Posted on 05/29/2002 3:45:27 PM PDT by Timesink
All six of the top-tier contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination, plus the upwardly mobile (ratings-wise) Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, have stepped up their criticisms of President Bush.
Former Vice President Al Gore, Senators John Kerry and Joseph Lieberman, and Dean have been the most vocal. Congressional leaders Tom Daschle and Richard Gephardt have been reined in somewhat by their day jobs, while Senator John Edwards has incorporated some raps on Bush into his introductory stump speech, without getting too substantive.
The environment, the tax cut, Social Security, the budget, and more recently, foreign policy and homeland security all have been the basis for Democratic critiques of Bush, as the would-be candidates compete for the hearts and minds of a party base whose September 11-inflated approval of Bush's job performance has declined.
The biggest single development in the Invisible Primary since the last go-round has been the re-emergence of a beardless — if not exactly fighting trim — Gore, with his speech at the mid-April Florida Democratic party convention in Orlando, his Earth Day address attacking Bush at Vanderbilt University, his decent leadership PAC showing for the first quarter of 2002, his re-gathering of some former supporters, and his forthcoming book tour with wife Tipper.
As we have said before, effort matters big in the Invisible Primary, and Gore's re-emergence — albeit hardly smooth, with no apparent rationale behind when he chooses to comment via press release on news developments, and when to stay silent— has projected him from his fourth-place showing in our last round of ratings upward to the top slot, boosted by the undeniable residual advantages he possesses as the party's 2000 nominee.
Gore hasn't actually done all that much to help himself, but simply by being out on the track, he now takes up a lot of space.
Ranked in order (averaging the totals for each candidate), the lowest candidate is the leader so far. The closer to 1.0 a candidate is, the better he's doing.
 ABC 2004:The Invisible Primary Summary |
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| Name |
Average Now
|
Average in Feb. 2002
|
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| 1. Al Gore |
2.8
|
3.8
|
|||||
| 2. Rep. Dick Gephardt |
3.1
|
3.5
|
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| 2. Sen. John Kerry |
3.1
|
3.05
|
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| 4. Sen. John Edwards |
3.6
|
3.2
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|||||
| 5. Sen. Tom Daschle |
4.3
|
4.85
|
|||||
| 6. Sen. Joseph Lieberman |
4.9
|
4.15
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| 7. Former Sen. Bill Bradley |
7.7
|
8.15
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| 8. Gov. Howard Dean |
8.15
|
8.85
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| 9. Gov. Gray Davis |
8.6
|
8.35
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| 10. Sen. Chris Dodd |
9.55
|
10.85
|
|||||
| 11. Sen. Joseph Biden |
10.45
|
11.2
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| 12. Rev. Al Sharpton |
10.7
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NOT RANKED
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To repeat from our initial round of ratings: in no way are they meant to reflect any individual Democrat's chances of beating President Bush in 2004. They are intended to reflect one's chances of winning the Democratic nomination.
For example, the "Message/Issues" category attempts to gauge a candidate's message as it would be received by the Democratic electorate and Establishment — not how it would play in a general election.
While we do have one category that looks beyond the nominating contest to a presumed battle with President Bush ("Perceived Electability"), even that attempts to measure the perception within the party of a candidate's ability to win the presidency.
In short, no one should interpret these ratings as saying that the current leader, Gore, necessarily has the best chance of beating President Bush in November 2004.
Given the highly in-flux, unsettled field, we freely admit that Gore's current status could wind up — as Kerry and Daschle's did earlier — having the metaphorical staying power of a tracking poll.
Until and unless Gore sticks his neck out and gets his head handed to him on the campaign trail — until he suffers a series of visible setbacks in actively seeking support or endorsements, or in raising money — his presumed strength is likely to keep him at or near the top.
As before, explanations of each category are located beneath the chart.
Once again, we encourage all you readers to e-mail us your comments on any or all of this—Blackberry-equipped candidates included.
Candidates are ranked from one to 12—one being the highest, best, most good, 12 being the weakest, worst, and least good. See below for a comprehensive explanation of the categories. We've divided the candidates into two tiers, with the top tier representing those most likely to run and win.
ABC 2004:The Invisible Primary |
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| ABC 2004 |
Tom Daschle
|
John Edwards
|
Dick Gephardt
|
Al Gore
|
John Kerry
|
Joe Lieberman
|
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| Money Potential |
5
|
5
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
4
|
|||
| Message/Issues |
3
|
6
|
3
|
1
|
2
|
5
|
|||
| Iowa |
3
|
5
|
1
|
1
|
6
|
9
|
|||
| New Hampshire |
8
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
5
|
|||
| Other States |
6
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
5
|
|||
| Perceived Electability |
1
|
1
|
5
|
5
|
3
|
4
|
|||
| In-person Campaigning skills |
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
|||
| Television Campaigning skills |
1
|
4
|
6
|
2
|
2
|
5
|
|||
| Anti-Terrorism Credentials |
4
|
9
|
4
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
|||
| Media coverage |
6
|
1
|
5
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
|||
| Buzz and Momentum |
6
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
2
|
5
|
|||
| Clinton Factor |
5
|
1
|
6
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
|||
| Polling, Name I.D. |
3
|
8
|
3
|
1
|
8
|
2
|
|||
| Fire in the Belly |
8
|
1
|
3
|
6
|
3
|
5
|
|||
| Endorsements |
3
|
6
|
2
|
1
|
4
|
4
|
|||
| Labor |
6
|
4
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
7
|
|||
| Democratic Base Vote |
3
|
5
|
2
|
1
|
4
|
6
|
|||
| Un-Gore |
2
|
1
|
7
|
12
|
3
|
5
|
|||
| Party Support |
6
|
4
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
5
|
|||
| Staff/Consultants |
6
|
1
|
1
|
4
|
1
|
5
|
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