Posted on 10/06/2001 8:51:27 PM PDT by blam
Bitter winter threatens war strategy
Rory McCarthy in Islamabad
Sunday October 7, 2001
The Observer
Military experts warned last night that US and British forces will face a 'logistical nightmare' in Afghanistan unless they complete operations before the bitter winter descends in six weeks time.
Heavy snows and freezing temperatures make troop movements virtually impossible. Key mountain passes are blocked and Afghanistan's deadly carpet of mines will become increasingly difficult to clear.
While Taliban fighters are well used to surviving in appalling conditions, the Afghan winter will test the most extreme training of Western special forces.
'Winter is a serious consideration. The fighting season in Afghanistan is April to August. Now they may already be too late,' said Rifaat Hussain, a military specialist and head of the defence department at Islamabad's Quaid-i-Azam University.
'It is going to create a logistical nightmare in getting this offensive going.'
The conditions will rule out a prolonged ground battle with Taliban fighters and will shift the emphasis of the campaign onto short ground operations backed by air strikes.
'Clearly things can't wait very much longer. They have a few short weeks,' a Western defence attache said.
But with blizzards and sleet, pilots will find visibility poor and targets on the ground will be easily hidden in deep drifts of snow.
In the 1980s war Soviet pilots, themselves used to bitterly cold conditions, were grounded by the 'whiteouts' they faced in the Afghan winter.
US special forces are likely to rely on the MH-60 Black Hawk helicopter to drop them in for small-scale missions but severe turbulence and heavy ice will seriously challenge the Black Hawk's capabilities.
In addition Western jets and helicopters will be vulnerable to attack by Stinger missiles. During the 1980s the CIA gave 1,000 missiles and 250 launchers to the Mujahideen. Despite a buyback programme, some are now in Taliban hands.
Taliban commanders may have up to 150 Stingers, said Dr Hussain, although some intelligence reports suggest there could be as many as 400 in Taliban hands.
'They've also managed to adapt other shoulder-firing launchers to fire the Stingers. This will be a serious threat to air warfare,' he said.
Snowfalls will cover many of the most strategically important minefields across the country. Up to eight million mines remain embedded around key targets.
The minefields of the Shamali plains, which lie north of Kabul, are perhaps the most significant hurdle. Northern Alliance opposition troops leaving their stronghold in the Panjshir Valley will have no choice but to cross the plains if they want to take Kabul.
Supplying the forces spread out across Afghanistan is notoriously difficult even during the heat of summer. High mountain passes make supply routes tortuous. During the winter many of the most important passes are blocked until the spring.
The Panjshir Valley in particular will become isolated. The virtually impregnable valley is home to the Northern Alliance headquarters and is the base from which any attack on Kabul is most likely to begin.
Yet by early November winter will block the 4,400-metre high Anjuman pass at the north of the valley, which links the Panjshir to the Northern Alliance's bases in north-eastern Afghanistan and its supply routes across the border from Tajikistan.
Even during summer the alliance's ageing Mi-17 transport helicopters struggle across the pass, flying just metres above the barren mountain crags of the Hindu Kush, the blades cutting through desperately thin air. In the winter the helicopters will be almost permanently grounded by conditions.
Other key passes from Kabul to the north, through Salang and Bamiyan, reach as high as 12,000 feet and will also be cut off. Temperatures will plunge as low as minus 40 Celsius, with terrifying wind chill factors when simply holding a rifle becomes a challenge.
The UN children's fund has warned that millions of children could die of hunger and cold this winter. Already 7.5 million people in Afghanistan are at risk of starvation. Food shipments into the country will be as badly disrupted as military operations by the winter.
'We believe an even greater tragedy would result from the inability of the international community to obtain humanitarian access before winter starts,' said Nigel Fisher, Unicef's Afghanistan representative.
Millions of children needed blankets, winter clothing, shelter, food including special therapeutic food for already malnourished children, he said. Already one child in four dies before the age of five. Nearly half Afghanistan's population is below the age of 18.
'It takes three months to die of hunger, one month to die of thirst and only one night to die of cold,' said Eric Laroche of Unicef.
1. The U.S. has received over 200 terrorist threats in the past 36 hours.
2. An unmanned spy plane has pinpointed 18 missile sites inside Afghanistan.
This tactic will take some time, that's why I made the comment I did stating that the visible bombings won't occur for several months. Does the US and its' citizens have the patience?
I believe they said Russian made SAMS.
My Latin is a little rusty.
3 acreas on a rural Texas lake. Same generation.
Something like, "Dare to Defend." Alabama State Motto.
It won't be U.S. troops camping out in the wilderness, it will be the remnants of the Taliban. It sure will be a cold, lonely winter for them. And if they light so much as a fire, it will be picked up by satellite and we'll send an F-15 over to put it out for them.
Now your talking.
You too, huh? Coldest night of the year here in South Alabama tonight.
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