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As the Tide Turns Against Putin, Beware the Drowning Man
Foreign Policy ^ | 07/02/2026 | Peter Frankopan,

Posted on 07/03/2026 7:26:38 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

These are tricky times for Russian President Vladimir Putin. The “special military operation” he launched against Ukraine in 2022, intended to last a few days until a puppet regime in Kyiv could be installed, has now gone on longer than both the Soviet fight against Nazi Germany and all of World War I. His forces have long ceased making significant gains on the battlefield; some data even suggest that Russian forces lost territory in April and May. What gains the Russians have made have come at enormous cost: Last month, Anna Keast-Butler, the director of British intelligence agency GCHQ, cited new intelligence indicating that Russian war deaths had likely reached almost half a million; various Western sources put total Russian casualties at significantly more than 1 million.

In relative terms, the attrition losses are even more staggering. By some accounts, Russia is now incurring eight men killed or seriously wounded for every one lost by Ukraine. With average monthly casualties running at more than 30,000 this year, the Russian army is struggling to replace them with fresh recruits. It is offering sign-up bonuses as high as $80,000, and up to $140,000 in debt relief to encourage more men to enlist.

Those who do have little to look forward to. According to Russian military bloggers, the average life expectancy of a new recruit—from arrival at a training ground to death in a combat zone—lies somewhere between 10 days and three weeks. Once they are sent onto the battlefield, Russian fighters survive an average of 20 to 35 minutes. Much of the reason for this is the extraordinary shift in battlefield technology and tactics—in particular, the ways that drones have become the primary killing machines in this war, with stark implications for the future of combat in other parts of the world.

(Excerpt) Read more at foreignpolicy.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Russia; Ukraine
KEYWORDS: 2022; 202607; ceaucescutreatment; nato; papertiger; pootindoofus; putin; putinpuffers; putinswar; putinthewarpig; quagmire; russiancasualties; russiansuicide; russiaweaker; vladtheimploder

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1 posted on 07/03/2026 7:26:38 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
"...Beware the Drowning Man..."

There is always a drowning man somewhere.

2 posted on 07/03/2026 7:28:27 PM PDT by rlmorel (Factio Communistica Sinensis Delenda Est)
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To: rlmorel
In relative terms, the attrition losses are even more staggering. By some accounts, Russia is now incurring eight men killed or seriously wounded for every one lost by Ukraine.

What a load! Why do the Russians give the Ukrainians 1000 dead bodies in exchange for 40 dead Russians?

The lying propaganda is pretty thick here.

3 posted on 07/03/2026 7:33:31 PM PDT by kiryandil (Democraps are gay-Islamic-race-communists )
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To: rlmorel

True dat.


4 posted on 07/03/2026 7:36:03 PM PDT by sauropod (Make sure Satan has to climb over a lot of Scripture to get to you. John MacArthur Ne supra crepidam)
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To: kiryandil

“Kiev in 3 weeks!”

L


5 posted on 07/03/2026 7:38:15 PM PDT by Lurker ( Peaceful coexistence with the Left is not possible. Stop pretending that it is. LOL l)
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To: Lurker
“Kiev in 3 weeks!”

"Iran in 4 days!"

6 posted on 07/03/2026 7:39:54 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Israel über alles.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Russia is on the verge of collapse.
One more push by Ukraine should do it.

Then tomorrow:

Ukraine is on the verge of collapse.
One more push by Russia should do it.

It’s nauseating, a repeat of the stupidity and butchery of WW1.
Just on a smaller scale.


7 posted on 07/03/2026 7:41:47 PM PDT by Leaning Right
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To: kiryandil

“Why do the Russians give the Ukrainians 1000 dead bodies in exchange for 40 dead Russians?

The lying propaganda is pretty thick here.”

ROTFLMAO!

Russia dead: 500k
Ukraine dead: 150k


8 posted on 07/03/2026 7:46:04 PM PDT by TexasGator (1-1i11'./1)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

RE: “Iran in 4 days!”

Never heard any Trump official (or Trump himself ) say that.


9 posted on 07/03/2026 7:46:32 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

In other news today, some report Putin may hit (bomb) the factories in Poland making drones for Ukraine … interesting times


10 posted on 07/03/2026 7:46:47 PM PDT by 11th_VA ("I got him before he got me.“ - President Trump)
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To: kiryandil

“What a load! Why do the Russians give the Ukrainians 1000 dead bodies in exchange for 40 dead Russians?

The lying propaganda is pretty thick here.”


Russia losing 8 troops for every 1 Ukranian soldier killed as army casualties skyrocket: report

https://nypost.com/2026/07/02/world-news/russia-losing-8-troops-for-every-1-ukraine-solider-killed-report/


11 posted on 07/03/2026 7:49:48 PM PDT by TexasGator (1-1i11'./1)
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To: SeekAndFind
OK, four to six weeks then.

https://x.com/i/grok/share/b81ee1366c5c46eca5f05e2be78da38b

And here we are, 18 weeks and counting.

12 posted on 07/03/2026 7:50:19 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Israel über alles.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

“And here we are, 18 weeks and counting.”

We are not getting 1,000 a day killed like your Russian buddies.


13 posted on 07/03/2026 7:52:20 PM PDT by TexasGator (1-1i11'./1)
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To: TexasGator
We are not getting 1,000 a day killed like your Russian buddies.

You sure it's not a million a day?

Maybe two million!

14 posted on 07/03/2026 7:53:48 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Israel über alles.)
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To: Leaning Right
Wrong war.

Wrong lesson, even if drawn on the wrong war.


15 posted on 07/03/2026 7:54:20 PM PDT by nathanbedford (Attack, repeat, attack! - Bull Halsey)
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To: 11th_VA

> Putin may hit (bomb) the factories in Poland <

Putin can’t be that stupid (or can he?). Such an attack on Poland could trigger a NATO intervention.

We should also consider a false flag operation. I can think of more than one organization that would love to drag NATO into the Russia/Ukraine war.

As you noted 11th VA, these are interesting times indeed.


16 posted on 07/03/2026 7:55:39 PM PDT by Leaning Right
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Silly reply. Grow up.


17 posted on 07/03/2026 7:58:15 PM PDT by TexasGator (1-1i11'./1)
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To: nathanbedford

I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree on this one. WW1 started over a relatively minor issue. But arrogant leaders on each side decided to push it too far. And so the whole thing spiraled out of control, and into a bloody mess.

With no innocent hands on either side.

I see roughly the same thing with the current Russia/Ukraine conflict.

Of course, your mileage may vary.
And I respect that.


18 posted on 07/03/2026 8:02:11 PM PDT by Leaning Right
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To: Leaning Right

I fail to see how Ukraine pushed it too far.


19 posted on 07/03/2026 8:06:19 PM PDT by TexasGator (1-1i11'./1)
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To: TexasGator; All

The last body exchange was Russia returning 20,000 Ukrainian corpses, and ukraine sending back 600 Russian dead.

A consistent ratio with previously reported exchanges

https://www.timesnownews.com/world/russia-claims-over-20000-ukrainian-soldiers-bodies-returned-reveals-battlefield-death-toll-article-154914831

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg7ed4rp7x5o

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/06/18/russia-and-ukraine-exchange-remains-of-over-550-fallen-soldiers-a93047


20 posted on 07/03/2026 8:07:23 PM PDT by Reverend Wright ( Anschluss now !)
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