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Posted on 11/02/2026 3:36:03 PM PST by CaptainK
I said last night on News 24, I expect the Democrats to make a net gain of 25 or more seats in the House and take control of that chamber. I think they will fall short in the Senate, but I could be wrong: it is entirely possible that they could gain four or more seats and take control of that body, too.
What will the reaction in the press be, especially if the Democrats do eke out a Senate majority? You will be told that Trumpism has been repudiated. That Trump’s second term is as good as over. You will be told by some that Trump should resign, and that the GOP needs to move to the left to remain viable. The self-satisfaction and sense of vindication on the left will be intolerable.
So a little historical context is useful. Whatever happens tomorrow, it won’t be as catastrophic as the 2010 midterms, when Barack Obama lost 63 House seats. Do you remember the press telling you that Obama had been repudiated, or the the Obama administration was over? I don’t, either. Nor will it be as bad as 1994, when Bill Clinton lost 54 seats. And Trump likely will lose fewer House seats than he did in 2018, 41.
As for the Senate, the Democrats almost certainly will pick up fewer seats than the Republicans did in 2010–nine. And they are highly unlikely to pick up as many Senate seats as they did against Ronald Reagan, the greatest president of the 20th century, in 1986 (8), or as many as the Republicans gained against Clinton in 1994 (also 8).
So whatever happens tomorrow is unlikely to be a departure from historic norms, or a reset of American politics. In all probability it will be business as usual–the “out” party picks up seats in the midterms. On Wednesday it will be time for us conservatives to ignore the press and go back to work.
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We should check this again in about 48 hours, just to see how it aged.
25 is fantasy.
Everyone forgets the redistricting. Should be good for +6 or more.
Also, it ignores the safe seats. That’s most of them. There aren’t a lot of open House seats.
And it ignores the old adage that 90% of House incumbents win reelection.
The Founders made the presidency VERY powerful. Democrats think they are winning the Knesset or something. WRONG!
All because of the price of gasoline?
Didn’t stop Obama or Clinton.
PEN AND A PHONE
But now we're supposed to believe that they will now flip five seats in states where Trump had a double digit lead in 2024. Those are some odds.
Ping
Too late. The media has been saying this for oh, about two years. And during the previous Trump term.
I think this guy has bought into the fear porn.
You will be told this by Freepers.
I think there are only 18 House seats truly up for grabs. I think we win/keep at least 1/3 of those.
TRUMP IS MODERATE MAGA, THEY HAVEN’T SEEN REAL MAGA YET.
That sounds correct.
Marking.
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