"None shall pass."
"Alright. We'll call it a draw. "
Posted on 08/19/2026 1:27:53 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The Strait of Hormuz "will not be opened," Iranian warned on Tuesday, "Until the U.S. commitments in the memorandum—including lifting the blockade, releasing frozen assets, lifting oil sanctions, ending threats and military operations on all fronts, and the other conditions to which the U.S. committed—are implemented."
I guess that settles it — the Strait is firmly in the Islamic Republic's grip.
Not so fast.
On the flip side, President Donald Trump said earlier this week that the U.S. naval blockade against Iran "remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated."
Who's right? I guess the only way to tell is to try and figure out whether shipping is actually moving through Hormuz, and how much.
For that, let's go to CNN's David Goldman, who's been covering Gulf oil flows. Events there are moving so quickly that his headline a week ago was "The Trump administration claims oil is flowing normally again. There’s just one problem," but his Monday headline read "Wait… how much oil is actually leaving the Persian Gulf?" This morning, things had moved this much further: "Iran has lost significant control of the Strait of Hormuz."
While "both Iran and the United States have claimed the upper hand," Goldman wrote in his most recent report, "the competing rhetoric has caused considerable confusion and doubt."
“ At the moment, however, the evidence is clear: The United States, patrolling the strait with its navy, is gaining ground – and Iran is losing much of its control of the critical waterway."
Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, said this week that "It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait."
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
Iran’s so-called control over Hormuz is essentially its threat against commercial shipping, that’s all. She doesn’t have a total grip on the Strait. There is a grip but it’s not tight.
But Just because Tehran’s grip has loosened doesn’t mean Hormuz is truly open. Tankers still must take evasive measures like leaving their transponders off and avoiding Iranian waters.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said last week that oil flows out of the Gulf are back up to about 15 million barrels a day from the prewar 20 million. But that’s counting oil rerouted away from Hormuz and not just through Hormuz.
Schrodinger’s Strait
I guess the good news then is things can only get better? 6 ships through the strait today. Hard to do much worse. Iran has threatened attacks on US European allies, but do they even have the capacity for that?
RE: Iran has threatened attacks on US European allies, but do they even have the capacity for that?
Let’s say Iran acts on her threat, what then?
The article of NATO’s founding treaty that sets up collective defense is Article 5. It states that an armed attack against one member in Europe or North America is an attack against all, requiring each ally to help the country that was hit.
If a European country is attacked, that SHOULD trigger article 5. If even after this no NATO country will participates, then that should be the last straw, it’s time for the USA to get out of NATO.
“6 ships through the strait today”
...with their transponders on. The majority of the ships transiting the Strait do so along the corridors prescribed by the American Navy, with their transponders off. It is the current security protocol, to defend against Iranian drones and missiles.
Without being alerted by transponders, and no longer having effective radar monitoring, Iran cannot launch drones in response to ship movements, and must launch blindly, hoping to stumble upon a target.
"Alright. We'll call it a draw. "
> Schrodinger’s Strait <
Well played.
👍
How is our blockade working? Are the 15 million barrels going through the Persian Gulf carrying Iranian or Saudi and Gulf State oil? Are we stopping shipments of Iranian oil only? Are we stopping shipments of Iranian oil to China? I have heard that no one is stopping Chinese tankers.
Irrelevant for gas prices.
* Treasury intervention again (yen two week ago) in attempt save the United States Debt, keeping all essential retail prices high (paper money towards wheelbarrow status).
* Work sweat Millstones for the regular folks, way beyond wage proportions decades ago 🛑
* Stiff arm to the face, by the Federal Bond Debt. ✖️
> ...with their transponders on. <
Well, okay. Then I have to ask. What’s up with those six ships?
Why would they have their transponders on while everyone else is running dark?
Maybe it’s just me. But I’ve lost all understanding of what’s going on in this conflict.
We should have tons of mines. I recommend we just mine the hell out of that joint. Screw the Iranians. We can charge them millions every time those clowns want us to remove a mine.
Can we give the Strait a new name now that it’s technically a US territory? It sounds so stupid every time I read it, and it’s supposed to be the name of some Zoroastrian god. Kharg Island is still cool, though.
It was open before this whole debacle started.
It’s not a debacle. It’s a debacle for your Iranian friends.
Trump had said he was going to enforce a blockade. Not much of a blockade if some ships are going through.
Does the US know for sure if non transponder ships are friendly?
I say blow any and all ships in the Strait right out of the water.
>< Can we give the Strait a new name now that it’s technically a US territory? <
We should name it after our first president. But don’t use his last name. That’s already been used everywhere.
So just call it the George Strait.
🤠
Gas under 4 Dollars 💵 n all Suburban Philliy Gas stations now
when has the europee’n nations come to help us since this started?
Radar is over 100 year old technology. Why assume they're blind without radar? The Strait is narrow for a significant length. Very small, fiber optic drones can be sent to hunt for targets passively with infrared cameras, and an altitude of just 600 feet gives you a 30+ mile horizon.
And that's assuming their ally China doesn't see any interest in providing them satellite intelligence:
China has achieved real-time maritime satellite intelligence through AI-powered low-earth orbit (LEO) satellites and persistent geosynchronous synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) systems. In 2022, researchers demonstrated that an AI-equipped remote sensing satellite could automatically detect and track the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier in real time, processing over 200 high-definition frames per second to identify targets despite cloud cover.
China successfully tracked a moving maritime target from 35,800 km in geosynchronous orbit, a breakthrough that allows as few as three satellites to provide continuous, 24/7 global surveillance of naval forces, overcoming the limitations of low-orbit passes.
The PLA utilizes the Yaogan series (including Jianbing-8 ELINT satellites) and the new Liaowang-1 tracking ship to monitor maritime targets and missile launches.
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