Incumbent Thomas Massie Maintains Slight Lead Over Challenger Ed Gallrein

Big Data Poll ^ | 5/15/2026 | Richard Baris

[Redmen4ever]

Massie leads among likely voters by only 50.6 to 49.4 percent; well within the margin of error.

---

TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Kentucky
KEYWORDS: edgallrein; kentucky; ky4cd; repprimary; thomasmassie; tommassie

[Redmen4ever]

Massie is the incumbent, first elected in 2012. He is a gadfly small "l" libertarian. He is most famous (or notorious) for forcing a vote on releasing the Epstein files. He has also refused to support the GOP budget (because of his opposition to continued deficit spending). Gallrein is a more dependable vote. He is a mainstream Republic, and is supported by President Trump (and a ton of outside money).

The primary is on Tuesday.

Statistically, this race looks like a toss up. The outcome may be decided by GOTV (get-out-the-vote).

For all polls of this race, see:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/house/republican-primary/2026/kentucky/district-4

[JessieHelmsJr]

Massie a democRAT whore!!

[factmart]

He will get lose big time Tuesday.

I’m tired of Rand Paul, too!

[gibsonguy]

And the rats will save him. They will come out in droves to stick it Trump on Tuesday.

[bray]

As if a poll can be within a half a point. Who are they trying to kid.

[Redmen4ever]

Kentucky holds closed primaries. That is, you have to be a registered member of the party to vote in that party’s primary.

True, some people who really are Democrats could be registered as Republicans (in order to influence our selection of candidate); however, polls should reflect whatever influence they have on the outcomes of our primaries.

[tennmountainman]

For an incumbent that’s a bad poll.

[gibsonguy]

The TDS is so strong among the rats I could see legions of these idiots registering as Republicans just so they can vote for Massie.