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China Is Facing a Demographic Bomb— and it Could Handcuff Beijing’s Ambitions
New York Post ^ | Jan. 25, 2026 | Nicholas Eberstadt

Posted on 01/26/2026 12:19:38 PM PST by nickcarraway

Last week, Beijing’s release of China’s national birth count for 2025 left demographers stunned. The national birth total plummeted by over 17% from 2024 to 2025, the PRC disclosed.

That sort of precipitous drop is almost never seen in stable modern societies, where births tend to inch up or down from one year to the next. A decline of this magnitude qualifies as a demographic shock of the sort typically associated with dire calamities like famine or plague — a sign that a disaster or convulsion is taking place.

And these are only the latest readings from the astonishing birth crash that’s commenced under Xi Jinping’s rule: a drop by over half in just eight years that shows no sign as yet of abating.

(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...


TOPICS: China; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: china; demographis; fertility

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This is big. I can't be sure if this was actually an unimaginably precipitous drop, or they were lying about the previous rate and they are catching up, but it's hard to believe they'd deliberately flash such an alarming sign, but maybe the real number is worse. This puts them significantly worse than Japan. This is death spiral territory. And they have actually been giving bad numbers publicly that they try to hide. It must have been very painful for them to admit their population was lower than India.

Also, the average age in China was supposed to surpass the U.S. by 2030, but it probably already has.

1 posted on 01/26/2026 12:19:38 PM PST by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway
A decline of this magnitude qualifies as a demographic shock of the sort typically associated with dire calamities like famine or plague — a sign that a disaster or convulsion is taking place.

Either that, or they've decided to stop lying about the numbers because (1) They know that we know they've been BS for many years and (2) to let their people know there's a problem to be corrected if they want to help.

2 posted on 01/26/2026 12:23:13 PM PST by Carry_Okie (The tree of liberty needs a rope.)
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To: nickcarraway

Maybe people don’t see bringing children into a world where every individual is crushed under the heel of collectivism. Born to be slaves to the state.


3 posted on 01/26/2026 12:23:44 PM PST by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is opinion or satire. Or both.)
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To: nickcarraway

There is a theory floating around that China’s population is way, way lower than they announce.


4 posted on 01/26/2026 12:24:52 PM PST by wizardoz (The greatest wealth is to live content with little. -Plato)
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To: nickcarraway
When more Ukrainian men die for Little z’s folly, the numbers of unpaired Ukrainian women will peak, and be perfect mates for these Chinese men.

Little z has really thought this one through, I give him that!

Go Little z!

5 posted on 01/26/2026 12:25:51 PM PST by ConservativeMind (Trump: Befuddling Democrats, Republicans, and the Media for the benefit of the US and all mankind.)
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To: nickcarraway

the EU, USA, Japan and China all suffer from materialism, collectivism and post-modern ideology.

Humans will not reproduce when they are under crushing debt, live atomized lives outside family, are counted and sorted merely as economic units of production and consumption, and are subject to constant political ideology.

China, under the total societal control of the CCP, is merely suffering even greater consequences - but we all suffer the same disease.


6 posted on 01/26/2026 12:26:30 PM PST by PGR88
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To: nickcarraway

They are ALWAYS lying. But I think COVID may have actually been worse in China. Combine that with so many baby girls aborted during their one-baby period.

They wanted fewer mouths to feed. They got their wish.


7 posted on 01/26/2026 12:26:55 PM PST by Vermont Lt
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To: nickcarraway

“””A decline of this magnitude qualifies as a demographic shock of the sort typically associated with dire calamities like famine or plague — a sign that a disaster or convulsion is taking place.””””


If all of the hype regarding AI ROBOTS doing the work, then it seems to me that fewer babies and more old people is no big deal.

For too long most countries of the world have based their social services on the premise that the younger people will finance the cost of social services for the older people.

Again, if the AI ROBOT hype actually is true, then it will be the AI ROBOTS who fund the social services.


8 posted on 01/26/2026 12:27:44 PM PST by Presbyterian Reporter
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To: Presbyterian Reporter

And eventually, the people can die off, and leave it to the robots?


9 posted on 01/26/2026 12:34:02 PM PST by nickcarraway
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To: ConservativeMind

LOL. You haven’t checked the birth rate in Russia, or the insanely high suicide rate - the highest of any country near it’s size?


10 posted on 01/26/2026 12:35:35 PM PST by nickcarraway
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To: Presbyterian Reporter

“it seems to me that fewer babies and more old people is no big deal.”

If it going on long enough the planet will become extinct.


11 posted on 01/26/2026 12:36:23 PM PST by alternatives?
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To: nickcarraway

Peter Zeihan writes about this topic


12 posted on 01/26/2026 12:37:54 PM PST by HereInTheHeartland (“I don't really care, Margaret.””)
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To: Carry_Okie
I mentioned that in my comment. But they will only release info as they have to, and they will still manage it.

to let their people know there's a problem to be corrected if they want to help.

Well, that won't happen. They will not seek any input from their subjects, and they aren't going to purposefully give them any information to make their subjects question their wisdom.

13 posted on 01/26/2026 12:38:04 PM PST by nickcarraway
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To: HereInTheHeartland

Gordon Chang writes about the collapse of China - has for a long time.


14 posted on 01/26/2026 12:38:44 PM PST by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway

I’ll check him out as well


15 posted on 01/26/2026 12:39:38 PM PST by HereInTheHeartland (“I don't really care, Margaret.””)
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To: nickcarraway
I can't be sure if this was actually an unimaginably precipitous drop, or they were lying about the previous rate

The CCP lies. All the time. About everything. Even things that it makes no sense to lie about.

Their food is poison, their land is poisoned, their products are poisoned they are the only country in the world where deserts are actually growing.

Their leadership IQ must be below 50. Everything they do is stupid.

They had everything and turned it into nothing. Because that is what the CCP does.

16 posted on 01/26/2026 12:39:58 PM PST by Harmless Teddy Bear (The tree accused of killed Sonny Bono was planted.)
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To: ConservativeMind
There are no Chinese single men that are worthy of marrying.

They are dull unemployed drunkards who die young.

Like the Russians.

17 posted on 01/26/2026 12:42:15 PM PST by Harmless Teddy Bear (The tree accused of killed Sonny Bono was planted.)
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To: Presbyterian Reporter
Again, if the AI ROBOT hype actually is true, then it will be the AI ROBOTS who fund the social services.

China is really into building AI robots. "Social Services" includes sex robots for perverted men who can't link up with women. China will die a slow death from AI robot induced orgies. One reason they want to invade Taiwan, is to get access to those AI chip factories for building robots. /s

18 posted on 01/26/2026 12:48:00 PM PST by roadcat ( )
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To: wizardoz
There is a theory floating around that China’s population is way, way lower than they announce.

I don't buy it, as historically China has always had a huge population relative to the rest of the planet, and there is circumstantial data like the number of cell phones in circulation in China that becomes hard to explain if the population were really as low as some of these ultra-low China population theories suggest.

19 posted on 01/26/2026 12:49:55 PM PST by EnderWiggin1970
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To: nickcarraway

This is going to happen and a helluva lot sooner than 2049. A big part of China’s rise in the last 30 years was fueled by demographics. Their birth rates plunged and their population is aging rapidly. The median population age in the US is 38.9. The median population age in China is already 40.2. In 2020 The median population age in the US was 38.9 while in China it was 38.4. That’s what I mean about how their population is aging rapidly. In the last 5 years their population has gotten about 2 years older while ours hasn’t budged.

China has already aged as much in a generation as western countries slowly did over 150 years since the start of the industrial revolution. A huge cohort of Chinese workers are going to be retired in about 10 years. Youth unemployment has been a problem in China for about a decade already. So a loss of skilled workers will be felt acutely. Demographers have long said “China will grow old before it grows rich.”

The good news is if they were going to be reckless and engage in military adventurism thinking “We’ve got several million excess young males so a war in which we lost a few million of them wouldn’t hurt us demographically” is over. Those guys are too old to be used as cannon fodder now.


20 posted on 01/26/2026 12:50:43 PM PST by FLT-bird
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