Posted on 06/06/2002 8:38:32 AM PDT by Jambe
Posted on Wed, Jun. 05, 2002
Software glitch overestimated pollution health risks
WASHINGTON (AP) - Scientists revising a study of tiny pollution particles from diesel engines and power plants found a computer glitch that might mean less health risk than previously thought and could delay new federal rules.
Research by investigators at Johns Hopkins University's biostatistics department indicates the software used for the study of 90 large American cities was overestimating the rise in the typical mortality rate.
The study is just one of more than 100 the Environmental Protection Agency is examining as it prepares to issue regulations next year. But the software in question could be a problem because it is used by many of the studies, agency spokesman Joe Martyak, said Wednesday.
``Our deadline for getting this out is the end of 2003 and this software issue may impact our ability to meet that deadline,'' Martyak said. ``We still believe strongly in the tie between the particulate matter and the health effects that it creates.''
The original study found pollution particles responsible for higher death rates and more hospital stays among the elderly. It was released in June 2000 by the Cambridge, Mass.-based Health Effects Institute, which paid for the research. The institute is funded in equal parts by the EPA and the auto industry.
The new research does not undermine the widely accepted link between air pollution and premature death. But it cut by half the previous estimated rate of increase in the death rate when measured by increases in the number of particles in the air.
``Depending on the city, and the trends of air pollution, mortality and weather in that city,'' the software ``can bias the estimate of relative risk of air pollution upward or downward,'' institute president Dan Greenbaum wrote colleagues about the new findings.
The study looked at tiny atmospheric particles of 10 microns or less in diameter. A micron is equal to one-thousandth of a millimeter.
About 60 percent of particulate matter comes from combustion sources, such as cars and power plants. The other 40 percent comes from construction, agriculture and road-related pollution, such as tiny pieces of brakes and tires.
The highest correlation between pollution particles and higher death rates and more hospital stays among the elderly was found in cities in the Northeast, especially New York, where the increase in mortality was more than twice the average of other cities.
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``Depending on the city, and the trends of air pollution, mortality and weather in that city,'' the software ``can bias the estimate of relative risk of air pollution upward or downward,'' institute president Dan Greenbaum wrote colleagues about the new findings.
When belief supercedes data, your science is specious. Their experimental model is flawed, yet they are convinced of the outcome. This is called investigator bias.
Purge these Clinton "scientists!!"
They used software that wasn't validated for their study? What kind of low rent bureaucrats would do that? They should market the product to all liberals, call it Stats-arific from the people at LeftAgenda.con. Just another snafu that leads to bad law making.
What is a "computer glitch"?
The old term GIGO "Garbage In, Gargage Out" comes to mind. Using the term "computer glitch" gives the impression that they incorrectly programmed the wrong formula. Another possibility is that they programmed the correct formula, but the formula proved to be bogus.
They should take responsibility for their mistakes. Stop blaming the computer.
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