Posted on 04/08/2026 8:05:49 AM PDT by Twotone
European countries, after the Second World War, came to a painful but profound conclusion: if they wanted to stop centuries of bloodletting among themselves, they had to make war materially irrational.
The answer they found was not idealism alone, but interdependence. Trade. Shared markets. Shared interests.
Over time, that logic helped give birth to what became the European Union. As the EU notes in its official history of postwar integration, the European Coal and Steel Community was created so that no single country could build the weapons of war against the others as in the past.
Established by the Treaty of Paris in 1951, it became a foundational step in Europe’s long march toward integration. The theory was simple. Countries that are deeply tied to one another economically are less likely to destroy each other militarily.
For a time, some in the Middle East believed a version of that logic could eventually apply to Iran.
The argument was always that commerce could moderate Tehran. That trade, investment, business links, and human ties would slowly pull the Iranian regime toward a more rational regional posture. If not friendship, then at least restraint. If not trust, then predictability.
That theory now lies in ruins.
The Iranian regime has shown the region and the world that it does not behave like a normal state guided by economic self-interest, strategic patience, or even basic logic.
One of the clearest examples is the UAE. The very country Iran targeted most aggressively is also its second biggest trading partner in the world after China. Bilateral trade has been put at around $27 billion.
This is not a marginal relationship. It is central. And it goes beyond trade statistics. Dubai alone has long been home to roughly 400,000 Iranians, while thousands of Iranian traders and firms have operated there for years.
Older but widely cited estimates put the number of Iranian companies and trading firms registered in Dubai at around 8,000. That is not just commerce. That is social depth, human depth, and economic depth.
An Emirati official recently described the UAE as the lung through which Iran breathed when sanctions suffocated it. The phrase is harsh, but it is not inaccurate. And yet, even that was not enough to restrain Tehran.
On a side note, the UAE deserves credit for its defense readiness and professionalism in intercepting 95 percent of the Iranian attacks, and the same goes for all GCC countries.
That is the point many still fail to grasp. Iran did not simply attack an adversary. It struck at one of the very environments that had made its own survival easier. It undermined one of the few regional relationships that continued to offer it trade, access, connectivity, and room to maneuver.
In doing so, it sent a chilling message to every capital in the Gulf and beyond: no amount of economic engagement can guarantee rational conduct from this regime.
This is why the old argument that trade can tame Iran has suffered a devastating blow. Iran’s behavior suggests that its economy, development, trade, and long-term prosperity rank very low on its hierarchy of priorities.
Ideology and revolutionary impulse still dominate. This is also why Tehran appears so full of contradictions. It is not only in conflict with the world. In many ways, it is in conflict with itself.
The Iranian regime has shown the region and the world that it does not behave like a normal state guided by economic self-interest, strategic patience, or even basic logic.
Salman Al-Ansari
Iranian officials now talk about the need for the region to review its security relations after the war. They signal, directly or indirectly, that American bases should not remain in the Gulf. But this argument collapses under its own contradictions.
GCC states committed not to allow offensive operations from their airspace or territory. Saudi Arabia, for example, was attacked despite not hosting a single American base.
What it has are defense partnerships, military training relationships, and routine cooperation with friendly countries to help intercept missiles and drones. That is called self-defense, not aggression.
So Tehran’s message is both dishonest and revealing. The damage Iran has done is therefore not only military or diplomatic. It is reputational, strategic, and long term. Trust has been shattered, perhaps for years.
And once a state proves that even deep trade ties, business dependence, and large expatriate communities are not enough to moderate its conduct, regional countries will draw the obvious conclusion: this is not a regime that can be safely banked on, accommodated, or read through normal state behavior.
Europe built peace through interdependence because its states ultimately chose reason over impulse. Iran has just reminded the Middle East that it has chosen the opposite.
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“You can’t serve a Writ on a rat.”
Interesting article.
Thanks for posting
Libertarians often repeat the line “when goods are not crossing borders, armies are”, as though free trade between nations will automatically prevent wars. For one thing, that leaves them to explain civil wars, where there previously were no borders and thus goods could travel tariff-free, not to mention the innumerable wars fought between nations with trade relations favorable to both sides (e.g. the Ribbentrop-Molotov aka Hitler-Stalin non-aggression pact was economically beneficial to both Germany and the Soviet Union since Germany got raw materials and the USSR manufactured goods (and their blueprints), but that didn’t stop the bloodiest front in the history of modern warfare from taking place 2 years later).
Blatantly misleading. We have over 2,000 American personnel located in Saudi Arabia; Prince Sultan Air Base was struck by Iranian drones and missiles during the recent conflict precisely because we had aircraft and other equipment housed there.
But you can subpoena a ham sandwich.
President Trump's graciously bestowing a two-week fire pause on Iran will not enable the regime to measurably bolster its war-making potential; such a brief interlude suffices hardly for it to lick its wounds.
However, it might help the internal opposition to gain traction.
Regards,
“Nothing emboldens sin so more than mercy’’.- Shakespeare.
Keep the pressure on Iran with the assurance of the carrot.
Regards.
6 GIs dead, 300 wounded, billions spent on what? The destruction of Iranian Air Force, navy, and 1st level of leadership.
The end result? Islamic nut jobs are till in power, Tehran is now being allowed to charge $1m per ship to transit what once was a free navigation right of way under international law. Drones and ballistic missiles are still flying into Israel, as of today, and we don’t have access to their nuclear material.
Thanks Trump. Please shut your pie hole and let the adults work the problem. It’s time you went on a long vacation.
Are you a paid shill for the left? or just an activist.
Everything you say sounds just like them.............
The “Trade for Peace Theory” collapsed a long time before WWII.
Before World War I, many Europeans believed that deep economic interdependence and trade would make war impossible, a concept popularized by figures like Norman Angell. While trade brought economic prosperity, it failed to stop the 1914 conflict because nationalism and political alliances outweighed economic incentives.
It won’t work any better with Iran.
I believe it was no less a prophet than Jesus Christ who said there would always be wars and rumors of war, yet some pursue foolish theories to prevent war.
The USSR and the Third Reich were huge trading partners until they weren’t.
After Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion eviscerated Iran's air force, naval assets, etc., these two weeks will serve essentially to allow the sting of defeat to sink in.
Imagine yourself getting a root canal treatment - in the middle of which your dentist cheerfully informs you that he'll have to disappear for a few hours in order to play a round of golf. So you get to lie there, in the chair, with exposed nerves, until he gets back.
The United States and Israel will continue to monitor the situation on the ground conscientiously. Any unexplained movements of troops, any convoys of matériel, will raise alarms, and be immediately interdicted.
Regards,
Obama paid $1.5 Billion in cold, hard cash for a 5 year ‘Hudna’, which he thought would get him into another Democratic term for the Presidency.
Great Movie!
Why do people think Iran attacking the UAE is some shocking development? They host a giant US base from which we attacked Iran. Same for Qatar that has a giant US base.
They wouldn’t have been hit if they didn’t allow us to launch our attack from their soil.
If this is the magical childlike thinking in DC, this war won’t end anytime soon.
We didn’t have a base in Saudi Arabia, but somehow the Iranian missiles blew up American planes when they hit the Saudi base.... and they freely allowed our planes and Israeli planes to use their airspace.
No. That only drags the process out and allows the mullahs to fight another day.
It has to end now. Fighting a war halfway is worse than not fighting at all.
“In war there is no second place prize for runner up’’.- General Omar Bradly.
GFY.
L
Th Arabs were always pretending they could live with the Mullahs in Tehran, thus maintaining a semblance of peace between them, while the Mullahs grew their tentacles via proxies across the region, holding off bolder demands on the Arabs till they had the nukes to back up any demands. Recent events have caused the Mullahs to “pull the trigger” (missiles and drones) against the Arabs at a time when they, the Mullahs, are having their war engines decimated. Now the Arabs have seen what the Mullahs really think of them.
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