March/April 2001
Vol. 57, No. 2, p. 77-79
Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). A four-part program to upgrade Minuteman missiles continues:
First, missile-alert facilities were updated with Rapid Execution and Combat Targeting consoles.
Second, the ongoing Guidance Replacement Program will extend the life of the guidance system beyond the year 2020 and improve Minuteman III accuracy to near that of the current MX--a circular error probable of 100 meters. The new guidance set achieved initial operational capability in August 2000, when the first 10 sets installed on missiles at Malmstrom Air Force Base (AFB) surpassed the on-alert requirement of 720 hours. This program, scheduled to be completed by 2008, will cost $1.3 billion.
Third, the Propulsion Replacement Program (PRP) involves "repouring" the first and second stages, incorporating the latest solid propellant and bonding technologies, and replacing obsolete or environmentally unsafe materials and components. The propellant will be replaced in nine missiles in 2001, and in 33, 86, and 96 missiles over the next three years.
Fourth, the Propulsion System Rocket Engine Life Extension Program is designed to refurbish the post-boost, liquid-propulsion stage of the missiles.
The first successful firing of a PRP stage-one rocket motor took place at the Thiokol Propulsion test range in Promontory, Utah, last October. The air force is expected to award a $1.6 billion contract in early 2001 for full-scale PRP production through September 2008. The air force transferred responsibility for maintaining missile readiness to TRW, Inc., a private contractor, in December 1997. TRW's contract totals $6.3 billion.
The first remanufactured Minuteman III missile--with new guidance and propulsion systems--was launched successfully from Vandenberg AFB to the Kwajalein Missile Range in the Pacific Ocean on November 13, 1999. There were four test launches of remanufactured Minuteman III missiles in 2000. One test, conducted on June 9, involved a missile equipped with three unarmed reentry vehicles, which traveled approximately 4,200 miles in about 30 minutes before hitting a target at the Kwajalein range.
The MX missile carries the W87 warhead. Under START II, all operational MX missiles, which are housed at F. E. Warren AFB in Wyoming, are to be deactivated by 2007. Two of the 16 missiles slated for deactivation this year were "destroyed" in January. The United States regards an MX as destroyed if the top stage is dismantled; it reserves the right to use the rest of the missile as a launch vehicle for "satellites or other things." Russia argues that the entire missile must be destroyed.
Despite their planned deactivation, MXs continue to be flight tested under the Force Development and Evaluation Program. On March 8, 2000, an MX was randomly selected from the operational missile force and launched from Vandenberg. MX missiles can carry as many as 10 warheads each, but test launches normally involve only six reentry vehicles. A program is under way to extend the service life of the W87 by 40 years, presumably for use on Trident II missiles (see "Nuclear Notebook," May/June 2000).
Nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). Eighteen Ohio-class submarines constitute the current ballistic missile fleet. All Trident I submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) are expected to be replaced with longer-range and more accurate Trident II D5s by 2006.
Of the eight subs homeported at Bangor, Washington, the four oldest--the Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and Georgia--will be removed from nuclear duty by 2003. The remaining four will be modernized to carry the D5. The first one, the Alaska, arrived at the Puget Sound Naval Shipyard for overhaul and conversion in April 2000. Beginning in 2002, three submarines will be shifted from Kings Bay, Georgia, to Bangor to balance the 14-sub fleet.
To comply with START II, the navy will have to reduce the number of warheads on each missile or retire additional subs--or both. Under the current timetable, SLBMs will be allowed to carry no more than 2,160 warheads by the end of 2004, and no more than 1,750 by the end of 2007. If a START III is negotiated with limits of 2,000-2,500 deployed strategic warheads, the navy's portion would likely account for approximately half. That would mean a fleet reduction to 10 to 12 submarines, depending on the number of warheads per missile.
Although no new missile submarine class is currently planned, the navy hopes to deploy a new class by 2025. To meet that deadline, the navy has called for funding to begin by 2014. In the meantime, the service life of the Ohio-class subs has been extended from 30 to 42 years.
Last October, Lockheed Martin was awarded a $500 million contract to produce 12 Trident II D5 missiles between 2001 and 2003. As of December 1999, the navy had purchased 372 Trident IIs, but because the 1994 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) called for backfitting four Trident I-equipped SSBNs with Trident IIs, the total number of missiles to be procured increased from 390 to 453, raising production costs by $2.2 billion. Twenty-eight additional missiles were acquired for research and development. The total cost of the Trident II program is $27.2 billion, or $60 million per missile.
The Trident II D5 test program has been extraordinarily successful: Of the 112 D5 flight tests since 1987, only five have failed, and since December 1989 the program has recorded 90 consecutive successful launches, making the Trident II the most reliable strategic nuclear missile ever.
Originally scheduled to begin retiring in 2019, the Trident II is being upgraded to extend its service life. The upgraded missile, which is considered a "variant" of the existing D5, rather than a new missile, will be designated the "D5A." Funding is expected to begin in 2005, purchase of motors is planned for 2010-2012, and production is expected to START in 2015. Approximately 300 Trident II D5A missiles are planned, enough to arm 10 submarines.
Lockheed Martin's Missile and Space Operations has manufactured more than 5,000 Mk-4 reentry body assembly kits for the U.S. and British navies since 1976. To ensure that the W76/Mk-4 reentry body can support SSBN operations until 2040, a service life extension program is planned through 2020.
The Mk-5 carries the W88, the most advanced warhead in the U.S. arsenal. Production of the W88 was halted in 1989, after approximately 400 warheads had been produced, when the Rocky Flats Plant was forced to close for safety and environmental reasons.
President George Bush announced in February 1992 that no more W88s would be built. In 1999, however, small-scale production of plutonium cores (pits) for the W88 was resumed at the TA55 facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory to replenish pits destroyed in reliability testing. A total of four "development pits" had been fabricated by February 2000. Under current plans, TA55 is expected to produce 20 pits per year beginning in 2007, with an eventual goal of 50 pits per year. Full-scale pit production for the W88 is scheduled to begin in 2001. Production of new W87 pits will begin after the W88 program is completed.
Bombers. The B-52H is scheduled to remain in operation until 2044. In addition to front-line air force personnel, in late 1997 the Pentagon approved certification of full-time personnel from the air force reserve for support of nuclear war plans.
Air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs) are equipped with the W80-1 warhead. Although only about 400 ALCMs are deployed, hundreds more are held in reserve. According to the air force, there are a total of 1,142 ALCMs in the inventory, a reduction of 251 since March 1997. This reduction is a result of the conversion of some ALCMs to conventional roles. (Two hundred ALCMs are also kept in long-term storage.)
The advanced cruise missile (ACM) is also equipped with the W80-1 warhead. Originally, the Pentagon planned to produce 1,461 ACMs, but in January 1992 it announced that production would stop at 640 missiles.
Programs are under way to extend the service lives of both the ACM and the ALCM until 2030.
Cruise missiles are test fired from B-52H aircraft from the 2nd Bomb Wing at Barksdale AFB in Louisiana and the 5th Bomb Wing at Minot AFB in North Dakota. About six tests are conducted each year at the Utah Test and Training Range and the Tonopah Test Range in Nevada.
The B-2 bomber, the first of which was delivered to the 509th Bombardment Wing at Whiteman AFB, Missouri, on December 17, 1993, is scheduled to be replaced around 2040. A follow-on bomber program was begun in 1998.
The B-2 is configured to carry various combinations of nuclear and conventional munitions. Its nuclear weapons include the B61-7, B61-11, and B83. The B-2 is designated the "only" carrier of the new B61-11 earth-penetrating nuclear bomb, introduced in November 1997. B-2s can carry either B83 or B61 bombs, but not both at the same time.
The B-1B is not included in the table because it has been converted to a conventional-only platform. The aircraft was officially removed from the Single Integrated Operational Plan on October 1, 1997. However, to comply with the defense secretary's "Defense Planning Guidance for 1999-2002," the air force maintains a "Nuclear Rerole Plan" for the B-1B should they be needed for nuclear war-fighting. B-1B aircraft do not undergo nuclear surety inspections and cannot participate in nuclear exercises. START II allows for a one-time nuclear re-arming of the conventional B-1B fleet, in which case a 16-warhead "weapons load" would be accredited. Of the original 100 B-1Bs, 93 remain. The B-1B is scheduled to be replaced in 2038.
Non-strategic forces. Although the number of non-strategic nuclear weapons has declined dramatically since the Cold War, a 1998 Pentagon study concluded that the numbers of tactical weapons should not be significantly reduced because of Russia's large stockpile of such weapons and its declared dependence on them.
As part of an overall consolidation of nuclear weapons facilities, the navy's Tomahawk cruise missiles (with W80-0 warheads) are now stored at Kings Bay, Georgia.
The NPR mandated that surface vessels no longer be equipped to carry nuclear-armed Tomahawks. However, the option was retained to redeploy the missiles on attack submarines (SSNs). While most U.S. attack subs had some nuclear capability during the Cold War, today most SSNs do not have a nuclear mission. In the Pacific Fleet, less than half of the attack subs undergo regular nuclear certification. Tomahawk operations are included in Strategic Command's (Stratcom) annual Global Guardian nuclear exercises.
An estimated 150 B61 tactical bombs are deployed at 10 air bases in seven European countries for use on nato planes. The Weapons Storage and Security System used to store the nuclear bombs at these locations was installed between 1990 and 1998. Current programming calls for modernizing these facilities before 2005 to maintain the system through the fall of 2018.
A supply of B61s is stored at air bases in Nevada and New Mexico for the F-16A/B/C/D Fighting Falcon, F-15E Strike Eagle, and F-117A Nighthawk. Although the F-117A is considered nuclear capable, it is maintained at a lower level of nuclear readiness than the other aircraft. All F-15, F-16, and F-117A aircraft are expected to be replaced by the F-22 and Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) over the next decade or so. The F-22 will not have a nuclear capability, but the air force plans to make some JSFs nuclear capable.
In response to Presidential Decision Directive 60, signed by President Bill Clinton in November 1997, the nuclear readiness posture of U.S.-based dual-capable aircraft was reduced. Nevertheless, all dual-capable craft are maintained for worldwide deployment "in any theater," and fighter-bombers are routinely included in Stratcom's Global Guardian exercises.
Stockpile. In addition to the active stockpile, an "inactive stockpile" (or "hedge") was created in early 1990 to provide extra warheads for reconstitution of part of the force in case arms control expectations failed to materialize. Also stored in the inactive stockpile are warheads used for quality assurance and reliability testing.
As arms control agreements have reduced the active stockpile, the inactive stockpile--which is not covered in the agreements--has grown significantly, with the total stockpile in the 10,000 range. Most weapons removed from active status under START I will be placed in the inactive stockpile to meet the "lead and hedge" requirements contained in the NPR. As a result, although only about 5 percent of the total stockpile was in the inactive category before START I, under START II the inactive stockpile could increase to 50 percent or more.
Nuclear Notebook is prepared by Robert S. Norris and William M. Arkin of the Natural Resources Defense Council, Hans M. Kristensen of the Nautilus Institute, and Joshua Handler. Inquiries should be directed to NRDC, 1200 New York Avenue, N.W., Suite 400, Washington, D.C., 20005; 202-289-6868.
©2001 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
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September/October 1997 Nuclear Notebook: Where the Bombs Are, 1997 U.S. nuclear weapons are currently stored at some 26 locations in 15 states and seven foreign countries. This column updates the comprehensive accounting done in 1992 (see "Nuclear Notebook," September 1992 Bulletin) and is adapted from a forthcoming Natural Resources Defense Council report, "Taking Stock: Worldwide Nuclear Deployments, 1997," which will cover Russian, British, French, and Chinese locations as well. Since 1992 nuclear weapons have been withdrawn from 10 states: Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Hawaii, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and South Carolina. They were withdrawn because:
While the total number of nuclear weapons stationed in Europe has changed since 1992, the number of European countries where weapons are currently stored has not changed. Bombs for U.S. and/or NATO aircraft continue to be deployed in Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Turkey, Belgium, Netherlands, and Greece. From a recent peak in the 1980s of some 24,000 warheads, the number of U.S. nuclear weapons in all categories (operational, hedge, reserve, and retired warheads awaiting dismantlement) currently stands at 12,500. Of these, some 1,750 warheads are scheduled for disassembly over the next three years. This will leave a stockpile in the 10,500-warhead range for operational forces, the hedge, and reserve (see "Nuclear Notebook," July/August 1997 Bulletin). The first table lists the number of nuclear weapons present in each state; the table on page 63 lists the location of U.S. nuclear forces by type.
Of the 15 states that host nuclear weapons, New Mexico ranks number one by virtue of the many warheads stored at the Kirtland Underground Munitions Storage Complex (KUMSC), a modern $43 million, 300,000-square-foot facility opened in 1992. Special military aircraft land at the Albuquerque International Airport and load and unload nuclear weapons at the "Hot Cargo Pad." Warheads are taken to the KUMSC and stored in one of 58 storage bays/underground bunkers. The facility has state-of-the-art security. Special tractor-trailers transport warheads across Interstate 40 to and from the Pantex Plant outside of Amarillo, Texas. As the primary custody transfer point from the Energy Department to the Defense Department for warheads going from Pantex to the field, and from Defense to Energy for warheads going from the field to Pantex, Kirtland occupies (and has occupied since the 1940s) a special place in nuclear logistics. Georgia and Washington rank second and third. Each has a naval base for Trident ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). Kings Bay has 10 SSBNs, Bangor eight. At any given time approximately half of the warheads at each base are at sea, aboard SSBNs on patrol. Nevada ranks fourth, with the second major air force storage site at Nellis AFB. Nellis too has been a nuclear storage facility for more than 40 years. Known as Lake Mead Base, it first became operational in September 1954 as one of the original six National Stockpile Sites (NSS). The five other original NSS were: Manzano Base (now Kirtland); Fort Hood, Texas (Killeen Base); Fort Campbell, Tennessee (Clarksville Base); Barksdale AFB, Louisiana (Bossier Base); and Lackland AFB, Texas (Medina Base). The retirement of approximately 11,000 warheads since the end of the Cold War, including the removal of thousands of nuclear weapons from overseas bases, is the largest shift in deployment patterns since the late 1950s and early 1960s when they were initially fielded. The reductions in Europe are dramatic, with more than 6,000 warheads of almost a dozen types deployed in 1985 and only some 150 B61 tactical bombs today. B61s withdrawn from Europe have been retained in a reserve/hedge status in the United States (at Kirtland and Nellis) and are not scheduled for retirement. The locations of nuclear weapons remains an official secret despite the fact that nuclear security requirements and other indicators make their presence obvious.
A: army; ACM: advanced cruise missile; AF: air force; AFB: Air Force Base; ALCM: air-launched cruise missile; GLCM: ground-launched cruise missile; N: navy; NAS: Naval Air Station; NATO: non-U.S. delivery systems; NWS: Naval Weapons Station; SLCM: sea-launched cruise missile; SRAM: short-range attack missile. In weapons nomenclature B stands for "bomb" and W for "warhead." The number following the letter indicates the order in which it was introduced into the stockpile; for example, W88 followed W87. Nuclear Notebook is prepared by Robert S. Norris and William M. Arkin of the Natural Resources Defense Council. |
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