Posted on 05/14/2002 9:45:51 AM PDT by ThreeYearLurker
Several staunch anti-abortion activists, stunned by Ron Saxton's rapid rise in the polls, are raising the threat of a third-party candidacy if he wins the Republican nomination for governor.
Saxton, who supports abortion rights and is close to many longtime Republican moderates such as Norma Paulus and Bob Packwood, has come under an increasingly withering attack from the party's right.
Saxton said Monday that abortion should not be a big issue in the race and that he considers himself conservative on a wide range of issues. But his two chief rivals in the May 21 primary, Jack Roberts and Kevin Mannix, have been hitting him hard on social issues -- chiefly abortion -- in their advertising.
Now some social conservatives are warning that the Republican Party could be in for a repeat of 1990, when anti-abortion advocates ran an independent candidate, Al Mobley, who helped cripple the candidacy of Republican Dave Frohnmayer and throw the race to Democrat Barbara Roberts.
"If Saxton wins, we're going to have a third-party candidacy and we're going to have another Democratic governor," said Lou Beres, chairman of the Christian Coalition's Oregon chapter.
Beres, a Mannix supporter, said leaders of the Constitution Party will recruit a candidate if Saxton wins the primary. He said tax activist Bill Sizemore, who was the Republican Party's 1998 gubernatorial nominee, might run under the Constitution Party banner.
Sizemore, who had been angered by Roberts' opposition to several of his ballot initiatives, left the Republican Party this year and threatened to run against Roberts if he won the primary. But the two have reached something of a cease-fire, with Roberts appearing for a second time on Sizemore's radio show Monday.
Sizemore now says he won't run if Mannix wins and is "unlikely" to do so if Roberts is the nominee. He refused to say whether he would run against Saxton, saying he didn't want to talk about that until after the primary.
Saxton, former chairman of a big Portland corporate law firm whose only elected office was a stint on the city's school board, has been campaigning since 1999 and had persuaded a large number of big Republican donors to back him. He was virtually unknown to the public until a month ago, when he unleashed a big advertising campaign that has brought him into the thick of the race.
A poll taken last week for The Oregonian and KATU (2) showed Saxton at 31 percent support, with Mannix at 25 percent and Roberts at 23 percent. Given the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points, that could make the race a dead heat. Another poll, taken last week for KGW (8), had Roberts at 23 percent and Saxton and Mannix at 22 percent apiece.
In contrast, one early March poll showed Saxton with 8 percent of the vote.
As Saxton has risen, he has taken hits from social conservatives who see him as a throwback to the days when Republican moderates dominated the party. They complained that he has been open to changes in Oregon's mandatory-sentencing laws, has supported Democrats at times and has refused to support a bill that would ban a late-term procedure some critics call "partial-birth" abortion.
Saxton said that he isn't seeking any changes in crime laws and that he backed Democrats sometimes because he headed a law firm that had to maintain ties to the state's congressional delegation. And he has said questions about late-term abortion procedures should be left to a woman and her doctor.
"Social issues are not what should be the litmus test in this race," Saxton said Monday. "This is about a state that has the highest unemployment in America and schools that are struggling -- and that needs to be the focus."
Saxton said he would try to talk with a wide variety of Republicans if he wins the primary in an attempt to avoid a repeat of Frohnmayer's 1990 loss. For example, his spokesman, Michael Beard, said Saxton would be willing to discuss legislation with Oregon Right to Life, the state's largest anti-abortion group. "His door would be open to them," Beard said.
Roberts and Mannix said they opposed any threats of a third-party candidacy even if Saxton wins. But they continue to make strong appeals to social conservatives.
Roberts put out a new mailer featuring former House Speaker Lynn Snodgrass, R-Damascus, that criticizes Saxton on the "partial-birth" abortion issue. "The best thing to do is nominate someone who can work with all elements of the party," said Roberts, who says he backs a woman's right to an abortion but would sign at least three bills putting new restrictions on the practice.
Mannix promotes himself as the only real "pro-life" candidate in the race and said social conservatives are learning of their differences with Saxton. "The sheep's clothing is being removed," he said.
Saxton did raise some Republican eyebrows when he appeared at a Portland candidate forum organized by X-Pac, a group of young political activists, and described himself simply as "pro-choice" and spoke approvingly of providing benefits for same-sex partners. He also said he had been inspired by progressive Republicans such as former Sen. Mark O. Hatfield and the late Gov. Tom McCall.
On Monday, Saxton said despite his position on abortion, he could appeal to social conservatives because he is a "very religious person" who came from a "fundamentalist background." You can reach Jeff Mapes at 503-221-8209 or by e-mail at jeffmapes@news.oregonian.com
Sizemore is perhaps the worst candidate the Republicans have put up for statewide office in my lifetime. I would vote for Hillary before I'd vote for him. But if he runs, the Democratic candidate is sure to win.
This is a very winnable race. I'd rather have a moderate republican that will sign the bills the legislature gives them, than another Dr. No.
If Saxton wins, I won't vote for him.
Translation:
"If I can't have things exactly my way, I'm going to pick up my marbles and go home!"
Don't these birds realize that the Governor of Orgegon's position on abortion matters not one whit?
Do they think things will somehow be better with a Dimocrat for governor?
Abortion is currently a federally-guaranteed "right", and there's not a thing the governor can do about that, one way or the other.
I think it's precisely social issues which should be the litmus test in most elections. If they were, we might not have tens of thousands of abortions each year, including thousands of partial birth abortions (infanticide), 50% of college women infected with different venereal diseases (some of which will leave them sterile), homosexuality being encouraged in our middle and high schools, black inner-city society encumbered with sky high fatherlessness, widespread cheating on school exams, drugs widely sold and available in almost all suburban middle and high schools (not to mention inner-city schools), widespread rudeness and use of profanity in every public school in the nation, and the general disintegration of the family.
I think Sizemore or Mannix should quit and support Roberts. If neither will however, then Roberts should quit and support Mannix. Sizemore is the newbie, you have to wonder if he is a Democrat plant who is just running to screw up the Republican chances in this race?
Sizemore isn't in the race yet, but he is a loser from the get go. I still haven't decided who to vote for yet.
Is it such a feather in such a cretin's cap to merely claim to be Republican?
Also are there ANY actual principles that you ex[ect Republicans to stick to?
Inquiring minds want to know.
We need to fix this state, and all of the RAT opponents are liberal, and terrible. Electing a republican governor that will vote along with the conservative legislature is a start.
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