Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Omar: Desperate Bluff or Credible Threat?
STRATFOR ^ | 2130 GMT, 011115 | Staff

Posted on 11/16/2001 1:19:55 PM PST by Axion

Omar: Desperate Bluff or Credible Threat?
2130 GMT, 011115

Summary

Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar has threatened the destruction of the United States "within a short period of time." Omar's threat is meant to rally his allies and fighters by showing that, despite claims to the contrary, the Taliban and al Qaeda are not defeated. Although al Qaeda's operational capabilities in the United States remain in question, if they have any ability to strike again, they will -- and soon.

Analysis

Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar threatened the destruction of the United States "within a short period of time" during an interview with the BBC's Pushtu service Nov. 15. Omar said the situation in Afghanistan "is related to a bigger cause -- that is the destruction of America" and warned "the plan is going ahead" and is being "implemented."

Omar's threats raise a question: Are these simply the defiant words of a defeated foe or is there credibility to the warning? His prediction of the imminent destruction of the United States is at its core a message to his allies and fighters that, despite claims to the contrary, neither the Taliban nor al Qaeda are defeated. To avoid losing all legitimacy or control, Omar and terrorism suspect Osama bin Laden must strike back at the United States -- and soon.

The territorial gains by the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan during the past week have raised serious questions about the Taliban's remaining capabilities. Although it appears that the core Taliban and al Qaeda fighters are preparing for guerrilla warfare -- their preferred style of fighting -- the rapid withdrawal has likely left many fighters and supporters questioning the leadership of Omar and bin Laden.

The ability of the Taliban and al Qaeda to remain at the core of a militant Islamist struggle against Washington now rests on their ability to demonstrate continued effectiveness. Assuming Omar's message is more than just a final gasp, one must assess the ultimate purpose of his comments.

In part, they are a rallying cry to forces and supporters inside Afghanistan. In the BBC interview, Omar dismisses the Taliban retreat as insubstantial. He points out that territorial gains and losses in Afghanistan are regular occurrences and that the tide can change again as swiftly as before. Instead, he repeatedly calls the withdrawal part of the "screening" of the Taliban: the removal of forces that are not loyal and the cleansing of the "sins" of the others.

He also says there will be no compromise between the Taliban and any coalition government in Kabul, bluntly stating that the Taliban "prefer death" to being "part of an evil government." This is a clear message to all Afghans that cooperation with the Northern Alliance or the United Nations is unacceptable.

The message is also directed at supporters and fighters outside Afghanistan, pointing them toward what Omar views as the higher calling of annihilating the Great Satan. Omar reiterates several times that every action in Afghanistan is part of a larger goal: "the extinction of America." This only adds impetus to the need for a new attack on the United States lest Omar, the Taliban and al Qaeda prove all bluster.

A new strike would send a clear message to Washington as well: The tactical victory in Afghanistan was a useless diversion because the real war is not being fought there, but on U.S. soil.

It is unclear whether al Qaeda and the Taliban expended all of their U.S.-based resources in the Sept. 11 attacks or, if not, whether anti-terrorism efforts have seriously hindered their ability to act. The planning that went into the Sept. 11 attacks, however, strongly suggests that terrorist cells are already established inside the United States and may simply be awaiting instructions to strike.

Both to ensure loyalty and to demonstrate to the U.S. government that the battle in Afghanistan has little bearing on the greater war, the Taliban and al Qaeda will use any means in their power to strike a high-profile blow against targets on American soil. Failing this, there is little they can do to remain legitimate in their global fight against the United States.



TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS:
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-58 last
To: clamper1797
reslove = resolve
41 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:33 PM PST by clamper1797
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 40 | View Replies]

To: He Rides A White Horse
Wouldn't you think that if our government looked at this as a credible threat, Ashcroft and all would be all over the place giving us warnings to be on super-duper triple extra alert again?
42 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:33 PM PST by lilsparky
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: Redcloak
Perhaps his plan is to cause us all to die laughing.

Oh, great. In addition to anthrax, smallpox, and nukes, he has a stockpile of Joker venom.

43 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:34 PM PST by steve-b
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: lilsparky
Wouldn't you think that if our government looked at this as a credible threat, Ashcroft and all would be all over the place giving us warnings to be on super-duper triple extra alert again?

No................panic never helped anybody.

44 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:34 PM PST by He Rides A White Horse
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 42 | View Replies]

To: steve-b
PS -- To the editor of Debka: When you cite Message #43 as a "military source," I expect a 10% royalty.
45 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:34 PM PST by steve-b
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 43 | View Replies]

To: He Rides A White Horse
I agree with you totally. We just do what we have to do and do it brutally and quickly and without mercy no matter what omar or osama says. Threats should just stiffen our resolve. Just like with any garden variety bully.
46 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:34 PM PST by cajungirl
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: kaylar
I think these guys actually believe their own propaganda about the weakness and decadence of the West in general and the United States in particular. They thought that if they killed a large number of civilians we'd be afraid to cross them for fear that they'd do it again.
47 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:34 PM PST by steve-b
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: cajungirl
Osama and Omar say what they believe

.........and what they believe in is the complete destruction of those who deviate from their view of what the world should be......

We can debate all we want to about whether they can accomplish their goals............they have a certain intent.

The intent is possible; the means aren't very far from their grasp.

48 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:35 PM PST by He Rides A White Horse
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 46 | View Replies]

To: Dog Gone
Reminds me of a joke I heard --
Inside the Fuerherbunker, just before the end:
Hitler: Report! Luftwaffe status?
Luftwaffe General: We still have a few boxes of spare parts and a Great War bi-plane from the Berlin Museum.
Hitler: Wehrmacht status?
Wehrmacht General: I've been able to raise a militia platoon consisting of a few dozen elderly men and 14-year-old boys.
Hitler: Naval assets?
Navy Admiral: We have a half-dozen sailors in a rowboat and a sailboat on the River Spree.
Hitler: [Pauses to consider these reports, then slowly smiles] All right! NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!!

49 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:36 PM PST by steve-b
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: lilsparky
Ashcroft and all would be all over the place giving us warnings to be on super-duper triple extra alert again?

Anybody who isn't on super-duper triple extra alert must live in a very nice place.

50 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:36 PM PST by He Rides A White Horse
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 42 | View Replies]

To: steve-b
Wehrmacht General: I've been able to raise a militia platoon consisting of a few dozen elderly men and 14-year-old boys.

Right, the "Volksturm".....

51 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:38 PM PST by He Rides A White Horse
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 49 | View Replies]

To: He Rides A White Horse
He also says there will be no compromise between the Taliban and any coalition government in Kabul, bluntly stating that the Taliban "prefer death"

Live by the sword, die by the sword.

52 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:49 PM PST by He Rides A White Horse
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 51 | View Replies]

To: He Rides A White Horse
A new strike would send a clear message to Washington as well: The tactical victory in Afghanistan was a useless diversion because the real war is not being fought there, but on U.S. soil.

Mullah Omar wants to convey a feeling that this one is different than WWII for instance.........that our soil will not be immune from attack.

53 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:49 PM PST by He Rides A White Horse
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 51 | View Replies]

To: Axion
It is unclear whether al Qaeda and the Taliban expended all of their U.S.-based resources in the Sept. 11 attacks

Of course not...........there are plenty here. Expect more.

54 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:50 PM PST by He Rides A White Horse
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: He Rides A White Horse
That's true, but I think he's a crazy old man and that he and the rest of his buds have by now noticed that the US press breathlessly reports every stupid thing they say.

Should we be worried? We should always be worried about Islam, which throughout its 1400 years of existence has shown itself to be little more than organized brigandage, extortion and terror (apologies to the gentle Sufis, hated by Islamics). But I really don't think there's a plan in place or the power to carry one out.

That said, I think there probably will be more attacks, but probably lone-wolf operations. Although after I read today that the White House is celebrating the opening of Ramadan, I wasn't even sure terrorism was necessary. Just hand them the keys to the city, why don't we. Mny other states have done so over the last 1,400 years.

55 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:51 PM PST by livius
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 53 | View Replies]

To: Axion
It is all very well to denigrate Omar and Ussama. I am uncomfortable doing so.

This may not be just a threat. It may be a recounting of an actual plan he has heard of--in a moment of lack of control because he is under terrible pressure, he spits this out.

I have always assumed that Ussama had some kind of end game in mind other than just sitting there and letting us shoot him up. I think he miscalculated the speed with which our efforts combined with the Northern Alliance could take over Afghanistan. However he clearly foresaw most of our general stratigy before he hit us on 9-11.

I assume that before he started the evening of 9-10, he had a scheme he thought would bring us down.

The actual number of Islams here in the US is somewhere between 3.5 and 7 million. They poll 70% thinking that although taking down the towers was not a directly reasonable remedy, the US is really responsible because of its bad conduct--its our own fault. So if you start with a number like 5 million Islams; 70% or 3.5 million thinking we have nobody but ourselves to blame--you take the polls from these islam schools of the kids through 19 being over 90% in support of ussama; it is not unreasonable to believe that 15% of these guys or around 750,000 would support attacks on US soil.

If ussama has an army of 750,000 in North America, they can do us a lot of damage with a sound plan and good tactical execution. I am concerned and think we should dig into the domestic group to find out what people know.

56 posted on 11/16/2001 1:21:01 PM PST by David
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: David
750,000 camel jockeys willing to meet Allah is something to think about. Then again, the number of firearms sold since SEP 11, added to the existing private stockpile, is nothing to sneeze at either. Let them start it, we'll finish it--And my guess is the casualties will exceed 750,000 by a large margin.
57 posted on 11/16/2001 1:21:03 PM PST by Arm_Bears
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 56 | View Replies]

To: David
I have always assumed that Ussama had some kind of end game in mind other than just sitting there and letting us shoot him up.

It's simple:

Bin Laden knows that modernization is destroying the life he espouses.

He must have hoped 911 would have initiated a cycle of violence that would have so spiraled out of control the civilized world would have been consumed in a worldwide apocalypse--thus preparing the way for his stoneage culture to flourish among the ruins.

But history has shown that nutjobs like Bin Laden possess an overly inflated opinion of their own ability to influence events on such a grand scale.

If his mother had spanked him, probably none of this would have happened.

58 posted on 11/16/2001 1:21:20 PM PST by Age of Reason
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 56 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-58 last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson