Simon catapults over Riordan in poll ... Stunning rebound for businessman

S.F. Chronicle ^ | February 27, 2002 | Carla Marinucci, Chronicle Political Writer

[Gophack]

GOP gubernatorial candidate Bill Simon -- just two months ago a mere footnote in the polls -- has, for the first time, charged ahead of former front-runner Richard Riordan among likely GOP primary voters, a Field poll shows.

With just under a week to the March 5 primary, the poll shows Simon with the support of 37 percent of likely Republican voters to 31 percent for Riordan -- a stunning surge from last month, when Simon was 33 percentage points behind the former Los Angeles mayor. Secretary of State Bill Jones polled just 9 percent support while about 23 percent of the likely Republican voters surveyed were undecided.

[sgaspar]

I think that news of Simon's lead over Riordan is not good for the California Republican Party. That is, I agree (for the first time on anything) with Gray Davis that Davis's real threat to re-election comes from Riordan, not Simon. That's why Davis is campaigning against Riordan (and, notably, not against Simon) in the primaries. And that is why the liberal press in California is giddy with reporting the news of Simon's lead.

Did you not read the story? Simon leads Davis in a hypothetical matchup 44-42, Riordan leads Davis 46-40. The difference between the two numbers is insignificant.

How is Simon bad for the California GOP? ... Because he is a conservative who can win? Simon is the stronger opponent against Davis because he offers the voters a clear contrast on the major isuues. If you would prefer to have a governor who is more liberal than Davis, vote for Riordan. If you want a conservative governor vote for Simon, the only conservative in the race.

Simon has the momentum, he's shot up in the polls from the single digits to overcome a 35 point Riordan lead. Clearly Simon is capable of winning.

[Gophack]

Riordan winning would cause many to stay home in November and kill the entire ticket. He is political poison and will not appeal to many on the left or the middle. When given the choice between a leftist Democrat pretending to be a moderate like Gray Davis and a leftist Republican boasting about his leftist credentials, the voters will go to the Democrat. Leftists trump neo-leftists. (See Dianne Feinstein vs Tom Campbell 2000)

Right on!

Go Simon!

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

That's why Davis is campaigning against Riordan (and, notably, not against Simon) in the primaries. And that is why the liberal press in California is giddy with reporting the news of Simon's lead.

The reason Davis is campaigning against Riordan is because his ads were all paid for and created BEFORE anyone not on Free Republic thought that Simon had a chance. Recent spin to the contrary notwithstanding Davis motive was to soften Riordan up for November, not to defeat him in March.

The press is giddy because this is a good story. They aren't endorsing him now, and this fall (and spring and summer) they will attack Simon like they did GWB in 2000. The election in November will be a referendum on Davis' performance, and he simply can't win such a vote.

[glennaro]

Your points are well constructed and worthy of considerable reflection. More of a pragmatist than an idealist, I simply want Davis defeated in November, and I think that, at least for now, Riordan's moderate positions would appeal to more voters who will not participate in the primary election (e.g., "independents") but who will vote in the general election.

[Redcloak]

I don't know that that's necessarily true, but this is a race where a lot of people are voting "against" someone. Many Jones supporters may not be "pro-Jones" so much as "anti-Riordan". Polling like this may well collapse them into the Simon camp as the best way to defeat Riordan.

[eno_]

The blood is in the water. Attack! Attack!

Riordan is already hopelessly damaged goods for having fallen behind Simon this early. There is no way to argue that Riordan has a better chance in the general election any longer. I LIKE IT.

[Gophack]

I think that Davis wanted to run against Riordan and didn't expect him to lose the primary. He wanted to soften him up so that he was weak on March 6th. Then, when they saw how Simon had positioned himself to be the alternative to Riordan, they said, "Yeah, that's what we planned on doing."

Riordan is far more vulnerable to Davis than Simon is. Riordan has more baggage, more flip-flops, and a huge record that will not appeal to conservatives (social issues, fiscal issues) or liberals (DWP price-gouging, flip-flops)

Simon offers a clear contrast with Davis, and MOST IMPORTANTLY, gives voters someone to VOTE FOR, not just VOTE AGAINST Davis. This is very important. Simon is a sincere, honest, warm, compassionate man that Davis will have a hard time wrapping the right-wing extremist label on. How can you be a right-wing extremist when you give not only your money BUT YOUR TIME to underprivledged children and teens? Simon has a long standing record of volunteering his time with these kids, long before he ever decided to run for governor.

Davis might be SAYING he wants to run against Simon, but I think they never believed Riordan could lose until 2-3 weeks ago. They are just saving face. Also, they are biased in that they think just because someone is pro-life they will lose. Sorry, Gray. Most people don't vote on the abortion issue. And people really DO want you to justify your fiscal mismanagement of the state. You can't avoid answering.

Go Simon!

[Redcloak]

The reason Davis is campaigning against Riordan is because his ads were all paid for and created BEFORE anyone not on Free Republic thought that Simon had a chance.

Correct. The ads were test shots against what the Davis camp saw as their likely opponent. That they happened to trick slick Dickie into blasting the base was an added benefit.

(I thought in the past that the ads were a deliberate strategy on Davis' part; an attempt to provoke a response from Riordan that would drive a wedge between him and the base. But, that may have been only a happy accident.)

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

appeal to more voters who will not participate in the primary election (e.g., "independents") but who will vote in the general election.

I know of no political philosophy that believes in spending a multi-billion dollar surplus to buy electricity at the highest price it ever reached, then raise taxes to cover the tax shortfall partially caused by his ineptitude. Just what sort of philosophy would treat these transactions as a good?

[Technocrat]

Time to Simonize my parents, who live in the Central Valley..

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

But, that may have been only a happy accident.

I have known a number of political consultants in the days before they became rich professionals. The image they like to present as machine-like infallible prognosticators is only an image. Since they work out of California, home of the Hollywood image and PR spin, they are better at lying about their skills, but they are just human beings, let me clue you in.

[Gophack]

Time to Simonize my parents, who live in the Central Valley..

Good luck!

[Technocrat]

Simonization complete :)

[glennaro]

I know of no political philosophy such that you describe, and that's not my point.

I think the source of the disagreement with what I am saying in this thread is over what will be in the minds of the majority of voters in California's general election: The need for effective fiscal performance, etc. or fear of conservative positions in general. Liberals have been quite successful in California in playing to these fears and that gives me pause before celebrating Simon's achievement.

[Antoninus]

Memo to Bill Jones:

For the good of the party, please step aside now. If you make such a gracious move now, you'll be a prime candidate for US Senate in the near future. If by staying in the race, you allow Dick Rear-dan to win the nomination, you will become persona non grata as far as most of us on Free Republic are concerned.

[freedomcrusader]

Middle-of-the-road kill alert!

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

Liberals have been quite successful in California in playing to these fears and that gives me pause before celebrating Simon's achievement.

This is because the liberals have been on the attack. Davis is the only Democrat governor of California not named Brown since WWII. A reelection campaign is always fought on the basis of the incumbents record, assuming the challenger has enough money. Simon has enough money. As has been pointed out here, Simon is essentially undemonizable, the only possible attack is against his religion. I don't think that will go down too well with the Hispanics, do you?

[Antoninus]

Defeatism is such an ugly thing. Try being a little optimistic. We're on the cusp of a victory here. Stop focusing on the negative and help out, will you?

[glennaro]

I don't understand your point. The last thing I am is "defeatist". I want the Republican Party to prevail in November's elections as much as anyone here does. We may disagree on how better to achieve that goal, but I ask you to reconsider that anyone who disagrees with your position or your choice of our candidate is "defeatist" and "ugly" and "negative".

[RightOnTheLeftCoast]

Wonderful, and entirely understandable news. Now let's work on turnout! November will be a cakewalk if Simon wins next week.

As to his "negatives":

1) "Spotty" voting record. Well, mea freaking culpa. Give me a candidate worth voting for, GOP, and I'll manage to drag myself to the polls. Through our uninspiring warmed-over DemocRat-wannabe Socialism Lite nominees, we've convinced our base to stay home over and over. About time we have a Reaganesque outsider ride to our rescue. And just in time: the DemocRats have made a major hash out of the state. Rolling blackouts, crumbling roads, an imminent water crisis, record-high taxation, a slumping economy, intrusive regulation, lousy schools, "Cootie Shots", Islamic indoctrination for middle schoolers... this is not exactly a winning record for the DemocRats. Meanwhile: of all the recent Republican nominees for high office here in California, the one that did the best--came closest to winning--was stolidly conservative Herschensohn. Think about that. Only an eleventh-hour smear campaign based on his taste for the occasional drink at a nudie bar gave us Barbara Boxer. So the notion that moderation is the key to winning in California is a total canard. Conservatives energize the base, and bring people like me--and people like Bill Simon--to the polls. And no conservative in recent memory has the incandescent attractiveness that Bill Simon brings us.

2) "Business failures". Well guess what, kiddos: the man's a venture capitalist. This is a sophisticated breed of gambler--vital to America's economy, record of innovation and unparalleled way of life--who invests immense amounts of high-risk capital in a dozen ventures at a time on the bet that one might pay off handsomely. So let's talk about those ventures he's been involved in that have paid off handsomely, hmn? First among them--and one that sends the 'Rats and their Hollywood friends either scurrying for a new topic or hooting in infantile derision--is PAX TV. This family-oriented network offers quality entertainment, both new and chosen from the best available shows in the archives of the industry. It's a huge success, and speaks volumes about Simon's ability to tap into the unmet needs of the Silent Majority. He'll govern the same way.