Why this time is different for Iran

Stabroek News ^ | January 13, 2026 | Vali Nasr

[E. Pluribus Unum]

WASHINGTON, DC – Iranians have taken to the streets to protest the collapse of the country’s currency and surging inflation, with many calling for an end to the Islamic Republic. Yet the government’s response has differed from earlier waves of unrest. Whereas Iran’s rulers were quick to suppress the 2009 Green Movement and the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom uprising, the security forces were slow to react as the current protests intensified. Rather than brutally cracking down, President Masoud Pezeshkian initially responded with belt-tightening reforms to free up funds for subsidies to the poor.

But this stopgap didn’t hold. While the poor may have been mollified, those in the middle rungs of society bore the costs and joined the protests in greater numbers. What started as an expression of economic discontent soon became a political uprising. Only after protests erupted across the country on January 8 did the regime clamp down in earnest.

Why was the reaction to political dissent so different this time? The current protests are taking place in the shadow of Iran’s 12-day war with Israel last June. Iranian officials are still reeling from the conflict and operating on the assumption that it could resume at any time. That threat looms larger than domestic political unrest, because Israel’s battering of Hezbollah and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria have left Iran with little deterrence against foreign intervention.

Adding insult to injury, Iran is no longer able to prevent foreign actors from boosting popular discontent at home. During the June 2025 war, Iranians did rally to the flag, and the regime reacted by relaxing its enforcement of religious rules, most notably regarding hijabs. But the current protests pose a dilemma: cracking down too hard could undo the fragile understanding that the regime forged with the population after...

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TOPICS: Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: iran

[frank ballenger]

“Maybe This Time” from Cabaret first sung by Liza Minelli in 1972. Around 10 covers later.

I’ll be home at last
Not a loser anymore
Like the last time
and the time before.

Everybody loves a winner
So nobody loved me.
Lady Peaceful, Lady Happy
That’s what I long to be

Well, all the odds are,
they’re in my favor,
Something’s bound to begin.

It’s gotta happen,
happen sometime
Maybe this time I’ll win.

[Opinionated Blowhard]

I see all these articles about how this time its different. I hope its true. But so far, it isn’t. The brave protestors protested. The Iranian government is slaughtering them.

[larryjohnson]

Death tolls maybe by Hamas news reporters

[MplsSteve]

At what point do we or Israel get involved?

Caches of weapons smuggled in to the protestors?

Cruise missile or drone attacks on IRGC and Basij command and control facilities, barracks, etc.

I fear the longer this goes on, many protestors are gonna back off, not wanting to be killed and the revolt will fail.