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Florida recount study: Bush still wins
CNN.com ^ | 11/11/01 | AP

Posted on 11/11/2001 6:05:12 PM PST by Nataku X

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- A comprehensive study of the 2000 presidential election in Florida suggests that if the U.S. Supreme Court had allowed a statewide vote recount to proceed, Republican candidate George W. Bush would still have been elected president.

The National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago conducted the six-month study for a consortium of eight news media companies, including CNN.

NORC dispatched an army of trained investigators to examine closely every rejected ballot in all 67 Florida counties, including handwritten and punch-card ballots. The NORC team of coders were able to examine about 99 percent of them, but county officials were unable to deliver as many as 2,200 problem ballots to NORC investigators. In addition, the uncertainties of human judgment, combined with some counties' inability to produce the same undervotes and overvotes that they saw last year, create a margin of error that makes the study instructive but not definitive in its findings.

As well as attempting to discern voter intent in ballots that might have been re-examined had the recount gone forward, the study also looked at the possible effect of poor ballot design, voter error and malfunctioning machines. That secondary analysis suggests that more Florida voters may have gone to the polls intending to vote for Democrat Al Gore but failed to cast a valid vote.

In releasing the report, the consortium said it is in no way trying to rewrite history or challenge the official result -- that Bush won Florida by 537 votes. Rather it is simply trying to bring some additional clarity to one of the most confusing chapters in U.S. politics.

Florida Supreme Court recount ruling

On December 12, 2000, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a Florida Supreme Court ruling ordering a full statewide hand recount of all undervotes not yet tallied. The U.S. Supreme Court action effectively ratified Florida election officials' determination that Bush won by a few hundred votes out of more than 6 million cast.

Using the NORC data, the media consortium examined what might have happened if the U.S. Supreme Court had not intervened. The Florida high court had ordered a recount of all undervotes that had not been counted by hand to that point. If that recount had proceeded under the standard that most local election officials said they would have used, the study found that Bush would have emerged with 493 more votes than Gore.

Gore's four-county strategy

Suppose that Gore got what he originally wanted -- a hand recount in heavily Democratic Broward, Palm Beach, Miami-Dade and Volusia counties. The study indicates that Gore would have picked up some additional support but still would have lost the election -- by a 225-vote margin statewide.

The news media consortium then tested a number of other hypothetical scenarios.

Use of Palm Beach County standard

Out of Palm Beach County emerged one of the least restrictive standards for determining a valid punch-card ballot. The county elections board determined that a chad hanging by up to two corners was valid and that a dimple or a chad detached in only one corner could also count if there were similar marks in other races on the same ballot. If that standard had been adopted statewide, the study shows a slim, 42-vote margin for Gore.

Inclusion of overvotes

In addition to undervotes, thousands of ballots in the Florida presidential election were invalidated because they had too many marks. This happened, for example, when a voter correctly marked a candidate and also wrote in that candidate's name. The consortium looked at what might have happened if a statewide recount had included these overvotes as well and found that Gore would have had a margin of fewer than 200 votes.

A county worker displays an optical scan ballot through a viewing window. The butterfly and caterpillar ballots

One of the most controversial aspects of the Florida election was the so-called butterfly ballot used in heavily Democratic Palm Beach County. Many voters came out of the polls saying they were confused by the ballot design.

According to the study, 5,277 voters made a clean punch for Gore and a clean punch for Reform Party nominee Pat Buchanan, candidates whose political philosophies are poles apart. An additional 1,650 voters made clean punches for Bush and Buchanan. If many of the Buchanan votes were in error brought on by a badly designed ballot, a CNN analysis found that Gore could have netted thousands of additional votes as compared with Bush.

Eighteen other counties used another confusing ballot design known as the "caterpillar" or "broken" ballot, where six or seven presidential candidates are listed in one column and the names of the remaining minor party candidates appeared at the top of a second one. According to the study, more than 15,000 people who voted for either Gore or Bush also selected one candidate in the second column, apparently thinking the second column represented a new race.

Had many of these voters not marked a minor candidate in the second column, Gore would have netted thousands of additional votes as compared with Bush.

However, the double votes on both butterfly and caterpillar ballots were clearly invalid under any interpretation of the law.

Limits of the study

The National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago study was commissioned by eight media companies -- The Associated Press, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, the St. Petersburg Times, Cox Newspapers, The Washington Post and the Tribune Co., which includes the Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, the Orlando Sentinel and Baltimore Sun, as well as other papers.

A county worker displays a punch-card ballot to a NORC coder. NORC used experienced staff researchers to supervise and train a larger pool of investigators, who then fanned out across Florida and personally examined 175,010 ballots provided by local election officials. The investigators recorded exactly what they saw on each ballot but made no attempt to determine whether the vote should have been counted.

From there, the media consortium took over, analyzing the raw data produced by NORC and drawing conclusions for various hypothetical scenarios.

As with any large-scale study, the NORC data is subject to some important limitations.

NORC reported serious problems with record keeping at many local election offices. NORC relied on these offices to produce the rejected ballots, but county officials were unable to deliver as many as 2,200 problem ballots to NORC investigators.

Although trained to produce accurate, impartial reports, the NORC investigators are human and prone to human judgment and error. In particular, NORC discovered that male investigators were more likely to record marks on ballots than women. NORC also found a slight but statistically significant relationship between candidate marks and the investigators' party affiliation.

Most importantly, there is no guarantee that the judgments of the NORC investigators would have matched those of local election boards had the recount been permitted to proceed under any scenario.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: floridarecount
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To: Nakatu X
This is the 8th, 9th & 10th time Bush has won!

As an offical "PB Co. Bush Observer",

whom Carol Roberts personally accused of "changing the rules after the election,"

I can say it was

only because the Bush team sent in the "A Team" and had Governors, etc. as volunteer observers, etc.,

and Bush ahd the superior Legal argument and the better team and

that Bush's REAL margin was measurably greater than the numbers after RAT tampering and vote stealing in Broward Co. & Palm Beach County, indicate,

(e.g., the well-documented plot by Gore and Team Gore to steal the militry overseas ballots & disenfranchise large numbers of teh military,

(while allowing several thousand Democat-voting FELONS to vote for Gore!!),

which was partially successful)

that the election wasn't stolen by Gore.

101 posted on 11/11/2001 7:20:09 PM PST by FReethesheeples
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To: Nakatu X
BARF ALERT (AND MAJOR LAUGHING ALLOWED.....from Democrats.com) Mr. Bush, Please Resign

To: Mr. George W. Bush

In the Declaration of Independence, our Founding Fathers wrote:

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed,--"

For over 200 years, the "consent of the governed" has been determined through democratic elections and by counting all of the votes. But in the year 2000, all of the votes were not counted.

Mr. Bush, you occupy the White House only because your brother Jeb, the Governor of Florida, stopped thousands of Democrats from voting - and because a narrow Republican majority of the U.S. Supreme Court prevent the counting of 180,000 uncounted votes.

Independent media reviews now clearly show that Al Gore would have won Florida by 50,000 votes, if all of Florida's counties - not just wealthy Republican counties - had up-to-date election machines. In addition, you lost Florida by at least several hundred verifiable, legal votes. This means that you were not entitled to Florida's twenty-five electors when the Electoral College met on December 18, 2000.

Had Florida's electors been properly assigned, you would have lost the electoral count by a margin of 292-246. This outcome is consistent with the popular vote, which you lost to Al Gore by 540,000 votes.

Mr. Bush, the single most important pledge that you made during your campaign was to restore "honor and integrity" to the White House. Since you did not truly win the election, you do not have the "consent of the governed." The only way for you to demonstrate your "honor and integrity" is to resign.

For the good of the nation, we therefore call upon you to immediately undertake the following actions:

The resignation of Vice President Dick Cheney
The appointment of Al Gore as Vice President of the United States
Your resignation as President of the United States, followed by the swearing in of Al Gore as the next President.

How about NO, NO AND GO FCUK YOURSELF! HAHAHAHAHAHA

102 posted on 11/11/2001 7:24:12 PM PST by finnman69
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To: Howlin
I guess they'll have to shut up now, huh?

NEVER!

Just think. We could have been "enjoying" recounts right up to 9/11! Think of all the fun we have missed.

No. Carvile will NEVER quit.

103 posted on 11/11/2001 7:25:28 PM PST by Phil V.
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To: finnman69
BARF ALERT (AND MAJOR LAUGHING ALLOWED.....from Democrats.com

Bush won't even get this letter.
His staff will read it, and toss it in the trash. Nobody wants to read a sore losers whining letter right now.
Bush has a nation to run, and a war to win.
What idiots.
If the letter contains anthrax, the FBI have their terrorists.

104 posted on 11/11/2001 7:36:16 PM PST by concerned about politics
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To: Nakatu X
Okay, are they saying Buchanan would not have gotten one single vote? You see where this is flawed? How can you come up with a certified number when you don't know which Buchanan votes were legitimate and which weren't. Therefore, none of them count. The dems have been cheating so long they don't even care if it's out in the open. Man, I hate 'em!
105 posted on 11/11/2001 7:39:28 PM PST by Terry Mross
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To: honway

106 posted on 11/11/2001 7:40:46 PM PST by ChadGore
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The main stream media won't stop! they are trying to make people hate our President. Don't give they the honor of your time! CHANGE THE CHANNEL!!!

CHANGE THE CHANNEL!!!


107 posted on 11/11/2001 7:43:54 PM PST by kappaluppa
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To: Nakatu X
"Drudge was just generating traffic and controversy... in other words, doing his job..."

If you recall BEFORE election night Drudge bragged how he would release VNS Poll data BEFORE the networks did.
Sure enough, before the 2nd time zone in FL closed he "announced" Gore won.
Then Fox, according to O'Reilly, was the 1st network to "announce" Gore won before the FL polls had closed.
On election night I was at a friends house while she was on the State of FL election return site,
it showed Bush ahead while Fox and everyone else said Gore won.
I wonder how many Bush votes were lost by the 2nd time zone due to Drudge, Fox etc.
108 posted on 11/11/2001 7:47:01 PM PST by 68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub
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To: Nakatu X
Using the NORC data, the media consortium examined what might have happened if the U.S. Supreme Court had not intervened. The Florida high court had ordered a recount of all undervotes ...when it intervened on Judge Sauls' ruling.
109 posted on 11/11/2001 7:51:03 PM PST by T. P. Pole
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To: 68-69TonkinGulfYatchClub
WORLD EXCLUSIVE: BIG MEDIA FLORIDA DATABASE: GORE TOPPED BUSH IF ALL UNDER/OVER VOTES COUNTED;

In other words, if illegal votes, "under/over", were counted Gore would have won.
Why count illegal votes? They're illegal!!!
. Drudge sucks.

110 posted on 11/11/2001 7:55:38 PM PST by concerned about politics
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To: concerned about politics
PS...."Media probe:
Bush still won
No clear indication Gore would gain enough if Supreme Court allowed count to continue
--Chicago Tribune "
111 posted on 11/11/2001 8:03:03 PM PST by concerned about politics
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To: summer
no need to apologize!
112 posted on 11/11/2001 8:03:58 PM PST by troublesome creek
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To: concerned about politics
PS (again) "White House: 'No news here, it's over'"
"Were all the votes counted, Al?"
113 posted on 11/11/2001 8:05:12 PM PST by concerned about politics
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To: Nakatu X
Matt Drudge is full of Crap !
114 posted on 11/11/2001 8:07:55 PM PST by KQQL
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To: knak
Right wing and media...where can I find that?
115 posted on 11/11/2001 8:09:01 PM PST by New Horizon
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To: Tuco-bad
Nice try, but according to CNN (and of course what was obvious all along to anyone with a brain), "However, the double votes on both butterfly and caterpillar ballots were clearly invalid under any interpretation of the law."

Drudge's article says that Gore wins only if they count the above-referenced ballots. We could have saved the consortium a lot of time and money.

116 posted on 11/11/2001 8:12:45 PM PST by alnick
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To: dawn53
I'll bet that headline was painful for them. LOL.
117 posted on 11/11/2001 8:14:46 PM PST by alnick
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To: epow
I wonder how many times those ballots can be counted before the paper disintegrates back into wood pulp.

I can just hear it, "Hey, here's a tree just like the one those ballots were made of. Count the rings."

118 posted on 11/11/2001 8:20:36 PM PST by alnick
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To: Clintons a commie
According to quotes from DU posted on FR, hours ago they were chortling that this recount favored Gore but most media outlets, even lib ones like CNN, the Chicago Tribune, Washington Post, etc.are interpreting this recount as favoring Bush. They were hanging all of their hopes on this-and now they're hopes must be dashed!

It really is delicious, isn't it, the way that they leaked just enough info to make those idiots think that they were going to be able to gloat, only to pull the rug right out from under them with the story. I'm loving it.

Revenge truly is a dish best served cold. LOL

119 posted on 11/11/2001 8:32:06 PM PST by alnick
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To: alnick
Revenge truly is a dish best served cold.

Amen to that.

And the cold of it is especially daunting when they're all heated up with their own vitriol!

120 posted on 11/11/2001 8:34:43 PM PST by Scott from the Left Coast
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