These old boys were drillers and lease pumpers who had been in the biz since the 30s and 40s. According to them, Texas/Louisiana oil had just been capped off by pricing agreements established under Nixon's phony "Energy Crisis" which one of them claimed was a load of hooey from the jump, invented as a way of establishing dependency on the OPEC cartel.
If they were right, there's plenty of oil to be pumped right here without drilling in Alaska. We may find out if the scenario you expect plays itself out in the next few years.
And our petroleum industry will BOOM! Lots of jobs in ASAP oil extraction.