Arafat's Support Falters

RAMALLAH, West Bank (AP) - Yasser Arafat is at his weakest in years, with his popularity down and his people clamoring for reform. Yet, no serious challenger has emerged, according to political analysts and a new opinion poll released Tuesday.

Marwan Barghouti, a key street leader of the Palestinian uprising, is the front-runner among potential contenders - but he's been sitting in an Israeli jail since the army detained him last month during a sweep through the West Bank.

Criticism of Arafat and his Palestinian Authority is becoming increasingly open as conditions in the Palestinian areas continue to deteriorate after almost 20 months of Mideast fighting.

The violence continued Tuesday as a 17-year-old Palestinian was killed in a clash with Israeli forces near the border with Egypt, Palestinians said. The Israeli military said soldiers opened fire on Palestinians who came to the border fence to pick up smuggled weapons.

Also, Israeli forces destroyed three Palestinian houses in central Gaza near the site of a bombing Monday night, residents said. The Israeli military said the houses, apparently empty, were used as cover for militants who have planted several bombs on the road in recent weeks.

The uprising, intended to move the Palestinians toward statehood, has so far failed to do that, and Arafat is seen as reluctant to call it off without having made tangible gains.

``The belief in the street is that (Arafat) is not projecting leadership, that it is not clear what he wants,'' said Khalil Shikaki, considered the leading Palestinian pollster. ``He has failed on two challenges - ending (Israeli) occupation and building a democratic state.''

Yet there is no real replacement waiting in the wings, and there won't be as long as the conflict with Israel continues, Shikaki said. Arafat ``will continue to be seen as the embodiment of aspirations of ending occupation. As long as Arafat lives, there will be no second man.''

Arafat has the support of 35 percent of Palestinians, according to Shikaki's poll. That's down from around 70 percent after he was elected six years ago, and 46 percent in July 2000, before the outbreak of fighting with Israel. His approval rating has been in the 30s for the past year.

The survey was conducted May 15-18 by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, an independent think tank led by Shikaki, with 1,317 adults interviewed face to face. It quoted a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

Barghouti, the leader of Arafat's Fatah movement in the West Bank, came in second with 19 percent, up from 11 percent in December. Known for his fiery speeches urging Palestinians to confront Israel's military occupation, Barghouti was arrested on suspicion he financed and coordinated attacks on Israelis by Fatah gunmen.

It soared when he was effectively imprisoned in his Ramallah office by Israeli troops from March 29 to May 2. But with his release, Palestinians are demanding reforms that include new elections, a revamped Cabinet, restructured security forces and an end to corruption.

``During the Israeli incursion, the increase in support for Arafat was mostly an emotional response,'' said Ghassan Khatib, a Palestinian political analyst. ``But now people are again judging him on practical criteria. The incursion created larger problems for the Palestinian people, and as a result, their criticisms are growing, too.''

Tuesday's poll indicated tremendous internal pressure on Arafat to carry out reforms.

Ninety-five percent of respondents support firing Cabinet ministers suspected of corruption, 85 percent back streamlining the multiple security services, and 92 percent want Arafat to sign the Basic Law, a type of constitution, passed by the Palestinian parliament several years ago.

Last week, parliament asked Arafat to disband the Cabinet and called for presidential and parliamentary elections by the beginning of next year.

Arafat's aides said the Palestinian leader endorses general elections within six months, but that Israel must first withdraw troops to positions they held before the outbreak of fighting in September 2000.

Khatib, the political analyst, said he views the talk of reform as cover for a political power struggle among senior Palestinian figures, though the factions are not directly challenging Arafat.

``During the effective absence of the president, some of the political elite took more prominent positions. The others are now fighting back,'' Khatib said. ``None are fighting Arafat, but they are competing for control of the second level. Arafat alone controls the top level.''

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, an enemy of Arafat's for decades, has made it clear he would like to see a new Palestinian leader and does not consider Arafat a potential peace partner.

Such talk is probably counterproductive in Palestinian areas, where people bristle at the notion that Israel would play a role in selecting its leaders.

Arafat, 72, has never named a successor, and other senior leaders of his generation are considered less and less likely to replace him.

Barghouti is one of several Palestinians in their 40s who have assumed high-profile positions in recent years. Others include the main security chief in the West Bank, Jibril Rajoub, and his counterpart in the Gaza Strip, Mohammed Dahlan.

But Rajoub's standing suffered when the Israeli forces pounded his hilltop compound in Ramallah last month and forced the surrender of those inside, including militants wanted by Israel. Rajoub was not present at the compound during the siege and was widely criticized.

Rajoub and Dahlan have been feuding in the wake of the Israeli incursion, with Rajoub accusing Dahlan of trying take over control of the security forces in the West Bank.

Egyptian officials rebuffed Rajoub in Cairo over the weekend when Rajoub sought support in his struggle with Dahlan, according to Egyptian and Palestinian officials speaking on condition of anonymity. The Palestinian ambassador to Egypt, Zuhdi al-Qidwa, also told The Associated Press that Rajoub - once one of Arafat's closest associates - was not ``authorized by the Palestinian Authority to conduct any contacts with any Egyptian official.''

As long as Arafat lives, there will be no second man.

Gee, that could be fixed quite easily I do belive.

Arafat can blow up women and children till the cows come home, and the Palestinians will love that. But what they won't put up with is losing. Islamic martyrs expect to gain a big victory IN THIS WORLD, as well as the next, and if it doesn't play out that way, then they are no longer regarded as heroes, but as suckers. No one cheered the Pakistanis who rushed off to Afghanistan and got killed for nothing. That's why it's essential to show the Arabs that VIOLENCE DOESN'T WORK. As long as they think it is working, they will keep doing it.

"...That's why it's essential to show the Arabs that VIOLENCE DOESN'T WORK. As long as they think it is working, they will keep doing it..."

Sharon was EXTREMELY careful not to kill Arafatt during the needed clean-out of the terrorist areas.

He understands that the Palis have to kill him, for any peace to happen, a piece of violence that could work.

Stay well and vigilant.........FRegards

Best news of the day.

Talk about a guy that doesn't care about his own people! They are pawns to him.

He sold his own people down the river just so he could be in a position of power and play a high stakes gambit. Wouldn't surprise me if he chuckles about the young men that splatter themselves the way the OBL chucked about his bombers and how they didn't know what they were doing.

When will those people wake up and see that they've been crapped on by their own 'president'???? I hope soon.

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