Europe wrestles with impact of historic regional gains for Germany's AfD

BBC ^ | Sept 7. 2026 | Katya Adler

[McGruff]

"Seismic", "a socio-political earthquake", "a watershed moment for Germany".

This was how political analysts and many media outlets described the stunning victory of the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in local elections in Germany on Sunday. Is that an exaggeration?

Saxony-Anhalt is one of the smallest of massive Germany's 16 regions. It boasts a mere 1.7m out of 59m eligible voters nationwide. How significant can its political sentiments be, especially since the AfD narrowly failed to win an outright majority?

The answer: very significant.

The vote may have been regional but it impacts at national level. The AfD landslide piles even more pressure on the already beleaguered centrist coalition government in Berlin. It may prove to be the nail in the political coffin of Germany's deeply unpopular conservative Chancellor, Friedrich Merz. He had promised to slash the AfD's popularity.

[srmanuel]

You can be confident that the political establishment in Germany and around the EU will not go away silently, it will be interesting to see how they respond, the German elites have toyed with the idea of banning the AfD as a political party.

Could they establish a false flag attack and blame the AfD as a pretext for banning the party.

Could they arrest some of the major political leaders in the AfD.

Something is going to happen, it will be interesting to see.

[dfwgator]

It’s a BfD!

[zeestephen]

This is deliberate comedy, right?

Most recent national German poll...

AfD - 28%

Where is AfD going to find another 23% to form a government?

[Alvin Diogenes]

If the BBC is scared, this is a good thing!

[ArcadeQuarters]

Didn’t they get around 44% in yesterday’s state election?

[kabar]

The AfD has been growing exponentially in popularity in Germany. If Germany continues its downward spiral, it is only a matter of time before it becomes the majority party. It is the 2nd largest party now doubling in size since 2021.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/24/charting-the-rise-of-germanys-far-right-afd-party

[SunkenCiv]

Whaaaat?!? No "far right" "far-right" "Far-right" or "Far Right"? Someone's getting fired!

• German far-right AfD wins by a landslide in Saxony-Anhalt but falls short of majority [09/07/2026]
• Far-right AfD wins key German state election but may fail to secure majority [09/06/2026]
• Far-right AfD posts historic German state election win, exit polls show [09/06/2026]
• German exit polls suggest far-right party has big lead in regional election [09/06/2026]
• Could the AfD become Germany's first far-right non-far-left party to lead a state since WWII? [09/05/2026]
• The plot to stop the AfD Germany's firewall is crumbling in Saxony-Anhalt [09/05/2026]

[alexander_busek]

[...] the German elites have toyed with the idea of banning the AfD as a political party

They have done far more than merely "toy" with the idea!

Civil servants who have expressed (online) AfD-friendly opinions have been arrested / fired. The Bundesverfassungsgericht (equiv. to the U.S. Supreme Court) has labelled individual state-level AfD parties "gesichert rechtsextrem" (they ought to be consistent and label the left-wing parties as "gesichert linksextrem!"). The Verfassungsschutz has officially deemed them worthy of "special observation" (but they aren't surveilling the Antifa!), etc.

Add to that various high-level functionaries of the "old" parties casually speculating about de-banking, deplatforming, or otherwise sanctioning ordinary citizens with AfD sympathies, and you see what I mean.

The "old parties" are inches away from setting fire to the Reichstag only in order to "prove" how extreme and violent the AfD is.

Regards,

[nathanbedford]

The AFD is now clearly the majority party in Germany, at least in sentiment, and has become a force that must be reckoned with. That means that the "firewall" constructed to bar the AFD from participating in governance must be, and will be, breached.

It is fundamental to the prosperity of Germany that the domestic policies of the AFD be implemented. Germany must come to its senses on immigration, energy, and spending if it is to overcome its current economic crisis.

However, part of that solution provided by the AFD calls for the abandonment of support for Ukraine, and renewing economic and political relationships with Russia as though Russia had never committed war crimes in Ukraine. But energy is not the only problem facing Europe and Germany in particular. Nor can that problem be solved merely by returning to the old regime of buying cheaper gas and oil from Russia. An abandonment of green madness must be the predicate for energy sanity. Restoration of nuclear facilities is essential, not just for the economy but for the long term implementation of sorely needed digital infrastructure, data centers and AI.

As indispensable to the future of Germany is the domestic policy of AFD, its foreign policy is equally destructive.

No thinking conservative, who has freed himself from the obsessions of the isolationists, can possibly support the AFD's foreign policy. The AFD would abandon Europe, the EU and NATO, repudiate American nukes and American troops, and slip twixt the sheets with Vladimir Putin.

Be advised.

[alexander_busek]

This is deliberate comedy, right? [...] Where is AfD going to find another 23% to form a government?

You're a comedian, right?

No single party has ever, on the federal level, won 50% or more of the seats in the Bundestag. (On the state level, I believe only the Bavarian CSU - in the 1970s - ever did that.) Thus, no party has ever had the luxury of forming a govt. without at least one coalition partner.

The BSW is showing signs of succumbing to the blandishments of the AfD.

Regards,

[alexander_busek]

No thinking conservative, who has freed himself from the obsessions of the isolationists, can possibly support the AFD's foreign policy.

Their foreign policy will evolve once they are in power on the federal level. Their anti-pan-European stance is something I can respect. Their slightly anti-American / decidedly anti-NATO and mildly pro-Russian attitudes are irrelevant on the state level; I think that they are maintained chiefly for "shock" value.

I believe that America could accomplish more with a somewhat skeptical and even disgruntled but resurgent Germany as a geo-political partner than a lax, decadent, post-Modern, pronoun-obsessed, and increasingly Muslim-infiltrated Germany.

Regards,

[Spktyr]

I think you are right, but the current German clown show of a government has backed them into a corner on energy and they absolutely are having shortages. They also refused to start building new LNG terminals for the US to start supplying them until far too late. The only people they can get energy from to fill in that increasingly widening gap in a useful short term time frame is Russia.

[srmanuel]

I’m not as familiar with the tactics used by German Elites with respect to the AfD as you, I believe there is nothing they won’t do to keep them from gaining any significant political power and to preserve their own political power.

It may sound silly, but setting fire the Reichstag and blaming it on the AfD is not a crazy idea and realistically could happen or something equivalent.

Is another Kristallnacht out of the question, maybe labeling Alice Weidel the same as Ernst Rohn, if you are going to set fire to the Reichstag why not burn down the AfD instead of Synagogues and kill off the opposition in the process.

[forYourChildrenVote4Bush]

The AfD’s 44% wasn’t the main issue the 5% threshold was. If BSW had stayed below 5%, AfD could have ended up with a majority of seats. BSW made it in, though, and while it’s left-wing, it also wants much stricter immigration, so it could support AfD on some issues. That could allow AfD to govern as a minority, meaning it would need support from other parties vote by vote. If that doesn’t work, another election could eventually be needed.

[nathanbedford]

I believe that America could accomplish more with a somewhat skeptical and even disgruntled but resurgent Germany as a geo-political partner than a lax, decadent, post-Modern, pronoun-obsessed, and increasingly Muslim-infiltrated Germany.

My comments were, of course, conditioned on the AFD acquiring state power so that it could effect international action.

I hardly think that AFD, with its penchant for attachment to Russia and antipathy toward American involvement in Europe could prove a more viable "geo-political partner." In any event, the description of Germany is to a large part a recital of MAGA bromides of little current relevance, at least not to Germany of the past few years since the invasion of Ukraine.

Indeed, the description of Germany could well be applied to America, no doubt even more so after we see the results of the upcoming election in November.

[FLT-bird]

I believe that America could accomplish more with a somewhat skeptical and even disgruntled but resurgent Germany as a geo-political partner than a lax, decadent, post-Modern, pronoun-obsessed, and increasingly Muslim-infiltrated Germany.

Yep. And honestly, their position of wanting US Troops out of Germany is a position many of us share. Its long past time the Germans grew up and started providing for their own defense. I don't think there is any serious threat of Russia invading all of Europe - they're struggling enough with just Ukraine - but we can maintain a few forward deployed troops in Poland, Romania, etc. We don't need tens of thousands in Germany.

[alexander_busek]

Thank you for your measured response!

My comments were, of course, conditioned on the AFD acquiring state power so that it could effect international action.

The AfD has now won a decisive electoral victory in Sachsen-Anhalt - but outside of the "Neuen Bundesländer" (the former G.D.R.), the AfD will not, in the foreseeable future, rise above the level of being a mid-tier political force.

If the Sachsen-Anhaltinische AfD succeeds in proving itself (i.e., forming a workable coalition and actually governing competently for an entire legislative period), this could have electoral consequences in the western states, and might soon lead to cracks forming in the absurd and highly anti-democratic "Brandmauer" - but the old established parties will continue dominating the "Bundestag" at least in the medium term.

So any talk about acquiring power on the "federal level" is still purely hypothetical. But if and when the AfD does become a force to be reckoned with on the federal level, its antipathy towards the U.S. / NATO will likely be moderated.

The members of the AfD don't dislike America per se - they just see it as a force preventing them from completely withdrawing into their isolationist shell.

In Altländer like Baden-Württemberg (where I reside), power still rests firmly in the hands of the CDU/Green coalition. (Though I proudly note that a political fraction my wife and I helped found - named provocatively the GfD - did win two seats in our most-recent municipal election; sadly, my wife didn't quite make the cut.)

As a conservative, I rub my hands together with satisfaction as the once-proud SPD teeters on the brink of the 5% hurdle in multiple states, and chuckle at the fact that the FDP has virtually evaporated in all but three of the 16 states (and in no state does it share Regierungsverantwortung).

I hardly think that AFD, with its penchant for attachment to Russia and antipathy toward American involvement in Europe could prove a more viable "geo-political partner."

I respect - but do not share - your opinion. I'd rather have a dependable, grounded, if somewhat resentful or even sullen copilot sitting next to me in the cockpit than a sycophantic nincompoop. And don't be fooled! The AfDler are simply more vocal about their skepticism vis-à-vis the U.S./NATO than adherents of the other parties.

In any event, the description of Germany is to a large part a recital of MAGA bromides of little current relevance, at least not to Germany of the past few years since the invasion of Ukraine.

That smarts! Do you really think that I have fallen victim to "MAGA bromides?"

Nevertheless, I am intrigued! How would you then more-accurately describe the Zeitgeist in present-day Germany? I mean: Not what the perfumed princes of the "Altparteien" pronounce before TV cameras at their NATO conferences - but at the grass roots level? My experience has been that even the "blackest" (most-conservative) Germans have always harbored a secret antipathy to the U.S./NATO in their heart of hearts.

Regards,

[teeman8r]

in before the comparisons of AfD to the rise of naziism while the germans ignore the islamists that sided with, well, you know who.

[Redmen4ever]

Merz declares burning of the Bundestag due to AfD