Six Months Of Stunning Polls

Hotline Scoop ^ | 3/6/2002 | Howard Mortman

[Utah Girl]

ext week's six-month anniversary of Sept. 11 surely will bring many media stories with many different angles.

Bush's numbers are strong coast-to-coast, not just in New York City.

Here's one story idea: President Bush's amazing poll numbers.

Why are Bush's approval numbers still so good, and why have they stayed so good for so long?

Ask Matthew Dowd, Bush's pollster and the senior adviser to the Republican National Committee.

"People said they would fall off like his father after Desert Storm, or fall off like President [Lyndon B.] Johnson after Vietnam," Dowd tells me.

But they didn't. It's because, as Dowd explains about Bush's handling of Sept. 11, "People saw it as a domestic crisis as well. They saw it as a president who handled a foreign crisis well and a domestic crisis well."

Dowd points to the pre-Sept. 11 doubts people had of Bush: Was he up to the job? Could he handle a foreign crisis? On Election Day, 42 percent of the public, according to a Gallup poll Dowd cites, was worried about Bush's handling of a world crisis. "His father didn't have that problem," Dowd said. "So Bush's fundamental weakness was how he'd perform. Because he handled the crisis so well, that dispelled the doubt.... He solved a weakness.... That won't be a doubt anymore because he did it."

Dowd notes the rationale behind what's happening in Afghanistan: "People understand why. That wasn't the case for the Persian Gulf war. [Now] they have a much understanding of why we did what we did."

Making a point about how unprecedented the president's soaring poll numbers are, Dowd points to two yardsticks:

1) How long did the president stay within five points of his high point?
2) How long did it take the president to get back to where he was?

Here's where the numbers make the case. In a Gallup poll conducted Sept. 7-10, 51 percent of the people surveyed said they approved of the way Bush was handling his job as president. Since then, according to Gallup survey data, Bush has ridden spectacular highs:

• Sept. 14-15: 86 percent job approval
• Sept. 21-22 (right after Bush's speech to Congress): 90 percent job approval
• Oct. 5-6: 87 percent job approval
• Oct. 11-14: 89 percent job approval
• Oct. 19-21: 88 percent job approval
• Nov. 8-11: 87 percent job approval
• Nov. 26-27: 87 percent job approval
• Dec. 5-9: 86 percent job approval
• Dec. 14-16: 86 percent job approval
• Jan. 7-9: 84 percent job approval
• Jan. 25-27: 84 percent job approval
• Feb. 4-6: 82 percent job approval

That's 17 weeks at his high point, longer than LBJ in 1964 and FDR in 1942. (Remarkably, Bush's numbers are strong coast-to-coast, not just in New York City.) Meanwhile, Bush is still well above his pre-September numbers. His father, by the way, was back down six months after his Desert Storm high and had negative ratings on the economy.

The numbers suggest all doubt has been erased about his ability to handle foreign policy.

Those economic numbers are critical, too. Bush Sr.'s economic downturn occurred throughout much of his presidency. Contrast that with his son, who still has positive ratings on the economy and ranks well down on the list of blame for the economy.

This doesn't necessarily mean a universally rosy poll picture for Republicans, however. One thing to look for is whether Bush's stellar numbers rub off on others. Here's a case where they don't. According to last week's Boston Herald poll, the popularity and job approval ratings for Massachusetts Acting Gov. Jane Swift (R), which "soared after Sept. 11, have now steadily dropped to just above her December 2000 political lowpoint."

Still, Bush's polling numbers have remained sky-high. Look at these foreign policy approval numbers: 81 percent on Oct. 5-6, 83 percent on Jan. 25-27 and 79 percent on Feb. 4-6. Those numbers suggest all doubt has been erased about his ability to handle foreign policy. Meanwhile, according to Gallup, people have more confidence in Bush handling the economy than they have in congressional Democrats handling it -- by 20 percentage points. That does not portend well for Democrats, lacking much ammunition, to make the economy a wedge issue for Campaign 2002.

According to Newsweek, Bush tells advisers: "I don't care about the polls."

No wonder. He shouldn't, not since Sept. 11.

[Utah Girl]

Great news!

[Consort]

Maybe the general public feels a little guilty about dumping his father, GHW Bush, who was a war hero in and out of uniform. By voting Bush (41) out of office, they inflicted the nation with Bill Clinton for eight scandal-filled years and the degradation of the Presidency.

It's going to take time to undo the harm that the Clintons have done, and continue to do, to our country.

[summer]

bttt

[Jen]

Freepathon Hypnosis

You are falling through outer space,
Your eyes are getting very heavy,
You feel yourself floating.
When I count backwards from 10
You will be under my control.

10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1

Send FR $500.00! Or whatever amount you can...

Click here!

[uncbob]

His father's were sky high during the Gulf War and guess who won in 92

[Utah Girl]

Yes, you are right. But former President Bush's polls only stayed at 91% for a couple of months, and then declined sharply quickly because of the economy. President Bush learned a lesson from his father, and won't be repeating the same mistakes his dad made.

[uncbob]

Maybe the general public feels a little guilty about dumping his father, GHW Bush, who was a war hero in and out of uniform.

Well the first time Clinton only got as much as Carter Dukacis and Mondale in their landslide defeats. Those that abandonned his father went for Perot not Clinton.

[VRWC_minion]

His father's were sky high during the Gulf War and guess who won in 92

The one who didn't raise taxes and promised a tax cut ?

[uncbob]

President Bush learned a lesson from his father, and won't be repeating the same mistakes his dad made.

He already has by trusting Dashcle and the other lying democrats

[Utah Girl]

Well, let's wait and see. President Bush doesn't trust little lying Tommy Daschle at all. And that has become pretty apparent over the past few days. The recess of Congress is in 10 days, let's see how many recess appointments President Bush makes.

[Miss Marple]

Boy, you are living in the alternate universe. You thinnk he TRUSTS Daschle? Hahahahaha!!

He gives Daschle a chance to do the right thing, but he doesn't trust him an inch!

[floriduh voter]

Dubya told Dashall from the get go "Don't lie to me." That's why Dash does all the impromptu press conferences in which is not technically lying, but is Jeckle and Hyde like and turning the nation against him as a little minion. He's losing respect, not garnering any.

[willyone]

While I like GW and am totally behind him with the war effort I will not support him for re election due to his stand on the illegals. That and his speaking Spanish will only deepen the differences and hurry the demise of the US as a nation. Already in Texas the Mexican that spoke English in the debate is being attacked for not being Mexican enough. We don't need this shit.

[Lorena]

Wonderful news! Thanks for the ping.

[Consort]

The conservatives abondoned Bush (41) because of "read my lips". That lack of support gave the election to Clinton (Perot provided the necessary diversion to help Bubba). Once again, principle got in the way of winning and when you're a runner-up (as in loser), principle ain't worth a damn.

[Howlin]

So you're voting for a Democrat? Good to know.

[Constitutional_Republican]

I agree 100%. The amnesty issue that the president keeps returning too will end my support. It is just too important an issue for the future of this republic.