Perry leads by 25 points in poll

The Dallas Morning News ^ | May 20, 2002 | By GEORGE KUEMPEL / The Dallas Morning News

[MeekOneGOP]

Perry leads by 25 points in poll

Results reveal ethnic divide; Sanchez says deficit is 12 points

05/20/2002

By GEORGE KUEMPEL / The Dallas Morning News

AUSTIN - Gov. Rick Perry enjoys a commanding 25-point lead over Democratic challenger Tony Sanchez in a matchup sharply divided along racial lines, according to a new poll of likely voters.

With the election five months away, Mr. Perry is ahead in every part of the state, including Mr. Sanchez's purported stronghold along the border and in South Texas.

Those surveyed also had a higher favorable impression of Mr. Perry than Mr. Sanchez, a Laredo banker and oilman in his first run for office.

Jeff Montgomery of Austin, a Democratic consultant and pollster whose firm conducted the survey, said the findings bode badly for Mr. Sanchez, who spent $20 million in the March primary.

"It surprised me because he [Mr. Sanchez] spent a great deal of money running in the Democratic primary, but he had a moderate-to-conservative message, which should be something the general election voters are attracted to," said Mr. Montgomery, who is not working for either campaign.

Sanchez spokesman Mark Sanders disputed the findings.

"Our numbers show a dramatic difference. We've never been further than 12 points behind the governor. We feel real good about where we are," he said.

Ray Sullivan, a Perry spokesman, said: "It is consistent with what we are seeing in our internal polling. I think it makes it clear why Mr. Sanchez has launched four negative attack ads in the past four days."

In the survey, Mr. Perry was the favorite of 59 percent, and 34 percent favored Mr. Sanchez. The rest were undecided.

The poll of 1,066 Texans who voted in at least one of the last two general elections was conducted May 7-13 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning the result could vary that much in either direction.

The poll shows a strong split along ethnic lines.

Mr. Sanchez was the heavy favorite of Hispanics and blacks, while whites backed Mr. Perry 3 to 1.

Mr. Montgomery said the numbers indicated that Mr. Sanchez might have overplayed the ethnic issue in the primary.

"Sanchez made speaking Spanish and being Hispanic and Mexican-American and roots in that culture a pretty big part of his message, and it may be that was a little bit too strong," he said.

During the primary, Mr. Sanchez said that he was proud to be bilingual and bicultural and that diversity makes Texas great.

E-mail: gkuempel@dallasnews.com

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Online at: http://www.dallasnews.com/texassouthwest/stories/052002dntexgovpoll.a07ad.html

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

This can't be. Haven't the media types been saying ever since the primary that the Democrat Hispanic, Black, Anglo 'Dream Team', was unbeatable, and that they were going to beat Perry and company like a drum?

[Flyer]

Mr. Sanchez said that he was proud to be bilingual and bicultural and that diversity makes Texas great.

Bicultural? That's a new one for me. Mr. Sanchez, does that mean that you admit that Texas has now been split culturally? Instead of being proud of this shouldn't you work to unite Texans?

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

The poll shows a strong split along ethnic lines.

Mr. Sanchez was the heavy favorite of Hispanics and blacks, while whites backed Mr. Perry 3 to 1.

You show me a race with a black Democratic nominee in it, and I'll show you a race with "a strong split along ethnic lines."

Now if J.C. Watts were up for the seat against a white Democrat the "split along ethnic lines" would be less than usual.

[Coop]

Haven't the media types been saying ever since the primary that the Democrat Hispanic, Black, Anglo 'Dream Team', was unbeatable, and that they were going to beat Perry and company like a drum?

I've actually heard the Dream Team discussion applied to the Kirk Senate race against John Cornyn. Early polls show that to be a much closer race, though Cornyn is leading.

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

Early polls show that to be a much closer race, though Cornyn is leading.

I have to say that I would believe massive lying to pollsters before I would believe that Texas will be the first state in American history to elect a black liberal Democrat.

[ProudGOP]

Texas will be the first state in American history to elect a black liberal Democrat

I'm pretty sure others have already beaten us to it.

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

I'm pretty sure others have already beaten us to it.

Oops, I meant to say:

I have to say that I would believe massive lying to pollsters before I would believe that Texas will be the first state in American history to elect a black liberal Democrat United States Senator.

[Destructor]

Maybe there's hope. Perry is somewhat Republican, and definately the lesser of two evils. Sanchez would not be good for the great State of Texas!

[RobbyS]

Unlike California, the Republicans in Texas like Bush and Perry have worked pretty hard not to rile up the Blacks and Mexicans. But as we saw in the last election cycle, this doesn't prevent racist demogogues from starting a smear compaign.

[Robert A Cook PE]

Bummer .... The DNC message of diversity must of got lost in their racial hatred of Americans.

[Tacis]

But, the poll did not include the millions of Mexicans on both sides of the border who will vote in the election. A Mexican can cross over into El Paso and make 25 pesos a vote. He could go home with 400-500 pesos in his pockets. The dems pay much better in California.

[Coop]

I have to say that I would believe massive lying to pollsters before I would believe that Texas will be the first state in American history to elect a black liberal Democrat United States Senator.

Illinois' Carol Mosely Braun holds that "honor." There was also another black Senator, though I can't recall his name or whether he was a liberal.

[al_c]

I'm not surprised. IMO ... how can the Hispanic community support this fraud when he turns his back on a fellow Latino (Morales) and gives his support to Ron Kirk instead? Doesn't look like Sanchez is supporting his own kind.

[Dog Gone]

The "Dream Team" of Texas Democrats is actually the "Crack Team," as in "they're smoking crack if they think they can actually win."

[MeekOneGOP]

Unlike California, the Republicans in Texas like Bush and Perry have
worked pretty hard not to rile up the Blacks and Mexicans. But as we
saw in the last election cycle, this doesn't prevent racist demogogues
from starting a smear compaign.

Yeah, I still remember the NAACP smearing Bush by implying that he
personally dragged James Byrd behind the pickup truck.........

[MeekOneGOP]

LOL!

[RobbyS]

And what bothers me is the hysteria(or is it resentment?) that always seems to lie under the surface in the black community. The majority seem to believe everything. Right now Kirk is talking like a " unifeier," but I wonder how far left he will go to solidify his black base?

[deport]

Have you seen any polling data on the Senate race?

[The South Texan]

Well this is good despite my feelings towards polls. I figured with all of the negative advertising Sanchez has been running down here and the lack of response from Perry that the gap would be musch closer. I could tell Sanchez was desperate because of those commercials.