Posted on 09/10/2001 8:13:13 PM PDT by crasher
Strom Thurmond, Jesse Helms, and now Phil Gramm retiring. This has created a media firestorm about how Senate Republicans will be wiped out in 2002. True, Republicans probably will not regain the Senate in 2002. And there are still at least a couple of possible retirements that really would hurt Republican chances in 2002. But these three retirements have been blown way out of proportion.
Lets look at them individually. In South Carolina, Strom Thurmond is looking a bit frail, so he decides to retire instead of running for another term that would end when he would be 106. This isn’t news. When he ran for reelection in 1996, it was already clear that it would be his last campaign. What is news, however, is the inability of Democrats to find a candidate who has much of a shot against Lindsey Graham. Graham is in a better position than most incumbents, so it is silly to talk about how Thurmond’s retirement is bad news for Republicans.
In North Carolina, Jesse Helms decided to retire instead of running for a sixth term that would end after his 87th birthday. This was also not surprising. Furthermore, Helms decision to retire actually increases Republican chances of holding his seat. Helms never won with more than 55% of the vote. He would have been only a slight favorite for reelection. Now, with the seat open and Elizabeth Dole about to enter the race, Republicans have a very good chance of winning.
It would be foolish to read some larger meaning into these two retirements. Clearly neither Helms nor Thurmond retired because they lost their gavels and were pessimistic they could get them back. Indeed, it would probably not be in Republican interests to have Helms run again. It would certainly not be in Republican interests for Thurmond to try and run again!
So those who want to argue retirements are dooming Senate Republicans point to Phil Gramm. But there are several problems with their argument. First, there was speculation in Roll Call magazine, well before the 2000 election, that Gramm might not run again. This was when it seemed like Democrats might never regain the Senate. Second, Gramm like many politicians driven by strong convictions, probably actually enjoys being in the minority. Finally, Gramm gave a very emotional speech outlining his reasons for retiring. In that speech he made it very clear that losing his chairmanship had nothing to do with his decision. I don’t think he was lying.
Will Republicans be hurt by Gramm’s retirement? Yes. Instead of having something like a 98% chance of holding his seat, Republican chances go down to something like 75%. On the other hand, the affect Gramm’s retirement will have on other races in Texas is less clear. For example, it is possible that a couple of Democrats will leave their Republican-leaning seats in the House to run for an open Senate seat. It is also possible that if Henry Bonilla leaves his seat, a Democrat might win it. Gramm’s decision is bad news for Republicans, but it does not necessarily portend a stampede of elephants leaving the Senate.
Lost in all of the media’s coverage of the plight of Senate Republicans, is how unremarkable it is for a party to have three of its members retire. The Democrats had six, eight, three, and three retirements in ’94, ’96, ’98, and 2000. In those same years Republicans had three, six, two, and three. During the past four election cycles, Democrats had an average of five retirements while Republicans had an average of three and a half. Republicans still need another retirement or two just to suffer an average number of retirements. Are you listening Fred Thompson and Pete Domenici?
I am not saying Republicans are going to win back the Senate or even hold their own. But I am saying that the retirements so far are basically a wash in terms of each party’s ability to meet its goals in 2002.
I sincerely hope that neither of these men retire, especially Domenici. He has a tremendous amount of knowledge that he puts to use in the budget battles. He is formidable and we need his talents.
Fred Thompson is another good man and I hope he stays as well for another term.
Jen
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