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Posted on 03/25/2026 10:49:07 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Has there been a coup in Iran?
If there has been, it has been perpetrated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which is striking a defiant tone against the United States and Israel. That's a real problem.
"Nobody knows who to talk to," President Donald Trump said Tuesday at the White House, describing what he portrayed as both chaos and opportunity inside Iran’s leadership. "But we're actually talking to the right people, and they want to make a deal so badly."
His remarks come as the U.S. claims it is engaged in talks with a "top" Iranian figure, even as Tehran publicly denies negotiations are taking place.
The question now is not just whether talks are happening, but whether anyone in Tehran has the authority to deliver. With U.S.-Israel strikes on senior Iranian leadership and growing internal fractures, Iran appears to be operating less like a centralized theocracy and more like a wartime system run by overlapping power centers, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) at its core.
That's an interesting question, and it may well cast a shadow over President Trump's efforts to make a deal. There's the old problem, of course, in dealing with the theocratic regime of the mullahs, in that they lie as reflexively as they breathe and anything they say can be presumed to be unreliable.
There's little reason to think that an Iran under the thumb of the IRGC would be any more forthcoming.
Read More: Breaking: Trump Says Iran Has Agreed to Give Up Its Nuclear Weapons Fantasy
Report: Trump Sends 15-Point Peace Plan to Iran, Wants Monthlong Ceasefire
What's more, the IRGC has perhaps more influence in Iran at the moment than any other group.
Across intelligence assessments and recent reporting, one conclusion is consistent: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has emerged as the dominant force in Iran’s political system.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies Washington, D.C., think tank, said the current moment is accelerating a long-standing trend.
"No doubt both the 12-Day war and this current conflict have trimmed the commanding heights of the Islamic Republic's political and military leadership," he said. "But it has also expedited the trend lines inherent in Iranian politics, which is the dominance of the security forces and the ascendance of the IRGC."
That wouldn't be the best outcome. The mullahs and their civilian minions may well have some survival instincts; a deal that allows them to retire with their Swiss bank accounts may be more palatable to them than to the IRGC, who, as I've noted before, may be more inclined to go down swinging.
"Yes, there is more IRGC control over the state than ever before, but the state is weaker than ever before and more of a national security rump state than ever before," he said.
"It shouldn't particularly preoccupy Washington, who is and isn't offering negotiations," Ben Taleblu added. "The preeminent preoccupation of Washington has to be working toward a military win at a political win, and that does not come by working with the IRGC, but actually beating them on the battlefield and supporting the forces most arrayed against them in Iran, which are the Iranian people."
That's the best option. Iran has to be defeated on the battlefield, which is already happening. It's not possible to make a deal with people who are not dealing honestly, and the current regime in Iran is notorious for not dealing honestly with, well, anyone.
That's not to say the USA should become involved in any nation-building in Iran. Circumstances indicate that it won't be necessary in any case; that's properly the job of the Iranian people, and they seem more than ready to get cracking.
And so events in Iran are still unfolding. Stay tuned.
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The IRGC is the most powerful institution in Iran The IRGC controls:
Military Power
- Iran’s missile program
- Drone production
- Cyber operations
- The Quds Force (foreign operations)
- Internal repression (via Basij)
The IRGC owns or controls:
- construction conglomerates
- telecoms
- ports
- smuggling networks
- oil and gas infrastructure
- banking channels
It is essentially a state within a state.
In crises, the IRGC becomes even more dominant because:
- it controls the missiles
- it controls the proxies
- it controls the borders
- it controls internal security
- it controls the economy under sanctions
The civilian government becomes almost irrelevant.
In practice:
- If the IRGC turned on the Supreme Leader, he would fall.
- If the Supreme Leader turned on the IRGC, he HIMSELF would fall faster.
So yes — the real power is whoever commands the IRGC. Unless the USA is talking to WHOEVER controls the IRGC, we are wasting our time.
I don’t think it’s a coup. I think it’s the mask coming off. I think they’ve ALWAYS been in charge, but they let the ayatollah LOOK like he was in control.
Who is leading the IRGC? I think Trump stating he is negotiating with someone, plants a seed of doubt in everyones mind and sows the seeds of paranoia. This could lead to internal purging of each faction.
It’s possible, similar to the USSR hardliners and China now.
Hence, the answer is to eliminate the IRGC just as we eliminated the SS and the Nazi party in Germany. Might not be too hard, given how much the Iranian pople hate the IRGC and the many ways to finger the really bad ones.
It’s a good strategy to thin the herd.
Trump said he had the same question.
He demanded proof that they were in power. The provided him with the proof. Trump is satisfied that he is speaking to the right people.
The right thing to do as an American is support the Commander in Chief on this, IMHO. Trump took the chance to do the right thing for Americans and American interests by standing up to Iran. He did the same in Venezuela. This is on Trumps shoulders to make the call, and the deal.
No. I believe the Gayatollah is in complete control of everything!
Good that they’ve been identified...
Trump lives rent free in Iranian heads.
Good summary. But by definition, whoever the leader of the free world is talking to IS the leader of Iran. Do a thought experiment where the US government is decaptiated and 80% of Congress is wiped out. Everyone left name would claim to represent the US federal government, as would dozens of military leaders, former politicians, and others (Bill and Hillary for example). IRGC is a parallel shadow of the Iranian military so there’s 2X the confusion and twice as much to exploit.
Best case scenario would be an Iranian regular army General to end up in charge.
The Basij. They need to be identified. Every one of them. The bad thing is there are too many and trials will be too time consuming when a new government is in the making. A final solution with no trials would be best if it can be done quickly. Prison terms would be costly and they could always return. Strike while the iron is hot and all will be forgiven. Just don’t let it drag on.
It wouldn’t be a coup, anyway, rather it would be stepping into a vacant space.
Unless there is someone who can control the IRGC,or the herd is seriously thinned of the more militantly religious or vicious members, there will be a long struggle ahead for Trump or the people themselves.
When I was paying attention back 47 years ago, it was already clear that the IRGC was very business oriented and committed to the Mullahs. In fact one issue is that they have been using much electricity to produce Bitcoin for their coffers. They have needed so much power it is reported they have cut off electricity to hospitals and parts of cities from time to time. Iran and many countries in that region are suffering from drought, and there is talk of moving Tehran to a shoreline where desalination plants can be built. Move ten million people for artificial water???
Far better to quickly as possible restore the 2,500 year old water system developed by the Persians:
“AI Overview:
==The ancient Persian water system, known as qanat (or karez), was a highly successful, 3,000-year-old engineering marvel that transported groundwater from mountains to arid plains via gently sloping, hand-dug underground tunnels. Relying solely on gravity, this system minimized evaporation and enabled sustainable agriculture, urban settlement, and cooling in desert climates.
*Key Aspects of the Persian Qanat System:
—Design & Structure: A qanat begins with a “mother well” tapped into an aquifer at a high elevation. A horizontal tunnel, often several kilometers long, runs gently downhill, connecting to a series of vertical ventilation shafts used for excavation, maintenance, and aeration.
—No Evaporation Loss: By keeping water underground, it prevents the severe evaporation loss that would occur with surface canals in desert heat, notes WaterHistory.org.
—Long-Term Sustainability: The system relies on gravity (not pumps), making it environmentally friendly and durable. Many, such as the 2,500-year-old system in Gonabad, remained in use for centuries.
—Urban & Agricultural Benefits: Qanats allowed cities like Yazd, Nishapur, and Tehran to exist, providing water for agricultural irrigation, sanitation, and drinking, say Facebook posts and YouTube videos.
—Supplementary Technology: In addition to water, the system worked with badgirs (wind-catchers) to create natural air conditioning and yakhchals (ice pits) to store ice through the summer, reports the BBC.
*Major Examples & Legacy:
—UNESCO World Heritage Sites: Eleven select Qanats in Iran, such as Ghasabeh Qanat, represent this technology, says the UNESCO World Heritage Centre.
—Shushtar Historical Hydraulic System: A 3rd-century CE Sassanid-era complex of tunnels, canals, and dams that powered watermills and irrigated vast areas, according to Instagram.
—Historical Impact: This technology spread throughout the Middle East, North Africa, and as far as Spain and China, notes the World History Encyclopedia.
Note: The qanats continue to provide water for many regions in Asia and North Africa today.”
I wonder if we could use this system in our own country. Especially in drier areas of the west which already are suffering from insufficient water supplies and political conflict over scarce river water. Not only that, but drying of coastal wetlands when the rivers are robbed deprives us of important wildlife and fishing nurseries important for both commercial and recreational fishing. Unpopulated wetlands are also important to the health of migratory birds, and lack of them may be contributing to bird flu with major loss of commercial poultry and high egg and chicken costs. For steak lovers, consumer needs to pay more for chicken even increases the price of red meat. Even in the Mid Atlantic area, we have been dry very long. I even saw a machine recently set in the ground near a police station, apparently to measure ground tremor possibly for fear of ground collapse. Tehran actually has had a lot of problems with these big holes and drop of land. The undersoil is simply drying out.
Now that would be a 10 piece chess move.
Yeah but you overlooked on imconvenient detail: That involved boots on the ground and hunderds of thousands of casualties.
Agree.
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