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To: TigerLikesRooster
"The Fed must be watching with horror at the financial nightmare in Japan. They could be looking at the very same scenario here in the U.S., which is why they may consider monetizing the entire financial system."

I've been reading about how our economy will follow Japan's economy into the tank for at least 12 years now. You see, dire alarmist predictions sell more newsletters than the reasonable forecasts made by experienced economists. There are a number of major differences between the American economy and the Japaneese economy. One of the biggest differences is that America has a huge home building industry and a lot of empty land where we can build new homes. This home building industry, along with the auto industry, can be cranked up rapidly by the Fed simply by cutting interest rates. This is how the Fed prevents recessions from turning into depressions. Japan, however, doesn't have any vacant land where they can build new houses. Their real estate is completely developed. There's no place to put any more houses. Therefore Japan has a lack of industries that can be stimulated by lower interest rates. In addition, the Japaneese people have a very high savings rate (around 20%) and so they have less need to borrow to make any kind of purchase. America has a low savings rate, therefore consumer spending is stimulated greatly by lower interest rates. Finally, Japan has a strict population control policy and has essentially no population growth, which greatly reduces their long-term economic growth. China is now the engine of economic growth in Asia and it's economy will be bigger than Japan's in a few years. In a nutshell, Japan's economy is already maxed out because of limits on real estate development and population growth. America has neither of those limits and we will continue to grow steadily in the years ahead. Much of the rise in gold prices is simply a trading rally in the commodities market. This rally will probably lose steam around $300 as long as inflation remains reasonably low. People have been predicting a big jump in gold prices for 15 years and it's not going to happen without a jump in inflation.

6 posted on 03/25/2002 5:00:07 PM PST by defenderSD
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To: defenderSD
You have a charming faith in the reports about "The housing industry." Did you know that new housing starts dropped 17% in January, and a like number in February?

What's that? You were told they increased 17%?

Welcome to the world of "seasonal adjustments," pal. If you believe these clintonian numbers, fine--knock yourself out and "buy the dips." Just don't mislead the more trusting readers here into thinking a stock market with declining profits and 40+ price to earnings is a great investing opportunity.

21 posted on 03/25/2002 6:38:48 PM PST by hinckley buzzard
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