4 Predictions for China in 2026

Compared with what lies further ahead, next year may be relatively quiet for China. The following year, 2027, marks both the end of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s unprecedented third term and a frequently cited benchmark for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s ability to attack Taiwan.

Though Beijing is keeping a lower profile amid global turbulence, there is plenty of trouble bubbling under the surface. What can we expect from China in the year ahead? Below, we offer our four best bets.

A Turn on Women’s Rights

Reversing such trends is notoriously difficult, as much of East Asia has already learned. More supportive policies, such as stronger financial and legal support for parents, would help. But local government budgets are already strained, and Xi is ideologically hostile to welfare measures.

Instead, demographic anxiety is more likely to fuel a reactionary turn on women’s rights. The Chinese government has repeatedly attacked feminism and arrested feminists, while officials obsess over perceived decline of traditional masculinity in pop culture.

Most troubling are signs of pressure on reproductive rights. The one-child era showed China’s willingness to violate women’s autonomy, including forced sterilizations. In recent years, there have been signs of renewed state intervention. In 2023, a Chengdu court ruled that abortion without the husband’s consent violated men’s rights, and more recently, one county in Yunnan urged women to report their menstrual cycles to authorities.

The other predictions are:

A Rocky Relationship With Japan

As the year begins, China and Japan remain locked in one of their sharpest confrontations since the 2012 Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands crisis. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s repeated suggestion that her country could intervene in a future Taiwan conflict has infuriated China, prompting canceled Japanese performances, naval standoffs, and a trade cooperation freeze.

A Failed Economic Pivot

China is still trying to pivot its economy toward domestic consumption—long an elusive goal. A recent article by Xi has elevated this as a government priority, made more urgent by global uncertainty and the prospect of a renewed trade war with the United States.

The effort is likely to falter for a few reasons, chief among them that Chinese households simply aren’t confident enough in the future to spend. The declining birthrate reflects deep anxiety about the future among young adults, while the COVID-19 pandemic shattered trust in government competence and convinced people that they needed to save for future disasters.

And the biggie prediction:

An AI Disaster?

Here’s the wild swing for the year: China may see a major, high-profile disaster—on the scale of the Wenzhou train crash or Tianjin explosion—with a root cause being the misuse of artificial intelligence.

The launch of DeepSeek-R1 in early 2025 resulted in a new phase in China’s AI push. The country has been more cautious (and less swayed by tech mogul hype) on AI governance than the United States. But at the ground level, the pattern looks familiar: a rush to deploy technologies without clear limits or understanding, producing waves of failed projects.

Using the terms “court” and “rights” about a large prison camp (China) is disgusting.

Combining these terms with other words

Women’s Rights

Men’s Rights

is even more ridiculous and disgusting.

To the Chicoms, humans are chattel, commodities. Kill or enslave a few dozen? Or a few million? It’s all the same to the Chicoms.

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