Posted on 04/16/2002 11:55:27 AM PDT by batter
Taiwan is no longer a passive element in US strategy. That, at least, seems to be the message behind the recent visit to the US by Minister of National Defense Tang Yao-ming (´öÂ`©ú). It wasn't a hush-hush affair, as Tang met high-level officials of the US defense department. And Taipei is being encouraged to speed up its defense modernization. In other words, the US is no longer squeamish about weapons sales to Taiwan.
This is in sharp contrast to the defensive posture of the administration of former US president Bill Clinton, which tried hard to mollify Beijing on the Taiwan ques-tion. In fact, it used considerable political pressure on Taipei to avoid offending China. Only dur-ing the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, during Taiwan's first presidential election, did the Clinton administration assert itself against China by sending in two warships as a deterrence against an actual Chinese invasion.
That crisis was manufactured by China to test the limits of US resolve on Taiwan. In the event, it didn't falter and Beijing scaled down its brinkmanship. But its missiles are still targeted at Tai-wan in increasing numbers. The difference between now and then is that the administration of US President George W. Bush has left no room for ambiguity about its commitment to defend Taiwan under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.
Bush has said that the US would "do whatever it takes to defend Taiwan." And the recently leaked Nuclear Posture Review would suggest Taiwan's inclusion under the US missile defense umbrella, incorporating the possible use of nuclear weapons in a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait. The review lists China among seven states as possible US nuclear targets. Taiwan is now part of such a contingent situation.
The question is: why has Bei-jing not reacted as wildly as it did in 1995 and 1996, following former president Lee Teng-hui's (§õµn½÷) private US visit and Taiwan's presidential election? At that time it created a dangerous military crisis. Obviously, this has much to do with the Bush administration's firm commitment. But it doesn't mean that Beijing will simply accept the new US dictum. It will bide its time for opportunities.
There is a sense in China that the future is on its side. Its size, its population, the growth of its eco-nomy, diplomatic weight and military might will all combine in due course to "tilt the balance of power in Beijing's favor." In the meantime, the US will need China's cooperation in its global anti-terrorism campaign and to help enforce nuclear non-proliferation. China simply can't be ignored. As for Taiwan, where there is scope for military con-flict, Beijing will seek to avoid it through political means.
China takes a long-term view. While Beijing would like to exercise global power and play a role on par with that of the US, it isn't willing to force the issue right now. It can wait because these things will happen in any case over a period of time. While the power and reach of the US is real and scary, Beijing seems to regard it as an impatient and impulsive giant bound to trip up sooner or later. It might be over-extending and over-reaching itself all over the place. And if China simply maintains its steady pace and treads carefully, it might emerge as the ultimate winner and the new Middle Kingdom.
But there are major qualifications to this view.
Firstly, a presumption that the communist monopoly of power at home will remain constant throughout the foreseeable future is implicit in this view. A stable China, under communist rule, is therefore a prerequisite. In other words, the Communist Party and the nation are indistinguishable. To take this for granted, however, is clearly a tall order, given growing social and political tensions in the country.
Second, economic growth is very uneven, creating wide regional gaps (between coastal and interior areas), a growing urban-rural divide and serious income disparities. Unemployment is also a worry and is expected to get worse with the introduction of the WTO regime over the next five years. Corruption is rife, with the political elite involved at all levels.
Against this backdrop, it is a bit rich for the party to see the nation in its own image. And if it continues to do so, it will simply undermine China's future. There is an urgent need for the political system to open up to accommodate participatory democracy. But there is no sign of this happening and the Communist Party appears determined to monopolize power for now and forever.
All this is little consolation to Taiwan, however. Despite the US security umbrella, Taiwan remains vulnerable. With its increasingly fractious polity it is now, more than ever, susceptible to political manipulation by Beijing. It has already done its bit to exacerbate divisions in the KMT. With the net now cast wide, Beijing can afford to fish deeper in Taiwan's troubled political waters. At the same time, Taiwan's economy is not doing brilliantly. And to its commercial sector, economic integration with China appears to be the most sustainable answer.
China's cheap production costs lend a competitive edge internationally. Cultural homogeneity is an important advantage in inter-personal relations. China's domestic market and investment avenues seem limitless. And, on the surface at least, there is political stability and a compliant labor force under party control. No wonder Taiwan's companies are so enthusiastic about economic opportunities in China.
In such a political and economic climate, Beijing has some leeway to subvert Taiwan internally. This is neither imminent nor inevitable, but one cannot help noticing the opportunities for Beijing.
For that reason, the US commitment to defend Taiwan notwithstanding, Taipei must do a lot of homework to neutralize negative internal political and economic factors if it is to maintain its political identity.
Sushil Seth is a freelance writer based in Sydney, Australia.
Sure it can...stop buying imported crap from them...NOW!
I never met a single person in Taiwan that didn't have relatives in China.
1) We sell Taiwan the Aegis class destroyers as well as other advanced weaponry. The Chinese, naturally, object most strenuously.
2) A few years later (after China has beefed up her blue water navy and stage a few wargames off the Taiwanese coast), the two sides agree to UN-sponsored talks aimed at creating a "Peace Process" for eventual reunification.
3) Ownership of the new US weaponry at last provides the Taiwanese with the hand they need to secure concessions from the Chinese Communists. Taiwan will retain a higher degree of autonomy than even Hong Kong, including a separate constitution and (nominally) independent military and political institutions. Taiwanese companies will be guaranteed long term access to the Chinese labor and consumer markets. In exchange, China gets access to some of the little remaining US military secrets she hasn't already stolen.
There are many reasons for our policy of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan. If need be, we can protect Taiwan adequately while retaining ownership and control of our most advanced hardware.
I have tremendous faith in Taiwan's ability to defend itself from such an attack. The ROC army is the IDF of East Asia.
And China knows it.
Errr right. And we here in the US don't have a problem with Americans defecting in military jets back to Germany, unlike Taiwan.
Snip
Fung claimed that the front-page report in the Taipei-based China Times daily relied on information that "intelligence agencies" leaked on purpose prior to the year-end legislative elections.
He feared that the reports could mislead the public and damage morale.
However, Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Trong Chai said in a news release that he had been informed by the "national security system" as early as May that a number of retired ROC military officers are working for the PLA.
Chai added that some of the officers are serving as PLA advisers or military academy instructors, while others have joined hands with elements of organized crime to collect military secrets and blueprints of military installations from Taiwan to be sold in mainland China.
This is the danger.
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