Posted on 06/10/2002 1:59:41 PM PDT by Big Steve
BY SCHUYLER KROPF
Of The Post and Courier Staff
With only days and hours to go, the Republican fight for governor appears to have narrowed: It's Bob Peeler versus Mark Sanford.
A Post and Courier poll of 404 likely Republican primary voters shows the two hopefuls emerging as the strong 1-2 choices going into Tuesday's primary. If the trend holds, Peeler, 50, the current lieutenant governor from Lexington, and Sanford, 42, the ex-congressman from Charleston, would be in line to face off again in two weeks for the right to take on Democratic Gov. Jim Hodges in November.
Under South Carolina election law, if no candidate in a multi-person field collects more than 50 percent of the vote, a run-off is automatically ordered.
It would be held Tuesday, June 25.
Peeler is backed by 39 percent of state Republican primary voters, according to the poll, while Sanford is second with 26 percent.
Attorney General Charlie Condon is a distant third with 15 percent. The other four candidates trail far behind in low single digits.
Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., said Peeler has done the best at solidifying GOP support statewide, but he's also drawing_deep backing from the conservative Upstate - a huge prize where most of the Republican primary turnout is located.
"Peeler in the Upstate is beating Sanford 5-to-1, and he's beating Condon 3-to-1," Coker said. "He might even get close to 50 percent, given that the 11 percent (undecided) is still out there."
Peeler has stayed virtually tied with Sanford in the Republican Midlands, Coker said, but Sanford is winning among voters on the coast, the site of his old 1st Congressional District. That could be his ticket to making the runoff, although turnout also will be a factor. Party leaders expect a minimum of 300,000 voters.
"Sanford has done a pretty good effort at putting together a first-time statewide campaign," Coker said. "The Charleston area vote may be enough to secure him second place."
Most political watchers expected the GOP governor's battle would go to a runoff. The surprising thing, Coker said, is that Sanford has emerged as the choice over Condon, who had enjoyed a wide degree of statewide name identification after eight years as attorney general and as Charleston County's lead prosecutor before that.
But Coker also said Condon - who is known for seeking publicity and a bare-knuckle style of politics - carries a lot of negative baggage. That's reflected in Republican responses. "He's obviously stepped on a few toes over the years," Coker said.
Of all the candidates, Condon had the highest percentage of unfavorable name recognition - and the only double-digit unfavorables in the poll - at 17 percent. Peeler was rated unfavorably by 9 percent of Republican voters, while Sanford's unfavorable ratings were a low 3 percent - despite several attempts by opponents and Democrats to embarrass the candidate.
The poll is based on telephone interviews taken Monday-Wednesday with 404 voters who regularly take part in Republican primaries. The margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points, meaning the results present a 95 percent "true" picture.
And while all the campaigns will be out today trying to shore up their support, a second poll done by the newspaper shows Hodges would be in trouble against either Peeler or Sanford in a hypothetical November general election match-up.
That poll of 500 likely general election voters taken during the same time period shows Hodges leading Peeler 45-44 percent and leading Sanford 44-42 percent. But since both sets of numbers are within the poll's 4.5-point margin of error, the races are statistical toss-ups.
Pollster Coker said the numbers don't bode well for a sitting incumbent governor. "If they had the election tomorrow, Hodges would be hard-pressed to beat either one of these guys," he said.
Hodges is in the same position as former Republican Gov. David Beasley was four years ago, Coker said, explaining that incumbents usually poll around what they are going to get in the general election, because that reflects their base.
"The undecided voters break for the challenger," he said. In this case, that's in favor of the undetermined GOP nominee. "It's a clear sign that he's vulnerable. He's in trouble."
"It's possible in the end he could be re-elected, but it's not a slam dunk," Coker said.
Hodges' best hope against the top three Republicans would be to face Condon in November, the poll found. The Democratic governor holds a commanding 51-36 percent lead vs. the attorney general in their hypothetical match-up.
"That doesn't look like it's going to happen," Coker said.
The other Republicans in the seven-way field - and their percent of support found in the poll - are: Secretary of State Jim Miles, 4 percent; Columbia tax lawyer Ken Wingate, 2 percent; nuclear lab technician Reb Sutherland, 2 percent; Summerville Sen. Bill Branton, 1 percent.
6/11/02 11:08:55 AM Eastern Daylight Time From: campaign2@comcast.net (Tom Davis)
Tom Davis
Sanford for Governor
Post Office Box 160
Sullivans Island, SC 29482
Telephone: 1-843-883-3149
Facsimile: 1-843-883-9013
John McCain has said that he thinks Mark Sanford will make an excellent governor. He is backing Mark, but that does not
mean that Mark supports all of Senator McCain's views. As to the issue you
mention, Mark is very strongly in favor of citizens' Second Amendment rights,
and voted that way in Congress. That is why the NRA consistently endorsed him in
his congressional races. I have reprinted below an answer recently submitted by
Mark to a questionnaire re: Second Amendment rights. Hope this helps.
1. The Second Amendment states, "A well regulated militia being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed." How do you interpret that?
The Second Amendment is the teeth behind all other rights we hold as Americans, and an armed citizenry is the ultimate check to the power of the state. The amendment as well was placed there by the founding fathers to confirm a pre-existing right of individual citizens to keep and bear arms.
2. There are currently thirty-three states with "shall issue" conceal carry laws which automatically issue licenses so that ordinary citizens who pass a background check and a safety course can carry a handgun for protection of self and loved ones. However, they will not be issued such a license if the police can prove that the person is an imminent danger to the public. What is your position on the practice of allowing citizens to carry firearms in public?
It is known that such practices lead to far lower violent crime rates.
3. Project Safe Neighborhood and Project Exile seeks to reduce crime by mandating tough enforcement of existing laws. Some states, however, have confusing laws that even law enforcement officers don't fully understand. These laws can vary from city to city creating criminals out of otherwise law-abiding citizens. Under Project Safe Neighborhood and Project Exile a lawful, non-violent citizen could end up facing long prison sentences for an unwitting infraction of a confusing law. What is your position regarding those programs?
I support both programs, if they are clarified so that they target only hardcore criminals and ordinary people are not inadvertently committing crimes. Gun laws should give law-abiding citizens both a clear indication of what is expected and should not be enforced in a way that would punish lawful citizens of an unwitting infraction of a confusing law.
4. Many cities, counties, and municipalities are passing their own firearms laws. This confusion makes criminals out of otherwise lawful, non-violent citizens. Should state law prohibit cities and municipalities from creating their own firearms and ammunitions laws?
Absolutely. The current hodgepodge of laws makes no more sense than letting each jurisdiction devise a different set of colors for traffic signals. Or set their own standards for crimes of murder or arson.
5. In order for a trigger lock to work properly, the firearm must first be unloaded. An unloaded firearm with a trigger lock on it is virtually useless as a self-defense device. Do you support laws that mandate the use of trigger locks in the home?
No, because studies have shown that: a) such laws rarely improve public safety, and in some cases, those laws actually endanger more people; b) government is not able to evaluate each person's risk factors, so we should let the individual decide what safety measures would work best for their situation; and c) government should not be in the business of deciding how much delay is acceptable in cases of self-defense.
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End of message from the Sanford campaign.
I am not supporting Sanford in this primary, BTW. This is FYI only, for future reference.
Good call! Headline in this morning's Charlotte Observer: Sanford leads in big upset by S.C. voters. Personally, I was most surprised with Charlie Condon's collapse. Revenge of the video poker players, maybe? Sanford 39%, Peeler 37%, Condon 16%.
I'd still have to think Peeler would be the favorite in the runoff, but he's got to get his peeps to the polls. Statewide turnout yesterday was 18%, according to the Observer, but only 8% in York County (that's Rock Hill, just across the state line from Charlotte). Presumably, turnout was better in the Low Country (Sanford's base), and weaker Upstate. We'll see if that pattern holds.
Condon's vote didn't materialize. (I am also disappointed in his attitude after the primary.) When it comes to being 'presidential' in front of the public, Mr. Condon did well during the primary. Not so good after. I wish he would endorse Peeler.
I'll give another, IMO: Peeler will get the Wingate, Miles and Sutherland vote as well as part of the Condon vote. I think Peeler will beat Sanford except if all the demokrats who didn't vote, cross over and vote for the more liberal Sanford.
David Thomas, (for Lt. Gov.) has a hard next two weeks ahead of him, but I hope he wins.
Thank you for your comments. I am very familiar with Southern NC, BTW. You guys are taxed too much.
The run-away growth of SC government is alarming. The power educators have accummulated is also alarming. There doesn't seem to be any desire to control them.
"I sure hope they stop going at one another and focus on Hodges."
Yes, and down play the socialism.
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