The trick is, to know when the war is coming ahead of time. Or start one, profitting from your knowledge ahead of time.
You're partially right. Storage will partially account for a price rise. Larger increases are due to several factors.
A. Ever since January, when the first good economic news started to come out and steadily looked better, the following began to occur: increases in manufacturing, chemical, fertilizer, metal production and housing construction and travel as spring approached, significantly increased power and fuel usage.
B. The last four weeks have had historicaly high heating value days, significantly lowering natural gas and heating oil in storage.
C. The last years low prices have slowed drilling to the extent that US supplies will not meet demand if we see a huge economic recovery and a hot summer, as far as natural gas goes. If there isn't enough natural gas, pressure on crude prices goes up, as heating oil, diesel, etc., are made from crude.
D. Several other economies around the world are also recovering which is the same as #1. above.
Sorry to be so long, but thats part of it in a nutshell. Conspiracy, this is not. Every country around the world is subject to the above factors, to varying degrees. Its only natural that prices will rise due to the uncertainty that war brings, particularly in the Middle East.
There is also plenty of gold in the world. Take a look at the charts on the price of gold and tell me this is also part of the Intifada conspiracy.