Just how vulnerable is Taiwan [to China]?

Taipei Times ^ | 16 April, 2002 | Sushil Seth

[batter]

I particularily liked the distinciton the author made between the Clinton and Bush administrations.
I thought this was a pretty good article, especially about the PRC's opportunities for political manipulation in Taiwan. I guess they were applying the same tactics in the US with Clinton/Gore.

[batter]

Idexing and FYI.

[cicero's_son]

What happens if we sell Taiwan our most advanced weaponry and it passes "peacefully" into Chinese possession?

[FreedominJesusChrist]

I do not believe that would happen. It is in the best interest of Taiwan to be able to defend themselves against any possible invasion by China. The people in Taiwan consider themselves to be Taiwanesse and not Chinese. To the best of my knowledge they do not even speak Mandarin.

[mconder]

China simply can't be ignored.

Sure it can...stop buying imported crap from them...NOW!

[ScreamingFist]

"The people in Taiwan consider themselves to be Taiwanesse and not Chinese"

I never met a single person in Taiwan that didn't have relatives in China.

[cicero's_son]

Here's a frightening scenario for you:

1) We sell Taiwan the Aegis class destroyers as well as other advanced weaponry. The Chinese, naturally, object most strenuously.

2) A few years later (after China has beefed up her blue water navy and stage a few wargames off the Taiwanese coast), the two sides agree to UN-sponsored talks aimed at creating a "Peace Process" for eventual reunification.

3) Ownership of the new US weaponry at last provides the Taiwanese with the hand they need to secure concessions from the Chinese Communists. Taiwan will retain a higher degree of autonomy than even Hong Kong, including a separate constitution and (nominally) independent military and political institutions. Taiwanese companies will be guaranteed long term access to the Chinese labor and consumer markets. In exchange, China gets access to some of the little remaining US military secrets she hasn't already stolen.

There are many reasons for our policy of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan. If need be, we can protect Taiwan adequately while retaining ownership and control of our most advanced hardware.

[FreedominJesusChrist]

Yeah, my dad has relatives living in Germany, but he calls himself American and not German.

[FreedominJesusChrist]

Interesting thoughts, I see what you are saying. That is probably why Congress has not agreed to sell this advanced technology to Taiwan.

[batter]

As usuall, geopolitics involves a major balancing act. 'CS' raises a valid point of concern. The US doesn't want to loose it's sophisticated weaponry to a Taiwan takeover (peaceful or otherwise) but also wants a Taiwan strong enough to fend off an attack. I suppose the US would rather have a Taiwan that can hold China off long enough for the US to arrive with the 'serious' weaponry in the event of an attack. Taiwanese currently aren't interested in uniting with China, and probably won't be until the time China would even be considered a non-threat or even an ally to the US. Nevertheless, you don't see the US giving away its most sophisticated weapons to our allies...but then again, Clinton's gang were pretty good at giving nuke secrets to the PRC for free - and they weren't an ally!

[borghead]

From the looks of it, economic integration is already happening, so political integration can't be far away, the best solution would be some sort of peaceful confederation where Taiwan gets to keep its democratic government as long as it pays taxes to china. But there are many people in China who believe that the U.S will use Taiwan as an excuse to start a war with china, this may actually be true.

[cicero's_son]

"I suppose the US would rather have a Taiwan that can hold China off long enough for the US to arrive with the 'serious' weaponry in the event of an attack."

I have tremendous faith in Taiwan's ability to defend itself from such an attack. The ROC army is the IDF of East Asia.

And China knows it.

[ScreamingFist]

"my dad has relatives living in Germany, but he calls himself American and not German."

Errr right. And we here in the US don't have a problem with Americans defecting in military jets back to Germany, unlike Taiwan.

[FreedominJesusChrist]

I have never heard of this happening before. I find it crazy to believe that one would wish to escape back to Communism.

[borghead]

yeah, right, is that why the KMT lost control of the mainland to china? The IDF won every war it has ever fought, Taiwan needs the 9th fleet as a bailout every time the situation gets tense.

[ScreamingFist]

"I have never heard of this happening before. I find it crazy to believe that one would wish to escape back to Communism"

Snip

Fung claimed that the front-page report in the Taipei-based China Times daily relied on information that "intelligence agencies" leaked on purpose prior to the year-end legislative elections.

He feared that the reports could mislead the public and damage morale.

However, Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Trong Chai said in a news release that he had been informed by the "national security system" as early as May that a number of retired ROC military officers are working for the PLA.

Chai added that some of the officers are serving as PLA advisers or military academy instructors, while others have joined hands with elements of organized crime to collect military secrets and blueprints of military installations from Taiwan to be sold in mainland China.

[GOP_1900AD]

An huge error on the part of the Taiwanese has been to look to the PRC as their sole cheap "offshore" manufacturing location. They have nothing to blame but their mindset. Even though other low cost areas, such as SE Asia and India, could have been used, the Taiwanese refused to consider these. It is said that there are two mutually incompatible Far East supply chains - the Singapore - SE Asia one, and the Taiwan - Greater China one, something about the relative comfort zones of Singapore vs. Taiwan. Most Taiwanese industrialists are KMT and either descended from Chinese colonists or from the more recent wave fleeing Communism. They have a dumb sentimentalism about their old "home towns" back on the mainland and seek to build factories there. They think that they are masters of Guangxi and can use their supposed mastery to hold greater influence on the mainland than they could hold in other countries. And now, we see the geopolitical consequences of this foolish cronyism. Too bad for Taiwan, too bad for the US. It did not have to be this way.

[The Energizer]

Mandarin is the language of Taiwan.

[cicero's_son]

Bump.

This is the danger.