Posted on 12/17/2001 4:31:22 AM PST by UbIwerks
Does Russian President Vladimir Putin love us? Is he an ardent democrat? Does it matter? Despite a frequently bumpy courtship, ultimately Russia will end up at the altar with the West in a marriage arranged by the forces of history.
The relationship hit a rut last week, when President George Bush announced that we would withdraw from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty to begin testing a missile defense system.
The move is essential for our security. But Moscow's opposition is understandable. The treaty is a holdover from the days when we dealt with each other as equals. Russia clings to it as a symbol of faded glory.
Also, the Kremlin can't shake the feeling that if it weren't for its ICBMs (which missile defense might undercut), Washington would be more apt to command than consult. Former Federation President Boris Yeltsin said as much during NATO's war on Yugoslavia, when he sourly remarked that if not for Russia's nuclear arsenal, America would be telling Moscow what to do in Chechnya, the way it dictated to Belgrade over Kosovo.
Disagreement over ABM notwithstanding, Bush and Putin will formalize the decision to scale back their nuclear stockpiles (for the United States, from 6,000 to 2,200 warheads). More than any other development, this reflects the reality that America and Russia will never again be adversaries.
Still, Cold Warriors suffering from frostbite of the brain fret over Putin's intentions. They darkly note that the Russian president (once a KGB operative) believes in a strong state and has muzzled media dissent.
True, but he's also instituted reforms Yeltsin only talked about. Putin has cut taxes and marginalized the Communists, who've lost control of the Duma. He's established new property rights and a stable banking system, and is proceeding with judicial reform.
All of which bodes well for Russia's future - and ours. A vibrant Russia is in America's interests, as Putin's zeal in joining the war on terrorism demonstrates.
Terrorism must be ``destroyed, uprooted, liquidated,'' the federation president proclaimed. To this end, he offered to share intelligence, grant overflight privileges and provide reliable energy supplies.
After Saudi Arabia, Moscow is the biggest oil-producing nation. Recent investments will eventually boost its production by 20 percent, to 5. 34 million barrels a day.
``Russia remains a reliable and predictable partner and supplier of oil,'' Putin recently told a meeting of the World Economic Forum. The unspoken message: Unlike the House of Saud, we don't need to be propped up by the U.S. military.
In the 21st century, the crucial question isn't who loves me, but who can I make common cause with? This is another way of saying: Whose enemies are my enemies?
Russia has 300 million Moslems to its south and 20 million within the federation's borders. It's fought two wars with Islamic insurgents in Chechnya. A year before Osama bin Laden's boys flew two planes into the World Trade Center, bombs were exploding in Red Square, courtesy of the same al-Qaeda network.
The bastards have to travel halfway around the world to strike at America. Russia is in their backyard. The Russian people understand this. In a November poll, 32 percent of Muscovites said the war on international terrorism was the most important issue in Russian-U.S. relations, compared to only 16 percent who rated preservation of the ABM Treaty most important.
Russia also has 1.3 billion Chinese on its borders. In the past decade, millions of illegal immigrants from the Middle Kingdom settled in Russian Siberia, prompting former Defense Minister Pavel Grachev to warn, ``The Chinese are in the process of making a peaceful conquest of the Russian Far East.'' When will Beijing decide to reclaim Mongolia, which Russia wrested from China after World War I?
Russia and the West face the same clear and present dangers - from a rapidly arming, territorially ambitious China and an Islamic world, fueled by oil wealth and fanaticism, on jihad.
Vladimir Putin, who wears a cross and has an icon corner in his home, understands that the fate of Orthodox Russia is entwined with the Judeo-Christian West. ``From Russia out of necessity'' works as well as ``from Russia with love.''
Long Term - Russia becomes a voting and active member of NATO; China, with no blue water navy, is now surrounded by Russia (and its friends The Stans), a presently docile but potentially inflamed Mongolia, a long-time pissed-off India, a more and more capitalistic Vietnam, a worthless and toothless North Korea (which could easily become the northern suburb of a unified Korea) - and of course the Deep Blue Sea, presently and for the future a bathtub for the U. S. Navy.
The China card played so well by Nixon will now become the Russian card played with equal desterity by W. With influx of communications and the knowledge of and hope for individual freedom, within 10 to 20 years, China will fall as the monolithic communist capital and become a serious free-market competitor. My, my the folks (I am one) who grew up in the 50's and 60's are seeing quite a turn of events.
Still, Cold Warriors suffering from frostbite of the brain fret over Putin's intentions. They darkly note that the Russian president (once a KGB operative) believes in a strong state and has muzzled media dissent.
True, but he's also instituted reforms Yeltsin only talked about. Putin has cut taxes and marginalized the Communists, who've lost control of the Duma. He's established new property rights and a stable banking system, and is proceeding with judicial reform.
While I wouldn't go so far as to say "we will never again be adversaries", the Russian threat is gone for now. I think that if Bush ever gets fast track trade negotiating power, his first target should be to encourage Russia to change enough to join NAFTA. We could then rename the agreement to the Northern Hemisphere Free Trade Agreement(NHFTA). Spelled different but pronounced the same.
Many people don't realize this, but the USA shares a Border with Russia at the Berring Straits(20miles apart). We would have to be Finland to be any closer to Russia. Germany is a 1000 miles from Russia, and is considered to have more influence than we do, who share a border. We need to turn Russia's attention east, and to the pacific. It's siberia that's the jewel of Russia, not the eastern europe part of Russia. I think we have more to offer the Russians than the socialist bureaucrats of the EU. The Russians know all about the failures of socialist bureaucracy's, and are innoculated against them and hence the EU. A free trade offer to Russia when they are so eager to get into the WTO. Would generate alot of US investment into eastern Russia displacing US investment into China.
More competition for China is a good thing(communist scum). And India should be next, to get our free trade attention. We need to isolate China, not diplomatically, but through free enterprise competition. Communists central planners will be unable to keep up the pace. They are our foremost adversary, now that the USSR is no more.
The Islamic terrorists are a worry but their tactics, are the tactics of the desperate(suicide bombers, piracy, stealth) while effective, they are more of a law enforcement nature, than a true threat to our health and well being. In the next few years the US will force them aside. It's China that's the threat, and democratic Russia and India that are our opportunities.
I don't think we have to wait for a Japan/Russian relationship, the Japanese lost WWII and they know it. It will be US Russian trade after all, and the Japanese are going to see it, and want a piece of it. I also think infrastructure is sufficent with parallel rail lines all the way east from moscow, and shipping in the arctic ocean in the summer. With growth the Russians will move east to where the growth is, and the Chinese immigration will be counter balanced. A Chinese military(saber rattling) response would then be an opportunity for the US to form a Northern Alliance with Russia, further cementing our new trade ties. The US and Russia have never fought a war, we both have recently fought the Chinese. And we know they are worried about the Chinese trying to annex Siberia with all it's resources(it's those same resources we want to buy after all).
I know of at least 1 set of parallel tracks, built for military logistics in a war with China. I think we both agree that the Russian establishment looks to Europe, and that that would have to be modified with a Pacific Century publicity campaign. I don't see however a major road block to free trade agreements between Russia and the US. Once the agreements are in place, the development of the Russian far-east will proceed naturally, with economic considerations driving infrastructural investment.
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