You're partially right. Storage will partially account for a price rise. Larger increases are due to several factors.
A. Ever since January, when the first good economic news started to come out and steadily looked better, the following began to occur: increases in manufacturing, chemical, fertilizer, metal production and housing construction and travel as spring approached, significantly increased power and fuel usage.
B. The last four weeks have had historicaly high heating value days, significantly lowering natural gas and heating oil in storage.
C. The last years low prices have slowed drilling to the extent that US supplies will not meet demand if we see a huge economic recovery and a hot summer, as far as natural gas goes. If there isn't enough natural gas, pressure on crude prices goes up, as heating oil, diesel, etc., are made from crude.
D. Several other economies around the world are also recovering which is the same as #1. above.
Sorry to be so long, but thats part of it in a nutshell. Conspiracy, this is not. Every country around the world is subject to the above factors, to varying degrees. Its only natural that prices will rise due to the uncertainty that war brings, particularly in the Middle East.
There is also plenty of gold in the world. Take a look at the charts on the price of gold and tell me this is also part of the Intifada conspiracy.
You point out various price fluctuation reasons. Assume true. Is that the explanation of all the increase? What I read is the recent upsurge came from panic about the intifada. Then Saddam urged and oil boycott. Then Iran. When markets calmed yesterday, Iran tried out a "one month" boycott.
I watched Fox, et al. All had alarmist stories about a supposed embargo. Price rises ensued in a panic, or mini-panic.
Conspiracy? OPEC is a "conspiracy". It's a cartel. There's plenty of unused capacity in the world, and I see from all this Russia gaining more from its market share strategy than it had anticipated before.
I gave my ideas for discussion. Yet, assume the increase in violence in the Intifada (let me be clear - the recent increase in terror, not the "Intifada" as a whole) may have had elements of deflecting attention from Iraq and Iran, or they joined on the wagon and pushed it faster. Surely an advisor of Saddam could have mentioned to him, all other facts aside, if you threaten an embargo, you will profit.
You mention seasonal concerns. But these surely were anticipated, and calibrated with the well publicized oil reductions announced by OPEC a month ago. And now the market has more oil than anticipated.