The World Ahead 2026: Military competition in space will intensify

The Economist ^ | 11/15/2025 | Shashank Joshi, Defence editor, The Economist

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AMERICAN GENERALS once spoke in euphemisms about the possibility of fighting a war in space, preferring to talk about space “dominance” rather than the grim prospect of shattering satellites in orbit. Now they speak openly about the need to launch weapons from, within and towards space in any future conflict with Russia or China. In 2026 there are five areas to watch that could shape the direction of this intensifying competition.

One is President Donald Trump’s plan to build a “Golden Dome” missile-defence shield to protect America. Much of that project is a rebranding of older, more prosaic efforts to detect, track and intercept drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles directed at America. But in 2026 Mr Trump’s vision may come into sharper focus. Will he order the construction of new interceptors to complement those currently stationed in Alaska and California? Will he push ahead with plans for space-based lasers? Either would be hugely expensive. Mr Trump’s budget request for the 2026 fiscal year involves a 40% boost for the US Space Force, a service he created in his first term. That might require cuts in other areas.

A second area is the progress made by Elon Musk, the owner of SpaceX, and a former close aide to Mr Trump. Mr Musk has said that his Starship launch vehicle—the most powerful ever built—will be sent to Mars for the first time in 2026, albeit without crew. That is looking unlikely. But Starship’s success could have major implications both for America’s civilian space programme and its military ambitions, given the vehicle’s enormous cargo capacity. If a war in space were to result in the destruction of satellites, America would be in a far better position to replenish its losses if Starship were working reliably. But strained relations between Mr Musk and Mr Trump might complicate matters.

Third is whether Russia chooses to tear up the rules that apply in space. In 2024 America’s government warned that Russia was developing a space-based nuclear weapon capable of destroying large numbers of satellites in low-Earth orbit in one go—including, for example, Mr Trump’s proposed laser interceptors. Such a weapon would violate the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which prohibits the placement of weapons of mass destruction in orbit. Cosmos 2553, a Russian satellite launched in February 2022, the month Russia invaded Ukraine, has come under particular suspicion, though it is thought to have a dummy warhead rather than a live nuke. Western intelligence will be watching to see whether Russia continues to test this system.

A fourth trend is more countries embracing offensive space operations. In 2025 Britain said for the first time that it would build “counter-space” capabilities, a term that encompasses kinetic and electronic means of attacking or disrupting satellites. France recently conducted a “rendezvous and proximity operation”, or rpo, with America, against an unspecified but suspected Russian satellite, a manoeuvre that could be used offensively in a conflict. America and China have also manoeuvred close to one another’s satellites. Expect more of this kind of orbital shadow-boxing as armed forces contemplate conflict in space.

Finally, new technologies and companies are likely to pierce the fog of war in space, as on Earth. Space surveillance—observing objects, and their movements, in space—can be expensive, requiring powerful radars. But the private sector is increasingly capable of satellite-spotting. Maxar, an American firm, uses satellites to take photographs of Earth from orbit. It now also trains its cameras upwards against other satellites, producing remarkably clear pictures of Chinese and other craft that would once have been the preserve of spy agencies.

Slingshot Aerospace, another company, operates a network of 150 telescopes that track satellites. When Russia’s Cosmos 2553 briefly spun out of its orbit in April 2025, sensors from Slingshot were able to track its tumbling. Military competition in space is growing more intense with every year—but it is, at least, also becoming a little more transparent. ■

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Review

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But Starship’s success could have major implications both for America’s civilian space programme and its military ambitions, given the vehicle’s enormous cargo capacity.

Japan recently revealed successful tests of kinetic energy weapons, with a railgun on a naval ship that successfully fired on other ships. Starship could carry that railgun and its hardware into orbit. Japan built the railgun to counter the threat of high-velocity missile attacks from enemies, a technology that the USA abandoned a few years ago. Maybe the USA should reactivate the railgun research.