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Posted on 04/07/2026 3:34:48 PM PDT by MeanWestTexan
While Washington has been trying to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero with heavy sanctions for years, these sanctions have been thwarted by a key factor: China. A country that has injected billions of dollars into Tehran's economy with the massive purchase of Iranian oil and has become the main pillar of the Islamic Republic's financial sustainability.
At the same time, ideas such as acquisition of Iranian oil by Donald Trump have been proposed, which is more than practical, it is a reflection of geopolitical competition with Beijing.
«maximum pressure policy » America is designed with the aim of completely cutting off Iran's oil exports, but today's reality of the energy market shows that this goal has never been fully achieved. Two recent reports from the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg provide a clear picture of reality: on the one hand, China has become the most important economic breathing path of the Islamic Republic in the middle of the war, and on the other hand, Donald Trump proposes ideas that More than operational, they have a geopolitical and even propaganda aspect.
According to the Wall Street Journal, China has become the main buyer of Iranian oil in recent years and now absorbs almost all of Iran's oil production. Estimates show that Beijing bought about 1.4 million barrels of oil daily from Iran in 2025; A figure that includes more than 80% of Iran's oil exports.
This volume of purchases has created tens of billions of dollars in annual income for Tehran and has actually formed the main pillar of the economic survival of the Islamic Republic in the conditions of sanctions.
This business is not just a simple buyer-seller relationship, but is built on a complex network to circumvent sanctions. The use of small Chinese banks with limited connections to the global financial system, the creation of hedge companies in Hong Kong, and the operation of private refineries known as «t-pat» are among the tools that have kept this cycle active.
Along with this, methods such as falsifying documents, changing the origin of cargoes and transferring oil from ship to ship at sea have helped to hide this business.
The key point is that without this network, Iran could hardly maintain its oil exports. A think tank analyst in Washington emphasizes that China «is Iran's main partner in circumventing sanctions and without this support, it would be very difficult for Tehran to continue the current situation in the war crisis.
However, this cooperation is not without cost to China either. Unlike previous years when Iranian oil was sold with heavy discounts, recent market developments and war have reduced this advantage.
The Bloomberg report points out that Iran's oil, which used to be considered a cheap and sanctioned source for China, is now in some cases even traded at a higher price than expected. In other words, China remains the main buyer, but the terms of the transaction are no longer as one-sided and profitable as before.
In the meantime, the ideas proposed by Donald Trump have also attracted a lot of attention. He suggested that America can take Iran's oil «» and sell it itself; An idea that, according to him, can both generate income and increase America's power against China. Trump even said clearly: «If the choice is mine, I will pick up the oil and keep it».
But closer examination shows that these ideas face serious obstacles. First, in terms of international law, the appropriation of the natural resources of another country without a legal framework faces fundamental challenges and can have far-reaching consequences at the global level.
Second, operationally, the control of Iran's oil infrastructure requires a large military presence, heavy financial costs and long-term conflict in the region; A scenario that does not seem very realistic considering the opposition of American public opinion to the continuation of the war.
Even alternative options such as seizing Iranian oil shipments at sea have their own limitations. These actions can escalate military tensions, destabilize the global oil market, and lead to chain reactions from other actors, especially China.
Indeed, what emerges from combining the two reports is a double picture. On the one hand, China, as Iran's most important economic partner, plays a key role in maintaining the financial power of the Islamic Republic even during the war with America and Israel; A role that has not only helped to continue oil exports, but also provided access to foreign exchange earnings and financing of various activities. On the other hand, the United States, despite its extensive sanctions instruments, faces limitations in practice that prevent its objectives from being fully realized.
In this framework, threats such as «selling Iranian oil by the US» represent an attempt to redefine the levers of pressure in competition with China rather than an implementation plan. Energy here is not just an economic resource, but a geopolitical tool that can affect the balance of power globally.
Finally, as long as China continues to buy Iranian oil, the sanctions structure will not be fully effective. This relationship, although it also brings costs for Beijing, is still considered one of the most important factors affecting the economic sustainability of the Islamic Republic and allows Tehran to maintain an important part of its oil income even in the middle of a full-scale war. slow.
On the other hand, ideas such as the acquisition or sale of Iranian oil by the United States, at least in the current conditions of the international system, are more than an operational plan, a reflection of the greater competition of powers over energy, its transmission routes and curbing China's influence. are.
In this way, the main contradiction of the crisis becomes clearer: on the one hand, the Islamic Republic is under intense pressure from the United States, but on the other hand, as long as it sells about 1.6 million barrels of oil per day, it still has a vital resource to survive against this pressure.
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Anyone who would pick Xi over Trump doesn't know Trump or Xi.
China has huge strategic reserves. About 1.2B barrels between their govt/commercial reserve storage. And at least a significant portion of China’s oil is still is being allowed to pass through the SOH. If we wanted to get China’s attention, we should have destroyed the terminals on Kharg Island weeks ago, or the pipelines/pumping stations on the mainland. At this point, China is barely touching their strategic reserves.
Kharg island relies on offshore floating offload points, not even docking (supertankers are too big).
Some modern mines that can be turned on-and-off can easily shut it down without us going ashore, and picking who gets oil.
Idea: Seize Chinese purchased oil being shipped from Iran, in partial repayment of the $1+ trillion that China still owes the US deriving from the unpaid debt of the 1911 Hukuang Railway Bonds.
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