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Escaping the Hormuz Trap: The 70-year history of oil transit crises suggests engineering will prove more effective than diplomacy.
Foreign Policy ^ | 04/27/2026 | John B. Bowlus

Posted on 04/27/2026 7:59:42 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Barring regime change in Iran or a durable diplomatic resolution to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the West is now facing its most fundamental challenge to its energy security since the Arab-Israeli wars of the 1950s, ’60s, and ’70s. To escape the Hormuz trap—a crisis in oil, gas, and petrochemicals transit that will slowly degrade the global economy over the months and years to come—the West must revisit a familiar pattern.

For nearly three decades during those wars, Arab states seeking to pressure Israel and its Western backers repeatedly weaponized Middle Eastern oil transit chokepoints by blocking canals and sabotaging pipelines. Each time, Western oil companies, regional states, and European financiers engineered around the disruption by deploying larger tankers and building new pipelines.

The West and its allies can replicate that logic today by building new energy corridors to the Mediterranean to connect European demand to Gulf supply and deny Iran its chokepoint leverage. The first step should be restoring the Iraq-Turkey pipeline system and developing a Trans-Arabian energy route linking Gulf production to the Mediterranean coast.

The West’s strategy to counter oil supply disruption was first established during the 1956 Suez crisis, when Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser blocked the Suez Canal—and Syria sabotaged Iraq Petroleum Co. pipelines—in response to a joint military attack by Israel, Britain, and France on Egypt. The United States, along with Western Hemisphere producers, particularly Venezuela, made up the shortfall by redirecting supplies to Europe, while Anglo-American oil companies began commissioning larger tankers, making the longer Cape of Good Hope route commercially viable for the first time.

U.S., British, and regional governments convened within months to discuss six competing pipeline proposals, including an ambitious scheme to carry Kuwaiti and Iranian oil through Iraq to a Turkish terminal.

(Excerpt) Read more at foreignpolicy.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; Iran; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 1956; blockade; capeofgoodhope; energy; gamalabdelnasser; gulfstates; hormuz; iran; kuwait; maritimesecurity; nasser; oil; pipelines; qatar; saudiarabia; shipping; straitofhormuz; suezcanal; suezcrisis; tankers; turkey

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1 posted on 04/27/2026 7:59:42 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

One Proposed Idea to Bypass the Strait of Hormuz While the Naval Blockade is Ongoing
2 posted on 04/27/2026 8:05:43 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Instead of truck build a pipeline.


3 posted on 04/27/2026 8:11:49 PM PDT by TonyM (Score Event)
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To: SeekAndFind

4 posted on 04/27/2026 8:16:14 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

The US Navy has two tankers that could move oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Iranians are unlikely to sink tankers that they own.

One tanker was shown by CNN as it was allegedly transferring oil to another tanker.

This tanker was said to be able to carry 1.7 milion barrels.

The two tankers could be used to transport UAE oil out of the Gulf. Kuwaiti oil could be sent to UAE by other tankers, either for UAE use or for further transport by one of the two US Navy tankers.

The mere idea might send oil prices downward, saving American drivers money.


5 posted on 04/27/2026 8:21:11 PM PDT by Brian Griffin (Ask your Congressman to tax tariff refunds at 100% & rebate ~$600 to each insured vehicle owner)
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To: Brian Griffin

either that, or everything gets blown to hell


6 posted on 04/27/2026 8:25:25 PM PDT by MarlonRando
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To: SeekAndFind

Dumb. Somebody has no idea how many trucks that would take. It would be insane.


7 posted on 04/27/2026 8:26:52 PM PDT by Sequoyah101 (Opinions and belly buttons, everybody has one and they get to show them if they want to.)
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To: Sequoyah101

Agreed on that one!

These alternatives also do not seriously enough account for missile attacks on new or existing pipelines, and other infrastructure.


8 posted on 04/27/2026 8:41:50 PM PDT by Paul R. (Old Viking saying: "Never be more than 3 steps away from your weapon ... or a Uriah Heep song!" ;-))
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To: SeekAndFind

It would take about 47 trucks to fill a large tanker.


9 posted on 04/27/2026 8:43:39 PM PDT by kvanbrunt2
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To: SeekAndFind

A new canal via Dubai has been considered...only 15-20 miles in northern Dubai


10 posted on 04/27/2026 8:47:29 PM PDT by chiller ( Davy Crockett said:"Be sure you're right, then go ahead." I'll go ahead.)
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To: kvanbrunt2

i think it is actually 47 times 42 for barrels to gallons. 1,981 trucks


11 posted on 04/27/2026 8:47:47 PM PDT by kvanbrunt2
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To: Sequoyah101

Dumb. Somebody has no idea how many trucks that would take. It would be insane. about 2000 trucks to fill a 500000 barrel tanker


12 posted on 04/27/2026 8:49:08 PM PDT by kvanbrunt2
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To: chiller

RE: A new canal via Dubai has been considered...only 15-20 miles in northern Dubai

The only problem with that is Iran can still shoot missiles at it.


13 posted on 04/27/2026 9:04:34 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

I like the pipeline method. The energy to transport the oil would be lower and getting it into the Med is more direct.


14 posted on 04/27/2026 9:29:24 PM PDT by jonrick46 (The DemonKKKrat Marxists ride Unicorns on their fantasy farms.)
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To: SeekAndFind

There are already pipelines there. And yes, Iran destroyed the ports.

They even destroyed Saudi and Omani water facilities. That was day 1.

The pipeline was built for the best interest of the constructor of said pipeline.. the emirs.

The UAE will continue operations, at a premium. They built them.

If the UAE and the Saudi royalty could make more money doing something, they would have already done it.

A far as trucks SA has the world’s largest fleet already with that “Line” project.


15 posted on 04/27/2026 9:37:46 PM PDT by Celerity
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To: SeekAndFind

M ake
I ran
P ersia
A gain


16 posted on 04/27/2026 9:38:41 PM PDT by lightman (Beat the Philly fraud machine the Amish did onest, ja? Nein, zweimal they did already!)
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To: SeekAndFind
#13: "The only problem with that is Iran can still shoot missiles at it."

True. However, the days of Iran shooting missiles at anything are over. There is a new sheriff in town, and the past is over. No more business as usual.

Israel is cooking up plans for the coup de grâce. Things appear quiet, but the plans are being worked on. When the shooting starts again, it will be with the objective of seizing the uranium and destroying what remains of the labs. Eyes on the prize.

17 posted on 04/27/2026 9:38:59 PM PDT by Governor Dinwiddie ( O give thanks unto the Lord, for He is gracious, and his mercy endures forever. — Psalm 106)
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To: Governor Dinwiddie

MIPA!


18 posted on 04/27/2026 9:51:56 PM PDT by lightman (Beat the Philly fraud machine the Amish did onest, ja? Nein, zweimal they did already!)
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To: kvanbrunt2

Assuming 30 tonnes per truck, ten thousand truck loads to top up a VLCC.


19 posted on 04/27/2026 10:30:02 PM PDT by punchamullah
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To: TonyM
Instead of truck build a pipeline.

Or use train cars. A lot of oil passes through western Washington State everyday by train.

20 posted on 04/27/2026 10:41:40 PM PDT by rexthecat
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