Posted on 06/10/2002 1:59:41 PM PDT by Big Steve
BY SCHUYLER KROPF
Of The Post and Courier Staff
With only days and hours to go, the Republican fight for governor appears to have narrowed: It's Bob Peeler versus Mark Sanford.
A Post and Courier poll of 404 likely Republican primary voters shows the two hopefuls emerging as the strong 1-2 choices going into Tuesday's primary. If the trend holds, Peeler, 50, the current lieutenant governor from Lexington, and Sanford, 42, the ex-congressman from Charleston, would be in line to face off again in two weeks for the right to take on Democratic Gov. Jim Hodges in November.
Under South Carolina election law, if no candidate in a multi-person field collects more than 50 percent of the vote, a run-off is automatically ordered.
It would be held Tuesday, June 25.
Peeler is backed by 39 percent of state Republican primary voters, according to the poll, while Sanford is second with 26 percent.
Attorney General Charlie Condon is a distant third with 15 percent. The other four candidates trail far behind in low single digits.
Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., said Peeler has done the best at solidifying GOP support statewide, but he's also drawing_deep backing from the conservative Upstate - a huge prize where most of the Republican primary turnout is located.
"Peeler in the Upstate is beating Sanford 5-to-1, and he's beating Condon 3-to-1," Coker said. "He might even get close to 50 percent, given that the 11 percent (undecided) is still out there."
Peeler has stayed virtually tied with Sanford in the Republican Midlands, Coker said, but Sanford is winning among voters on the coast, the site of his old 1st Congressional District. That could be his ticket to making the runoff, although turnout also will be a factor. Party leaders expect a minimum of 300,000 voters.
"Sanford has done a pretty good effort at putting together a first-time statewide campaign," Coker said. "The Charleston area vote may be enough to secure him second place."
Most political watchers expected the GOP governor's battle would go to a runoff. The surprising thing, Coker said, is that Sanford has emerged as the choice over Condon, who had enjoyed a wide degree of statewide name identification after eight years as attorney general and as Charleston County's lead prosecutor before that.
But Coker also said Condon - who is known for seeking publicity and a bare-knuckle style of politics - carries a lot of negative baggage. That's reflected in Republican responses. "He's obviously stepped on a few toes over the years," Coker said.
Of all the candidates, Condon had the highest percentage of unfavorable name recognition - and the only double-digit unfavorables in the poll - at 17 percent. Peeler was rated unfavorably by 9 percent of Republican voters, while Sanford's unfavorable ratings were a low 3 percent - despite several attempts by opponents and Democrats to embarrass the candidate.
The poll is based on telephone interviews taken Monday-Wednesday with 404 voters who regularly take part in Republican primaries. The margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points, meaning the results present a 95 percent "true" picture.
And while all the campaigns will be out today trying to shore up their support, a second poll done by the newspaper shows Hodges would be in trouble against either Peeler or Sanford in a hypothetical November general election match-up.
That poll of 500 likely general election voters taken during the same time period shows Hodges leading Peeler 45-44 percent and leading Sanford 44-42 percent. But since both sets of numbers are within the poll's 4.5-point margin of error, the races are statistical toss-ups.
Pollster Coker said the numbers don't bode well for a sitting incumbent governor. "If they had the election tomorrow, Hodges would be hard-pressed to beat either one of these guys," he said.
Hodges is in the same position as former Republican Gov. David Beasley was four years ago, Coker said, explaining that incumbents usually poll around what they are going to get in the general election, because that reflects their base.
"The undecided voters break for the challenger," he said. In this case, that's in favor of the undetermined GOP nominee. "It's a clear sign that he's vulnerable. He's in trouble."
"It's possible in the end he could be re-elected, but it's not a slam dunk," Coker said.
Hodges' best hope against the top three Republicans would be to face Condon in November, the poll found. The Democratic governor holds a commanding 51-36 percent lead vs. the attorney general in their hypothetical match-up.
"That doesn't look like it's going to happen," Coker said.
The other Republicans in the seven-way field - and their percent of support found in the poll - are: Secretary of State Jim Miles, 4 percent; Columbia tax lawyer Ken Wingate, 2 percent; nuclear lab technician Reb Sutherland, 2 percent; Summerville Sen. Bill Branton, 1 percent.
All I know is that I'll be glad when the primaries are over, the ads are overwhelming and obnoxious. Especially the Stan Spears for Adjutant General ad. Joe Wilson's a great guy, but he does the worst radio ad read in history. :)
}:-)4
Not much of a poll.
He was my congressman in Charleston, but now I live in the upstate. He doesn't have the name recognition up here, but hopefully if he gets in the runoff that will change.
Was the Alzheimer's the reason he decided against a run in 1998?
I like his bold statements to end all property tax in SC. It's ludicruous for us to have to rent our property from the government.
Mr. Condon as AG, knows who the enemies of our state are. This knowledge will help Mr. Condon as Governor.
Unless for some reason a voter couldn't legally vote at the time of a primary, I don't want to hear any complaints about a persons voter registration being messed up. Voting in a primary is one of the best ways to find out before a general election if your registration is OK and you're voting at the correct precinct.
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