[Travis McGee]

Without a doubt, we are standing on the edge of an unimaginable few years.

There are so many variables, (China etc) that predictions aren't worth much, but I think that OBL will get his holy war between Islam and the West.

More terrorism in the USA will lead to US strikes beyond Afganistan. ("The Bush Doctrine.")

The brainwashed zombie moslems from the Philippines to Nigeria are going to go berzerk, killing every Westerner they can get their hands on, Algerian style.

Major Western rescue operations will be mounted to save besieged Western enclaves, this will be seen as "crusaders invading the Islamic world".

At some point the oil gets cut off, as regimes topple and new anti Western "Ayatollahs" come to power.

More terrorism in the West will belatedly lead to internment and deportation of Moslems, beginning with non-citizens, and working outward to recently naturalized citizens, as the terrorism continues.

In a few years we will arrive at a total defacto split between the West and Islam. No trade, no travel, no jets, no ships.

This will lead to an economic depression in the West as we absorb an oil shock worse than 73-74. But we will work out of it as we replace supplies: the market will work, oil is just another fungible commodity in the end.

In the Islamic nations the economic split will lead to starvation, civil war, disease, and anarchy, with many Islamic capitols resembling Mogadishu or Kabul as warlord chieftans battle for the rubble. Only this time, no Western food or medical aid will be forthcoming.

A few Islamic nations may come out of their civil wars with a local "Attaturk" in charge who will crush the Islamists and enforce strictly secular states. They will be able to rejoin the civilized world.

Of course, it could veer into unexpected directions, then all bets are off. (Chinese invasions of Taiwan, Malaysia, Philippines etc. in response to Chinese economic depression for one example.)

[HiTech RedNeck]

If anything serious gets between the USA and its oil supply, it will be like a mother bear separated from her cubs. We would probably bomb Baghdad and its ilk out of existence rather than suffer that.

[quimby]

Of course, it could veer into unexpected directions, then all bets are off. (Chinese invasions of Taiwan, Malaysia, Philippines etc. in response to Chinese economic depression for one example.)

It would seem that china would prefer their confrontation with us would be somewhere in the future. But sooner or later.

[mercy]

Gee whillikers. You are such a BUMMER. You need veykeyshun. 8^O

[Twodees]

I lived in Longview, Texas for a few years in the 80's. There was a little clique of oldtimers, oilpatch trash they called themselves, who met at the bar of a restaurant downtown. They all said that the Caddo Pool was nowhere near tapped out and represented 20 years of supply without drilling a single new well.

These old boys were drillers and lease pumpers who had been in the biz since the 30s and 40s. According to them, Texas/Louisiana oil had just been capped off by pricing agreements established under Nixon's phony "Energy Crisis" which one of them claimed was a load of hooey from the jump, invented as a way of establishing dependency on the OPEC cartel.

If they were right, there's plenty of oil to be pumped right here without drilling in Alaska. We may find out if the scenario you expect plays itself out in the next few years.

[harpseal]

I have been predicting that this would devolve into a war of the USA against Islam from Sept. 11 on. The kicker is that we know Pakistan has Nukes (acknowledgement of William Jefferson Clinton's contribution hereby made). The means to deliver nuclear weapons do not have to be sophisticated unless we are engaged in a total war from our side. The involvement of China is yet to be determined and I am not optimistic about how that will turn.

It is going to get a whole lot uglier here. I refer once again to the ongoing harassment attacks of Anthrax. Yes they are "pinpricks" in one sense but they keep us very busy with little real expenditure of resources on their part. Each letter with talcum powder cuases a reaction and costs us far more than the $.34 stamp on the letter. Hazmat crews are getting exhausted and labs that test the powders are getting very tired. The US Post Office is perhaps an unplanned target of these attacks.

I am concerned about what these pin priclks are diverting our attention from.

Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown