters.

To determine the political leanings of the new districts, The N&O examined how people in those districts voted in three statewide races in 2000 -- the races for chief justice of the N.C. Supreme Court, state auditor and governor.

In each House district and Senate district, the votes in those races were added to see whether the district leaned Democratic or Republican. If the voting by both parties fell between 52 percent and 48 percent, the district was rated a tossup.

Under Jenkins' plan, 24 Senate districts voted for Republicans in 2000, 22 districts backed Democrats, and four could go either way. In comparison, the Democratic Senate plan created 28 Democratic-leaning districts, 17 Republican leaning districts; and five seats that could go either way.

Jenkins' Senate plan puts eight Democrats --Plyler, Odom, Scott Thomas of New Bern, Allen Wellons of Smithfield, Oscar Harris of Benson, Cal Cunningham of Lexington, Charles Carter of Asheville and David Hoyle of Gastonia -- into Republican-leaning districts.

Under Jenkins' House plan, 57 House districts voted for Democrats in 2000, 50 backed Republicans, and 13 could go either way. The Democrats' plan created Democratic-leaning districts for 60 House seats, Republican-leaning districts for 47, and 13 seats that could go either way.

"It means a lot of close races," said Ryan Thornburg, editor of the Carolina Political Report, which published an analysis of districts this month. Control of the legislature next year, he said, "really is going to depend on what happens in a district by district basis."

The Republicans are in the midst of a frantic recruiting campaign to field candidates for newly competitive seats.

In Wake County, the GOP has been recruiting former Raleigh Mayor Paul Coble to run against Democratic state Sen. Eric Reeves, and Richard Stevens, a former Wake County manager, to run for an open Senate seat.

Nowhere is the impact of the Jenkins decision more dramatic than in the Senate Appropriations Committee.

Plyler, a 75-year old Monroe contractor, has served 20 years in the Senate. When he was first elected to the state House in in 1974, Union County was rural. But since then, Union County has become a bedroom community for Charlotte --and increasingly Republican.

To protect Plyler, the Democrats created a two-senator district of four counties that sliced across southern North Carolina all the way to Laurinburg.

The court-ordered district puts Plyler in a more compact single-member district that includes all of Union County and parts of Mecklenburg. As a result, his district would change from a Democrat-leaning district that ordinarily votes 55 percent for Democrats to a strong Republican district that ordinarily casts 65 percent of its vote for Republicans.

Among those who plan to run against Plyler are state Rep. Fern Shubert, a 54-year-old CPA from Marshville who has served three terms in the state House. "I think its very close to being a lock that it will go Republican," Shubert said.

Plyler, however, said he thinks he can hang on. "I think I have enough Republicans and Independents who know what I've done over the years," he said.

Odom, a seven-term senator who is married to Health and Human Services Secretary Carmen Hooker Odom, found his Charlotte district shifted from one that voted 55 percent Democrat to one that voted 60 percent Republican in the last election.

Lee, who served for 12 years in the Senate, remains in a Democratic district, but he was thrown into the same one as state Sen. Ellie Kinnaird of Carrboro. Winning a Democratic primary against his friend and colleague would be his first hurdle toward re-election.

It has not escaped the notice of Senate leaders that the political careers of the three budget chairmen are endangered. "I would say that's not a coincidence," Odom said. "It's a pure political process."

In Wake County, Republicans are in a stronger position because of Jenkins' plan. The Democrats' original map would have boosted Democrats' chances of winning three seats held by Wake County Republicans Russell Capps, Art Pope and Sam Ellis.

On Jenkins' map, Democrats' advantages in Wake have evaporated. Republican registration rises in seven of the eight districts with incumbents.

Jenkins' map also packs more of Raleigh's African-American community into two House districts, thereby making surrounding districts more Republican-leaning.

The map threw a wrench into the plans of Democrat M. Jackson "Jack" Nichols, a Raleigh lawyer and former county commissioner who had announced his intention to run for Pope's seat.

On Jenkins' map, Nichols is drawn out of Pope's district. Now, Nichols' home is at the tip of incumbent Democrat Jennifer Weiss' district, which runs from Cary into Raleigh. "It's a very long appendage that was added to my district," said Weiss, a Cary lawyer.

Weiss said she will run again, even though the plan takes away five precincts where voters know her and gives her about a dozen precincts where they don't.

The northwest Raleigh district of Pope, who is retiring, was regarded as one of the most Democratic-leaning districts in the state held by the GOP. But the judge's plan makes the district friendlier for Republicans, dropping Democratic voter registration by 10 percent.

The changes will make the district more hospitable for Republican Albert Nunn, a former airline captain who announced last week that he would run for the House from Pope's district and sink $100,000 of his own money into the race.

A number of Democratic House members are on the endangered list, including Ronnie Smith of Newport, Dan Barefoot of Lincolnton, and Alice Underhill of New Bern. House Democrats Nurham Warwick of Clinton and Edd Nye of Elizabethtown are in the same district, so only one can return.

In some districts, candidates who had been almost assured of re-election now face a tough decision: whether to run in a district where victory is uncertain.

Two Democratic House members from Guilford County -- Mary Jarrell of High Point and Flossie Boyd-McIntyre of Jamestown -- had been on solid ground in legislative maps but are now on less friendly turf.

Jenkins' map gives Republicans in Guilford County the chance to win the majority in the six-member House delegation.

"Voters will hear about issues," Ballantine said. "Incumbents will have to justify their voting records -- many for the first time. Challengers will be of a higher quality because of the fairness of the district."

Those living outside of North Carolina may be hard pressed to understand the likely historical significance of Judge Jenkin's new maps. They are easily the political equivalent of a major earthquake in a first world urban zone -- the carnage and chaos will be devastating, while permitting survivors to build a better and more everlasting society.

Marc Basnight, simply put, is a demon from hell that has sold out much of the state to ensure his continued Dare County power base. In a state that prides itself on higher learning, this "self-made" man brags about his lack of a college education while swilling liquor and chasing skirts. This year Mr Basnight and his flunkies went too far.

One of the great winners/losers on the GOP side stands to be Senator Ballantine. The youthful Senate Minority Leader, with his eyes on a statewide run in 2004, with quite a gamble in protecting his Democrat friend state Senator John Kerr. Pairing GOP House members Billy Creech and Carolyn Russell in the same House District forces Ms Russell to challenge Kerr or sit out this year.

Despite constant calls from the Wayne County faithful, Ms Russell is unable to pull the trigger thus far and announce her candidacy to challenge Kerr in the Wayne, Lenoir, and Greene County district.

Wayne County Republicans furious with Ballantine for strengthening Kerr's district with additional minority voters and swearing revenge.

Ballantine must rapidly mend fences and his struggling image, especially after syndicated columnist O'Connor's blistering attack two weeks ago.

Meanwhile "down east" GOP House candidates Beales, Deatherage, Wobbleton, Speciale, and West should be good for at least two wins if not three. The GOP state Senate leadership still behind the curve in the east as several initiatives have sputtered in the last two weeks.

The Republicans will regain the House 64-56. However Basnight pulling out all the stops to check Ballantine. It is unlikely the GOP will regain the Senate without the Wilmington youngster taking a few gambles. Can he/will he do this for the party while still thinking about his own 2004 run?

Meanwhile, inside the beltway Dems exuberant over a brace of smoking guns from Ms Dole's past. The first a searing examination of "financial mismanagement" during one of her often self-described Washington, DC tenures of success.

The second a shocking series of innuendo and "glimpse of truth" documentation from Ms Dole's pre-Nixon White House days. These set a new standard of dirty campaigning, even for the Democrats in a North Carolina senate race.

Mr Bowles, gaining slowly but surely in the polls, would be wise to distance himself from these lurid accounts. Ms Dole far too smart not to have those bases covered long ago.

A very interesting post, and mostly accurate. Your estimate of Patrick Ballantine may be as cynical as O'Connor's. Paul's been in Raleigh long enough for healthy cynicism to deteriorate into contempt.

Ballantine was as much, or more, of a driving force behind the lawsuit as any of the Plaintiffs in Stephenson.

He was the very first to predict an Earthquake on Jones street, bcak when the lawsuit was filed.

(Just ask Stephenson: ralphrose@gotricounty.com)

BTW: How can you "regain" a Senate the GOP has never controlled? The Whigs lost it to the D's in 1868.

If I were you I'd probably think the same way, but there simply was no effort to protect Kerr. The Lenoir, Greene, eastern Wayne district came about in a sincere effort to split fewer counties. The Plaintiffs, in all honesty, did all that was possible to adhere strickly to the criteria laid down by Stephenson. Incumbency was not a factor, believe it or not. Of all the GOP Senate incumbents, Ballantine ended up with the most challenging district. If you knew more about how this whole process unfolded you would see how much high stakes gambling has already been done by the "Wilmington youngster."

You can be sure the D's will come after him with everything they have. If they should lose the Senate, they want some pliable old permanent back-bencher to control the Pro Tem's office so they can roll them over and get back the chamber in '04. Underestimating Ballantine is precisely what the D's want Raleigh high-rollers to do. You can be sure the most pragmatic of them don't.

And it's not surprising that Russell would hesitate to pull the trigger. Her House district is slightly more "favorable" to her than the Interim Senate, although that's not saying much.

Deatherage? Gracious, man. Sure he has a "chance," but he's going to have to do more than surf the Internet, waiting for the call. He's actually going to have to show up if he hopes to win Interim House 6. And that's testimony to the underlying honesty of the Plaintiff's argument since Stephenson: That a lot of GOP challengers and INCUMBENTS are going to have to run, rather than simply STAND, for office.

Fair enough. The end of so-called 'Reconstruction' ended earlier in NC than many other Confederate states. (Andrew Johnson was from Tennessee, but born within earshot of the NC Capitol. The "Whigs" were a euphemism for those Unionists (loyalists) who were unorganized Lincoln-Johnson Republicans, mostly from the West, supported by the occupying military Union governors.

The point is the Republicans, as such, have never controlled the North Carolina Senate.

And, the D's, in all their manifestations, have controlled that Chamber for 134 years.

The most effective structural reform of state government in NC since that time occurred when the celebrated Gov. Aycock successfully made segregation of public schools a central D's "reform" in the early part of the last century.

You may be correct about Ballantine and his risk-taking involvement in the lawsuit. My point is that if he is going to upgrade his political career to that of being a serious statewide candidate he must become even more aggressive. While well liked in Wilmington, he has a miniscule base of support in the remainder of the state.

With this in mind, it is foolish for Ballantine to allow himself to be utilized as an additional poker chip for the conservative and moderate wings of the party east of I-95 that are still fighting the Bill Cobey/Sam Currin battles of the past. Charlotte thug Vinroot's drafting a third candidate for the 2000 GOP Governor's primary the baseline scenario that Ballantine must avoid being drawn into. If he does not begin to engineer new coalitions within the party he will fall into the same trap that the current House Minority Leader suffered then.

Thus the whispers in his ear to "go softly" must be taken with the proverbial grain of salt. Ballantine will either get aggressive and take increased gambles during the remainder of this year, or his 2004 dreams will wither like the fourth place finisher in the Iowa caucuses. That is to say, quickly forgotten once outmaneuvered.

Ballantine at this time a longshot and the Kerr perception -- right or wrong -- stands to hurt him. He needs his organization spinning a scenario that paints him as a unifying force within the party capable of leading in tough times. To do this he must shed most of his current associations with the Old Guard and create a new vision and vector post-Jenkins.

Cobey, Peaslee, Pope et al have done all they can/want to for Ballantine to this point. They are good for money in the next race, but unlikely to offer complementary strategic associations that will translate into an aggressive risk taking package that can maneuver through the primary field and then trump the Dem incumbent in 2004.

That is what I mean by the Wilmington youngster needing to be a risk taker. Plenty of local hotshots find their way to Las Vegas for the World Series of Poker needing only sufficient money to enter. Only the true risk taking gambler emerges victorious with the title -- the percentage player always crushed at the big table.

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