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Taliban underestimated US firepower and resolve of the Northern Alliance
The Telegraph (U.K.) ^ | 11/13/2001 | Ahmed Rashid

Posted on 11/12/2001 5:21:13 PM PST by Pokey78

ALTHOUGH the Taliban were prepared to retreat to their ethnic heartland in southern Afghanistan once the going got tough, they badly underestimated American bombing power, the determination of the opposition Northern Alliance and their vast unpopularity among the Afghan population. The result has been a rout rather than a tactical retreat.

Five years ago, the Taliban, mounted in their four-wheel pick-ups, captured Kabul in a three-day lightning strike.

Kabul's defender, Ahmad Shah Massoud, carried out a brilliant night-time retreat from the capital, evacuating the majority of his troops although losing much of his armour and heavy artillery in the process.

The Taliban calculated that they could do the same from Mazar-i-Sharif and other cities in the north once the alliance launched its offensive.

But they underestimated the withering bombardment carried out by American aircraft which first decimated their front lines, then prevented them from assembling at departure points for retreat, and finally harassed them relentlessly as they fled pell-mell.

In fixed positions dug into the mountains, the Taliban could sustain heavy US bombardment, but once in the open they were subject to attacks night and day as US drones with sensors and special forces on the ground marked out Taliban formations.

The Taliban had fought the alliance to a standstill over the past three years. They miscalculated the alliance's new energy and determination and the fact that, in the past two months, they had been bolstered by large quantities of arms and ammunition from their external supporters.

That determination can be judged by the fact that, with US air cover, the alliance sensed victory and their troops in Taloqan and Kunduz were willing to walk through minefields to reach Taliban defences. In some areas, mines rather than bullets appear to have created the largest number of casualties among alliance troops over the past four days.

But the Taliban's biggest fear was uprisings in the major cities from civilian populations who loathed their repressive government and viewed them as alien occupiers from the south who had no representation from their own minority ethnic groups.

Lacking all support from the population, the Taliban were unable to hide from the bombing by dispersing their troops among civilians, as they have done in the south.

Alliance commanders were able to receive intelligence reports from cities on Taliban positions given to them by friendly civilians. Taliban intelligence among the alliance troop deployments was virtually zero.

The means for the Taliban leaders to communicate in the field with their commanders around the country had become severely limited by the bombing which targeted emissions from satellite telephones or radios.

The lack of military co-ordination between the commanders and the inability of the leaders in Kandahar to communicate a strategy to their generals created confusion, panic and unease.

Thousands of Taliban troops have been trapped in the north due to the rapid advances by the alliance. Those who have escaped are making their way south to the Pathan heartland.

But along the way they face a totally hostile population and in some regions of the south they cannot now even trust their own Pathans.

Nevertheless, the Taliban still control southern and eastern Afghanistan and the long porous border with Pakistan where supplies of food and ammunition are still reaching them, while Pakistani fighters are still willing to cross over and fight for them.

The south is alien to the alliance and the domino effect of falling cities that took place in the north may not last long even if Kabul capitulates. Just a few miles out of the multi-ethnic capital, there are only the heavily armed Pathan tribes, among whom the alliance has no supporters.

The Taliban have many strengths to exploit. They have already dispersed their forces in southern Afghanistan in small towns and villages to avoid the bombing.

They will hold out in these positions awaiting what they expect will be a ground attack by American forces, even though that is highly unlikely due to the reluctance of Washington.

This means that America has to throw its weight behind anti-Taliban Pathan commanders in the south, such as Hamid Karzai. America also has to pressurise Pakistan to accept the new reality given that Islamabad has failed to deliver on its promise to create defections within the Taliban and bring out so-called moderates.

As fast as they have moved on the military front, the alliance have until now, just as swiftly, set up an administration in the cities that they have conquered to prevent revenge and inter-ethnic killings, and provide security so that UN-led humanitarian relief can reach the population. That is going to prove much more difficult than the military campaign.


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To: Pokey78
The Taliban had an opportunity to end this honorably before it began - all they had to do was point to the caves al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden were hiding in. I would expect they are reconsidering their decision.

Too late. And TFB. The meat grinder is wending its way through the ridges and valleys of Hindi Kush. This is not the Khyber Rifles, and British colonial officers who always wanted to be seen as "playing fair".

For America, this is not business as usual any longer, this is personal.

21 posted on 11/12/2001 5:48:16 PM PST by alloysteel
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To: KC Burke
I agree. Still, it is encouraging.
22 posted on 11/12/2001 5:48:29 PM PST by anniegetyourgun
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To: gunnut
Thank God for you!
23 posted on 11/12/2001 5:48:36 PM PST by conway
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To: blam
The bunker busters have already been working overtime, there's just been no-one there to record it. I read just today that a new, previously unknown, cluster of caves were found.

More Good News J
24 posted on 11/12/2001 5:49:09 PM PST by Fiddlstix
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To: Buckeroo
Which is why we'll need to get others to coordinate free elections once this is over. Personally, I'd like to relocate the Palestinians to Afghanistan and put the U.N. headquarters there!
25 posted on 11/12/2001 5:51:51 PM PST by anniegetyourgun
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To: Pokey78
Calling Joe Biden

Course the GOP in Delaware will be too wimpy to use his BS against him
26 posted on 11/12/2001 5:52:27 PM PST by uncbob
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To: Arkinsaw
What a difference a week makes. Last week we were losing the war and the Northern Alliance was just a ragtag bunch of morons with no offensive capability. The bombing was doing no damage.

Same thing as during the Gulf War. My boss was at Khe Sanh. He predicted that the Republican Guard would crack as soon as the ground war started, due to the B-52 strikes. He also predicted that the Taliban front lines would crack for the same reason.

The difference between him and Molly Ivins/various pundits/ex-generals? He spent a couple months near B-52 strikes, so he knows firsthand how terrifying the B-52 strikes could be even when they were on his side. Imagine what it's like to spend weeks as the *target* of B-52 strikes. Always talk to those who actually experienced what we're doing, not those who are only guessing.

27 posted on 11/12/2001 5:52:43 PM PST by Numbers Guy
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To: Pokey78
Well I guess Bush's popularity will go back to normal just like his dad's did

Boob public has a short memory
28 posted on 11/12/2001 5:54:49 PM PST by uncbob
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To: irish guard
How much is a nuke, as far as component and assembly costs worth, versus all of the conventional bombs we have dropped so far?

Seems to me that we could have just dropped a couple of nukes, accept their unconditional surrender, clean up the bombed cities, give them a treaty saying we will take care of their defense in perpetuity, rack up a lopsided trade deficit, and have raw-camel meat bars sprout up stateside, and still come out ahead. ;)

29 posted on 11/12/2001 5:55:14 PM PST by Frohickey
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To: anniegetyourgun
"Which is why we'll need to get others to coordinate free elections once this is over." -- anniegetyourgun

Doesn't sound very free to impose a government upon a soverign nation does it?

30 posted on 11/12/2001 5:55:37 PM PST by Buckeroo
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To: Pokey78
They miscalculated the alliance's new energy and determination and the fact that, in the past two months, they had been bolstered by large quantities of arms and ammunition from their external supporters.

Why can't they say The USA?

It's not like a big secret.

Gee, you blow up about 5,000 innocent people, destroy two major building and attacked our homeland

You got our attention: How's it feel?

31 posted on 11/12/2001 5:56:04 PM PST by JZoback
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To: Buckeroo
U mean, as opposed to no governing structure? As in having "none of the above" on the ballot? How 'bout they just giving them a place to write in their choice among all those who want the lead job?
32 posted on 11/12/2001 5:57:30 PM PST by anniegetyourgun
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To: gunnut
"Five years ago, the Taliban, mounted in their four-wheel pick-ups, captured Kabul in a three-day lightning strike."

You said "Try that in a country where the civilian population is armed. Second Amendment Bump."

Excellent point bump!

33 posted on 11/12/2001 5:58:05 PM PST by johnpaul
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To: JZoback
Just think what would happen if we really wanted to end this war right now!!
34 posted on 11/12/2001 6:00:16 PM PST by Brimack34
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To: Buckeroo
"... The "Northern Alliance" is a complete failure. Their apparent victories are a strategic blunder for the US as they pose an ominous regime that has little purpose other than another face upon totalitarianism.

There is a no-win situation in Afganistan for the US with the exception that we maintain focus about cutting the throats of bin laden, et al."

You act as though this is a bad thing. Our mission in Afghanistan, as previously stated, was clear:

1. Eliminate the Taliban.

2. Bring bin Laden to justice.

... That's it. After that, we go on to the next sanctuary of Al-Quaeda whereverso we may find them.

We'll mop up soon enough. Let the Afghanis control Afghanistan. Out there, due process is a bullet. Everyone knows the rules in Afghanistan. We should elect not to play the game.

Get in, pull the old #6 on them, and get OUT.

No matter what, they're going to be left better off than when we found them.

35 posted on 11/12/2001 6:00:37 PM PST by The KG9 Kid
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To: Illbay
I lived in cowtown (Ft. Worth for you non-Texans) for 10 years, about 12 years ago.

I could never in my life understand how Molly Ivins stays employed at the Fort Worth Startlegram.

She is the worst hack ever to grace the pages of a decent paper.

I used to write (before email) her about once a month just to piss her off and tell her she was ugly and stupid, not in that order, either.

I don't miss her.

36 posted on 11/12/2001 6:02:41 PM PST by JZoback
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To: Buckeroo
Face it, they are holding their version of an election right now.
37 posted on 11/12/2001 6:04:30 PM PST by Righty1
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To: anniegetyourgun
Keep in mind, that so far the consortium of neighboring nations that want to meddle in Afganistan's affairs are not friends ... although they say they come in peace.

It's hogwash. America should go in, strike the snakes that created the atrocity upon the WTC and get out. That area of the world is better left to themselves than any effort on our behalf. It is doomed to failure and *ANY* interference by America further postpones their capability to form their own republic, based upon their own edicts.

38 posted on 11/12/2001 6:06:25 PM PST by Buckeroo
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To: JZoback
Ivins remains an embarrassment to Texans everywhere. I think the Star-Telegram keeps her employed only because she incites Texans and sells newspapers as a result.
39 posted on 11/12/2001 6:10:34 PM PST by TADSLOS
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To: Righty1
I disagree with your comment. They have the full force of a few cluster/blanket bombing raids backed by the good faith and technological prowess of the American people. Once we discontinue our attacks, they will resort again to the tribal causation that they have known for centuries.

We need to punish the folks responsible for this; not meddle into their internal affairs.

40 posted on 11/12/2001 6:11:40 PM PST by Buckeroo
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