[Full Text] Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe's aging autocrat, hates being compared to Nelson Mandela, the retired leader of South Africa. Perhaps that's because such comparisons are unfailingly unflattering to Mugabe.
Mandela was the victim of a campaign of vicious persecution by South Africa's racist government, which kept him imprisoned for 27 years for the crime of seeking equality for black South Africans. But when he was finally released, Mandela sloughed off bitterness and resentment, embraced his former tormentors and became the visionary leader of South Africa's first democratically elected government in 1994. After five years in office, he retired, allowing a peaceful transition of power.
Mugabe was also the victim of a campaign of vicious persecution by the racist government of then-Rhodesia, which kept him imprisoned for 10 years for the crime of seeking equality for his fellow black citizens. When he was finally released, he initially led a government of reconciliation, encouraging white farmers and business executives to stay and help bring prosperity to the new country of Zimbabwe.
But 20 years later, Mugabe is a bitter tyrant, clinging to power by bashing whites, seizing white-owned farms in a violent campaign of intimidation, imprisoning journalists and other critics and generally running his once-promising country into the ground. He has become the anti-Mandela.
This may sound like so many other depressing tales of post-colonial Africa, in which black leaders have ruined their countries through decades of tyranny and corruption. But there is still hope that this story may have a happy ending: On March 9-10, national elections will be held. Though Mugabe has done everything possible to prevent free and fair voting -- including accusing his opponent, Morgan Tsvangirai, of treason and sending thugs into the countryside to intimidate voters -- it is still possible that Tsvangirai will win.
If he does, he will need truckloads of Western help. Inflation has hit 117 percent, and unemployment is above 60 percent. Because so many white farmers have fled the country, agricultural production has dropped and famine is possible.
But Zimbabwe boasts a reliable work force; natural resources, including popular wildlife preserves; an independent judiciary; and a relatively low crime rate. With a little help, the country could return to the prosperity it enjoyed in the 1990s.
Former U.N. Ambassador Andrew Young argues that Zimbabwe will return to prosperity even if Mugabe wins. While insisting that he does not support Mugabe, Young nevertheless clings to a narrow justification of Mugabe's seizure of white-owned farms.
"The problem is not Mugabe. The problem is that one percent of the people own 70 percent of the land," Young said recently, underscoring the inequitable distribution of wealth that has not been resolved by 20 years of black rule.
Acknowledging that his defense of Mugabe -- even if half-hearted -- has earned him widespread criticism from the human rights community, Young harkened back to his own role in negotiating the peace accord that ended white rule in the former Rhodesia in 1980.
"I guess I feel responsible, because I convinced Mugabe that he didn't have to deal with land reform right then," he said. But Western countries, including the United States, never came forward with the money for land redistribution that they promised, Young said.
Nevertheless, even Young admits that Mugabe should step down.
Should Mugabe win, his victory will likely have been purchased through repression and manipulation. Those who have provided him political cover, including Young and several southern African leaders, ought to feel obligated to negotiate a face-saving exit for him. Perhaps another aging tyrant -- Malaysia's Mahathir Mohamad, with whom Mugabe enjoys a close friendship -- will find a nice little retirement villa for him.
Zimbabwe is salvageable now. But its promise would wither under another decade of Mugabe's misrule.
Obviously there is a great urgency here. :-)
Actually, delay is in the interest of the opposition. The parties are under a great deal of pressure to legitimize the election and paper over the thuggery and fraud in the interest of advancing NEPAD.
This pressure threatens to co-opt Tsvangirai.
He has no grasp of the facts, but facts would interfere with his pre-determined agenda that it is all about race and the evils of colonialism.