Posted on 04/30/2002 3:41:38 PM PDT by knighthawk
While the international community closely monitors the ongoing developments in the Palestinian territories, it underestimates the probability of full-scale clashes between the Israeli army and the Iranian-backed Hizbullah. As tensions escalate on the Israeli-Lebanese border, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell’s recently visited Lebanon and Syria in an effort to encourage restraint.
However, the Israeli army and Hizbullah are continuing to prepare for an imminent confrontation. An analysis of Syria’s recent moves in Lebanon indicates that it is taking steps to disassociate itself with this situation in order to avoid Israeli attacks in Syria. However, experts anticipate that the Israeli army will also launch an offensive against Syria if it engages with Hizbullah.
It should be noted that about two weeks ago the Saudi daily Al Watan reported that Israel had asked U.S. permission to attack targets in Syria following Hizbullah assaults. However, according to the Saudi report, the Bush administration turned down this Israeli request.
In the meantime, an Israeli pre-emptive strike against Hizbullah becomes an increasingly viable option for Tel Aviv due to intelligence reports claiming that Hizbullah has access to long-range missiles, which have the ability to reach targets in central Israel.
Attack on Syria
The Israeli press quoted on Tuesday security sources as saying that “Syrian President Bashar Assad has not exerted any restraining influence on Hizbullah in the past month, during which the Lebanon-based resistance group has renewed its attacks.” This can be perceived as a sign that Israel is shaping public opinion to gain support for a military campaign against Syria.
Hizbullah began initiating attacks against Israel, in the occupied Shebaa Farms, about a month ago, with the strikes lasting about two weeks. Israel retaliated by striking Hizbullah targets in southern Lebanon. Last Friday, the Hizbullah activity was renewed, but the area has been quiet since.
The Israeli security sources told the Tel Aviv-based Ha'aretz daily that there was no indication that Syria had tried to restrain Hizbullah.
Furthermore, according to an article published recently in Jane's Defense Weekly, Hizbullah has almost total control of south Lebanon and is expanding its cooperation with Ahmed Jibril's Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command in an effort to open a new front with Israel.
At the same time, the journal noted that there has been a recent mobilization of Hizbullah forces in the south.
In a related development, the London-based magazine conveyed that the latest Syrian troop redeployment away from Beirut to a point above the village of Rashaya on the southern tip of the Bekaa Valley has left south Lebanon under the complete control of Hizbullah.
Syria announced that the redeployment was carried out in compliance with the 1989 Taif Agreements. But Jane's asserted that the real reason was the "significant deterioration" of Syria's fighting capability over the last decade and its fear of Israeli reprisals in Beirut for Hizbullah attacks.
It noted that Hizbullah's command-and-control facilities are situated in crowded urban areas and cannot be targeted without inflicting substantial civilian damage. Anticipation of Israeli strikes against alternative targets - telecommunication and utility centers in Beirut - are thought to have been the real reasons for the Syrian redeployment.
A senior Lebanese Army officer, quoted by Jane's, confirmed that the redeployment was a clear indication of Syria's declining military capability: "They are saying [through the redeployment] that they will not be involved in any conflict here any more. "The Syrians are strong enough to maintain order within their own borders, and to an extent within Lebanon," said the officer. "But they are not strong enough to fight the Israelis. They will never fight the Israelis again."
Hizbullah arsenal
Meanwhile, Western intelligence sources said Israel and the United States have been monitoring Lebanon for evidence that Islamic insurgents have been storing weapons of mass destruction. The sources said the evidence is not conclusive, but that both countries suspect that Al Qaeda and Hizbullah are cooperating in the transfer and storage of chemical weapons.
The sources said the non-conventional weapons are believed stored in two locations in Lebanon. Both of the locations are along the Mediterranean coast near Beirut.
According to these sources, Al Qaeda and Hizbullah - with help of Iranian agents - are believed to be experimenting with weaponising surface-to-surface rockets with chemical warheads. Hizbullah has some 10,000 rockets, a quarter of them believed to be the Iranian Fajr-5, with a range of 70 kilometers.
The evidence of chemical warheads in Lebanon has prompted harsh warnings by Washington to Lebanon. The sources said Lebanese Prime Minister, Rafiq al Hariri was shown evidence during his recent Washington visit that Iran was helping Hizbullah deploy rockets throughout southern and eastern Lebanon.
The focus of the Iranian missile help is the Imam Ali military base in the Bekaa Valley near the Syrian border. The sources said Iran virtually controls much of the Bekaa Valley, to the “increasing consternation” of Syrian military officers.
If people want on or off this list, please let me know.
Hizbollah may step up in their attacks on Israel.
Maybe you CAN teach an old rat new tricks!
Depressing thought...The reason we're going back to Iraq is that we didn't finish the job the first time...
Weakness is one of the Islamist's favorite Food Groups...Israel is off Syria's menu for a reason...
Please note: Dubya!!! Use more Habanero's to make US Citizens unpalatable...
"That Texas Chili is too much for me, Habibi, pass the hummous please! I'm having a MAALOX Moment"
Nuclear, Biological, & Chemical Warfare- Survival Skills, Pt. II
Tiny Nukes-- the backpack threat
The Poor-Boy Nuke-- Bioterrorism***
The Samson Option-- what is known about Israel's Nuclear Weapons?
Should the mapmakers change the color of the Bekaa Valley to the same color as Iran?
This destroys any credibility this article may have had.(at least for me.)
The Samson Project was fascinating, if a bit depressing that the scumbucket betrayed his people and then converted...A JINO! of all things!!.
Profiled immediately. BR! SS
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