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Posted on 01/18/2026 11:29:48 PM PST by Cronos
To get its citizens to have babies, the Chinese Communist Party has pulled every lever.
The efforts have largely failed. For the fourth year in a row, China reported more deaths than births in 2025 as its birthrate plunged to a record low, leaving its population smaller and older.
The government on Monday said 7.92 million babies were born last year, down from 9.54 million in 2024. The number of people who died in 2025, 11.31 million, continued to climb. The latest population figures were reported alongside economic data that showed China’s economy grew 5 percent in 2025.
The number of births for every 1,000 people fell to 5.63, the lowest level on record since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, according to official government data.
...On Jan. 1, officials placed a 13 percent value-added tax on contraceptive drugs and condoms, a move that has been met with a mix of indifference, mockery and derision.
On Chinese social media, people commented that the price increase was annoying, but it was still cheaper than raising a child.
For many young people, the high costs of raising a child are especially discouraging amid a slowing economy and a property crisis.
More glaringly, most people don’t seem to want to get married.
“You can really feel that the number of people in Beijing who actually want to get married is shrinking,” he said. “More and more young people just don’t want to do it anymore.”
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
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And countries like India, Bangladesh, the UAE etc have below replacement rate births.
The average age in China will surpass that of the United States by 2030 at the latest - if it already hasn’t.
Taiwan too?
The difference is China mandated it - starting a brutal one child policy in 1979. Did they think they could press a button and reverse it?
Not true. Israel is significantly above replacement rate
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israels-birth-rate-remains-highest-in-oecd-by-far-at-2-9-children-per-woman/amp/
As far as I know, Yes, in Taiwan, the number of deaths is significantly exceeding the number of births.
2025 data shows 4.62 births per 100,000 people and 8.58 deaths
Thanks.
I wrote that ‘ ]
Btw, this reduction in birth rate is not just a Western phenomenon. It is happening in every single country, even in sub Saharan Africa and the Islamic world.”
Yes, Israel has a birth rate above replacement levels but Since roughly 2018, Israel’s overall fertility rate has seen a gradual decline, dropping from about 3.1 down to 2.8 today.
I think it’s been falling for longer than that, by upwards of a decade longer.
Israel’s love lie. So do conservatives. The US conservative birth rate is above the replacement rate.
Netwise, liberals lose about 1%/year and conservatives gain 0.5%/year.
The US is becoming more conservative, state by state, and liberals can’t stop it.
Are you sure about “US conservative birth rate is higher than replacement?
“. In contrast, counties that had more than 75% of their vote share for Trump had a median total fertility rate of 1.84.”
This is higher than the liberal rate of 1.37 but ot is not higher than replacement rate
This is what Grok told me.
Last time I checked, the math works out to be a slow growth for conservatives, while a relatively rapid drop off for liberals.
**American conservatives generally have higher birth rates (or fertility rates) than liberals**, according to multiple recent studies and surveys from sources like the Institute for Family Studies (IFS), General Social Survey (GSS) trends, and analyses of CDC data. This “conservative fertility advantage” has existed for decades but has widened significantly since the 1990s–2000s, with the gap growing even more in recent years (including 2024–2025 data).
### Key Findings on Fertility Differences
- **Completed fertility (women who have finished childbearing)**: For women born in the late 1970s (now in their mid-to-late 40s), conservative women average about **2.1 children**, compared to **1.8** for moderates and **1.5** for liberals (Institute for Family Studies, based on survey data from 2021–2025).
- **Younger cohorts**: Among women born in the late 1980s, conservatives still average around **2.1**, moderates **1.9**, and liberals **1.7**. The gap narrows slightly in very recent cohorts but persists, with liberals having fewer children so far.
- **Childlessness and large families**: Liberals are about **2.3 times** more likely to be childless (around 32% vs. 14% for conservatives), while conservatives are nearly **1.8 times** more likely to have three or more children (Institute for Family Studies and related reports from 2025).
- **Desired family size**: Conservatives consistently want more children — often above replacement level (2.1) — while liberals desire fewer, with the youngest liberal cohorts wanting below replacement (around 1.8).
This pattern holds for both self-identified ideology (conservative/liberal) and partisan leanings (Republican/Democrat), though the ideological divide is often sharper.
### Geographic and Political Correlates
The divide shows up strongly at the geographic level:
- Counties that voted heavily for Trump (more Republican/conservative) in 2024 had median total fertility rates (TFR) around **1.84**, compared to **1.31** in heavily Democratic counties.
- The top 20% most Republican counties averaged a TFR of **1.76**, versus **1.37** in the top 20% most Democratic counties — a substantial gap in a national context where the overall U.S. TFR is around 1.6.
Red states (Republican-leaning) consistently show higher fertility than blue states, with the top 10 highest-fertility states in recent CDC data (e.g., 2023) all being red.
### Why the Gap Exists and Is Growing
The difference is linked to factors like:
- Higher rates of marriage (especially earlier marriage) among conservatives.
- Stronger cultural/religious emphasis on family and childbearing.
- Broader trends where fertility has fallen more steeply among progressives/liberals.
The gap has grown over time — small or nonexistent in the 1970s–1980s, but clear and widening since the mid-1990s, with further increases post-2020.
Note that overall U.S. fertility is declining across the board (well below replacement level), including among conservatives — but the relative advantage persists and appears to be strengthening based on the latest available data (through 2025 reports). This has sparked discussions about long-term political and demographic implications.
This is higher than the liberal rate of 1.37 but ot is not higher than replacement rate.
The Left is in control of all the important institutions so they can convert Conservatives to the Left through nonstop propaganda.
yes, Conservatives are having more babies compared to liberals.
but both are well below replacement rate
It will take care of itself, eventually.
Yyyeahhh. For an ethnicity that is generally considered to be more proficient at math than others, it’s somewhat baffling that this comes as a surprise to them.
China is getting old (average population age) in one generation at a rate that took western countries 150 years to do.
Chinese economic growth figures are a joke....even government officials have admitted as much. China's economy has slowed a lot in recent years as the country has aged and the workforce is shrinking - and the burden of caring for elderly people is increasing. China will grow old before it grows rich. There simply is not enough time for the economy to grow sufficiently before the average population age soars very high - a lot of this is thanks to the one child policy which suppressed the birth rate for 40 years.
The fertility crash in Iran is astonishing: 6.63 children per woman in 1980 to 1.44 children per woman in 2024.
I wonder if it ever occurred to the Mullahs they might be on the wrong track?
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