Thinking Ahead: Should Smallpox Become Reality, What Do We Do?

[ChemistCat]

There is a sizeable, cautious, but not hysterical contingent on FR that believes we may have been exposed to smallpox at some time in the last week. It's not something we know is happening. It's something we think is a reasonable scenario in light of other events. I'm starting this thread as a place to discuss what preparations our nation and communities do NOT seem to be making, and what our personal plans of action are if this CONTAGIOUS bioattack vector eclipses anthrax.

[LizM]

I thought smallpox would be almost impossible for the terrorist to get because only two labs (USA & Russia) have the virus and the security is very tight? I'm just wondering how they would get ahold of it and how would they transmit the virus? So, I'm hoping this is one of those stories that is just getting blown out of proportion. Anyway, it is a scary thought. Hope they could isolate any outbreak and vaccinate people close to the victims to contain it.

[ChemistCat]

I've wondered that myself, and there appears to be little or no information out there on it. Perhaps we effectively extinguished cowpox along with smallpox, and didn't realize we were letting ourselves in for more problems later?

Here's some information on INFLUENZA mortality. The US did NOT lose 20,000 to flu last year, incidentally. This information is not from the 2000-2001 season, however.
HOW SERIOUS IS INFLUENZA HERE IN THE UNITED STATES?

Influenza and pneumonia (the most common complication of influenza) combined are the fourth leading cause of death among American women, and the fifth leading cause of death among all Americans over the age of 65. (More than 90% of the deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza were among individuals age 65 or older.)

In the United States:

The total number of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza has increased 104%, from 45,030 in 1979 to 91,871 individuals in 1998. In 1998, pneumonia caused 90,147 deaths and the 1,724 influenza deaths represented an increase of 139% from the 720 deaths seen in 1997. An estimated 200,000 – 500,000 Americans visit their doctor for respiratory diseases.

In 1999, pneumonia and influenza cost the US economy $25.6 billion in care and absenteeism.

In 1996, the National Health Interview Survey estimated that there were 90 million cases of influenza, 62.3 million episodes of the common cold, 12.1 million episodes of acute bronchitis, 4.8 million episodes of pneumonia, and more than one million hospitalizations nationwide.

I think if the terrorists are willing to do smallpox to us, despite the risk to their own people (yeah, like they care a lot about them), it is because the economic cost of normal flu, cold, and pneumonia season is already substantial enough to affect a weakened economy.

This is from http://www.texaslung.org/Influenza/01-02flu_update.htm. I would have posted better information but the sites I really wanted won't load. GRRR AOL.

[Paleo Conservative]

If cowpox vaccinations can successfully prevent smallpox from occuring in humans.... WHY is there any shortage of vaccine? Can't it be made like in weeks from cowpox strains? The cowpox strains were how people protected themselves from smallpox in times long ago.

First you would have to have access to vaccina. Second, the FDA would not allow such a vaccine on the market. The current stockpiled vaccine would not be allowed if it were manufactured today. All the new vaccine will be grown in bioreactors containing large amounts of cultured cells.

[harrier13]

Because I'm posting calmness and common sense and not creating potential ghosts that would somehow affect and impact the way we live our lives.

By the way,I find it oddly curious that you make the statement "you agree with me most of the time".

I don't post here very often.

[ChemistCat]

Journal of American Medical Association's Article on Smallpox's use as a bioweapon.

It is my belief that articles on this subject in credible scientific journals would NOT be appearing if there were no credible evidence for the release of this virus from Russian "safekeeping."

Smallpox–The viral infection which once claimed millions of victims, but then was declared eradicated in 1979, is back at the top of the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention watch list–this time as the leading biological terrorism threat to the US. Russian intelligence reports and other evidence have lead CDC officials to conclude that North Korea and other potential adversaries may have harvested smallpox for use in weapons. Smallpox is unlike other biological agents, such as anthrax, in that it’s highly contagious but can be handled with impunity by those who are immunized. However, many are now vulnerable because for a while smallpox hasn’t been rec gnized as a general threat to human health and inoculations in the US and most other countries have all but stopped. That's from this site: Hazmatmag.com

[alloysteel]

There is still cowpox in America. I know, I have handled cows, and had this brief outbreak of pustules on my hands. In fact, smallpox is apparently a mutant form of cowpox, or camelpox or some other similar animal viral infection, that happened to become extremely virulent and largely affects only humans. Apparently it appeared only a few hundred years ago, did its devastation on an ignorant population, and was finally cornered and driven into near oblivion, existing as of today only as spores in a repository somewhere (hopefully, not in al-Qaeda's arsenal).

[Nogbad]

I thought smallpox would be almost impossible for the terrorist to get because only two labs (USA & Russia) have the virus and the security is very tight? I'm just wondering how they would get ahold of it and how would they transmit the virus?

Iraq was told by the WHO to destroy its smallpox samples back in the early 80's (I believe). Did they? What do you think?

[ChemistCat]

Perhaps I am confusing you with someone calm and rational. Please pardon me.

[harrier13]

McDonalds owns all the cows.

[harrier13]

The last refuge of the intellectually challenged and confused.An "ad hominem".

[Paleo Conservative]

I thought smallpox would be almost impossible for the terrorist to get because only two labs (USA & Russia) have the virus and the security is very tight? I'm just wondering how they would get ahold of it and how would they transmit the virus? So, I'm hoping this is one of those stories that is just getting blown out of proportion. Anyway, it is a scary thought. Hope they could isolate any outbreak and vaccinate people close to the victims to contain it.

The Russians violated their treaty obligation and massively expanded their biological warfare capabilites in the 1980s. According to Ken Alibek, they manufactured over 20 tons of Variola major virus between 1980 and 1991. Considering the economic problems facing Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, I would not be surprised if a scientist or lab technician stole a few milligrams of the virus.

[harrier13]

Did you use a picture because you are unable to express yourself effectively with the the written word?

[Paleo Conservative]

Did you use a picture because you are unable to express yourself effectively with the the written word?

A picture is worth a thousand words.

[ChemistCat]

The last refuge of the intellectually challenged and confused.An "ad hominem".

[LizM]

Interesting article. Thanks for the link.

[LizM]

Iraq?! No, I wouldn't trust Iraq.

[Nogbad]

From a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, by Mrs. Whelan, president of the American Council on Science and Health

Smallpox is not immediately contagious.

A person infected with smallpox does not become contagious until he or she is too sick to be walking around.

If you are wondering if the guy next to you on the subway has smallpox and decide to hold your breath between stops just in case, you are worrying needlessly.

In the first 12 days or so after infection, the patient feels fine and is not contagious.

On or about the 12th day, there is a spike in fever, and the, after a couple of days, the appearance of a rash-the highly visible “pox”- which is the signature of smallpox.

The beginning of the onset of the rash signals communicability.

By this time, the patient is bedridden, or in a medical facility, which is why most secondary infections occur at home or in a hospital, not in schools or other public places.

For this and other reasons, smallpox transmission throughout the population is generally slower than for such diseases as measles or chickenpox.

Of course, should a terrorist attempt to spread the virus by means of an aerosol release, this limitiation on vnues for infection would not be relevant.

But such means of transmission is at this point only theoretical.

It would be difficult to acquire and disseminate the virus-much more so than anthrax.

Even if there were an illicit source of smallpox, a terrorist would have to overcome sophisticated scientific and technological obstacles to cultivate it (one would need to grow the virus in eggs or animal cells) and disseminate it (putting it in the form of inhalable particles).

Theoretically, it wold be possible to have an individual “suicide vector”walk around once contagious, but one might question whether even the most devoted terrorist would be physically capable of effectively spreading the disease given the severity of the illness once it become communicable.

[ChemistCat]

I was just emailed a far more frightening one purporting to be a direct threat from OBL. I am not sure it is at all credible, but if you want to judge for yourself, FReepmail me and I'll give it to you. I am not sure I want to post something this scary and probably false publically. If it IS true it is definitely strontium-laced nuke time.

[DuncanWaring]

As for Smallpox I'll simply wear my gas mask everywhere in public. Will that do the trick or does it enter through miscelaneous other orifices???

I've heard smallpox can infect through breaks in the skin, but in that case it's far less virulent.

[fatima]

What is the difference between the two?