Mecca, Iraq, West Bank...
We'll call it the 'Hashemite Option'.
Dan 8:9
Posted on 04/19/2002 6:35:35 PM PDT by 11B3
Saudis Desperate for Russian Help
19 April 2002
Summary
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al Faisal traveled to Moscow April 18 to seek Russia's help in countering a belligerent U.S. agenda against Iraq. But Saudi Arabia has little to offer Russia and will likely leave empty-handed, so Riyadh will have few options left but to ally with rogue nations Iran and Iraq.
Analysis
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al Faisal traveled to Moscow April 18 to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov. The three talked about Iraq, the recent Saudi-proposed Israeli-Palestinian peace plan and Moscow's involvement in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia is seeking Russia's help to counter the U.S. agenda in the Middle East. Frightened by the potential consequences of a U.S. strike against Iraq, Riyadh hopes to reverse Moscow's waning support of Baghdad and revive its involvement in Middle East politics. But the Saudi government won't get much more than rhetoric from Russia, and this will leave it looking for allies among the same rogue nations already targeted by Washington.
A possible Saudi-Iraq-Iran coalition to resist U.S. pressure -- even a temporary one built out of necessity -- would entirely reshape regional politics and pose a significant dilemma to the United States. None of the three trust each other, even though technically Iran and Saudi Arabia have a security cooperation agreement. But together they could bring greater political and economic pressure to bear on the smaller Persian Gulf states, upon which Washington grows increasingly reliant.
The government in Riyadh is worried that a U.S. war against Iraq would incite opposition within Saudi Arabia. It has already tried to counter the U.S. agenda by reviving the Middle East peace process and attempting to bring all the Arab states on board. However, Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah's efforts at coalition building -- meant to deflect U.S. pressure for cooperation against Iraq -- failed miserably. Almost half the Arab heads of state failed to show at the March 26-27 Arab League summit in Beirut.
The Saudi government is now turning to global powers like Russia and the European Union to offset U.S. hegemony. In addition to Faisal's trip to Moscow, Riyadh has also called on the EU to do more to end the violence in Israel. But this second attempt at coalition building is also doomed to fail. Europe's involvement in the peace process has done little to alter either Israeli or Palestinian war fighting policies.
Russia and Saudi Arabia have taken U-turns regarding policy toward Baghdad. Saudi Arabia backed the first U.S. war against Iraq, but does not want to see a similar military campaign now. Russia, which opposed Desert Storm, is now working with the United States.
Moscow has several reasons not to cooperate with Saudi Arabia. Most importantly, Putin is concentrating his efforts on rebuilding the Russian empire, at least in part through a strategic partnership with the United States, and has apparently traded opposition to a strike against Iraq in exchange for cooperation with Washington.
Moscow and Riyadh are also longtime geopolitical foes, with Russia traditionally backing Saudi Arabia's regional competitors: Iran, Iraq, Syria and even Yemen. Riyadh supported the Afghan opposition during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and Moscow now accuses it of backing Muslim rebels in Chechnya.
Even if Russia were more amenable to improving relations, Riyadh does not have much to offer, save the disruption of Saudi financial aid for the Chechens. Russia claims that non-governmental organizations in Ingushetia and Dagestan are funded with Saudi money, and that Chechen rebels rely upon these organizations for aid and supplies, thereby prolonging the conflict, said Mark Katz, a professor of government and politics at George Mason University. Riyadh denies that the government has any involvement in supporting these NGOs, but it could try and pressure groups internally affiliated with them.
Saudi Arabia could also buy Russian arms. Riyadh is wholly reliant upon British and American weapons, and as tension with Washington builds it may naturally be looking for an alternative arms supplier. But switching to Russian armaments would require a complete overhaul of the U.S.-and British-outfitted Saudi military, something that would take years.
In any case, such carrots are not enough for Putin to back off his plans to build an alliance with the Bush administration. Following the meeting with Faisal in Moscow April 18, Putin noted that Russia was concerned with the situation in the Middle East. He then went on to point out the lack of economic interaction between Saudi Arabia and Russia, the Russian news agency ITAR-TASS reported. Putin's remarks about the dearth of trade were a not-so-subtle hint that Moscow might sell some influence, but that otherwise Riyadh was getting nothing.
Failing to build broad-based coalitions on both the local and global scale will leave the desert kingdom seeking a third alternative. Having exhausted all other potential allies, Riyadh may find itself appealing to the two nations directly threatened by a U.S. attack on Baghdad: Iraq and Iran.
It all sounds to me that the complete alliance between the US and Russia that I've been advocating may well happen. Don't you just bet the Chinese and the EU are loving every minute of this? This new partnership should be just what the world needs to get rid of the UN as well. Between the US and Russia, I'd say that there's a new Sheriff in town - and he's got a real dislike for Islam.... ROFLMAO.
All your oil are belong to us, A-Rab.
Mecca, Iraq, West Bank...
We'll call it the 'Hashemite Option'.
Dan 8:9
The long game, of course, is an anti-Chinese entente between the U.S. and Russia: Russia has a vulnerable border with the Chicoms, the U.S. is concerned about the growth of Chinese seapower. That will be part of the outcome of this war. Be Seeing You,
Chris
I love Bush and Putin! They will be known as the great LEADERS of the free world that defeated the evil muslim empire!
Interesting article, but the fact that it does not mention the word "oil" makes it suspect, IMO. Saudi Arabians, and Chavez' man Ali Rodriquez, have been hustling to Moscow for months to get them to drop their market share strategy and agree to oil output limits. The price of oil is high now because of the Venezuela situation and the Iraqi/Iranian promoted increase in Intifada violence, peppered with insincere market scare tactics about "embargoes."
I wonder when the Saudi flew to Russia - was it pre-planned? Because Putin announced that Russia would peg its budget on a lower expected oil price - $16.50 per bbl. Saudi must be scared since it can only profit with a bbl price of over $22.00 or so.
I'll post you the Russian info later.
--- click ---
Why would the Russians help Saudi monarchists, these are the two big oil states, they are competitors. Which do Russians need, US food and everything we have, or Saudi sand?
Of any 2 nations on earth, the Saudi and Russian ought to be opposed to each other...
The most ironic part of this may well be that if Presidents Bush and Putin pull this new alliance off, the real losers in this country will be the Democrats. The American Communists will have been defeated by their former mentor nation - a nation that is now much further to the right than our own political system. Gotta love it.
May she not fall again into temptation, and may she return to holiness in our days.
Let the Saudis eat their oil!
Debka are loons. Stratfor on this subject, and the Middle East in general, should be considered the agent of a certain unfriendly non-governmental organization.
Stratfor is effectively a propaganda arm of Pakistan's Inter-Service Intelligence here. And the ISI is a partner of Al Qaeda.
The entire jist of the article is that Russia will not be helping Saudi Arabia one bit.
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